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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,901
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:41am Aug 17, 2009 4:41am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
From what I read on this thread I've learnt that the most profitable pair, while trading this method, is gbp/jpy. What other pairs would you recommend based on your experience?
Eur/jpy is the other pair backtested and works similarly as gbp/jpy

both pair are testing the support. whether it can break it

let see it
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trade safe
  • #1,902
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:57am Aug 17, 2009 4:57am
By using pivots, even though they can and may have effect, you are complicating this wonderful system. In that case why not use higher TF trend lines, etc, too?
The backtest results did not include pivots and the results were great.
I like the simple, but powerful, strategy as introduced bij Ace.
Of course you could get better results by using pivots, but then you will have to do much screen time and have a new exit and reenter strategy.
  • #1,903
  • Aug 17, 2009 5:46am Aug 17, 2009 5:46am
GBPJPY broke thru the monthly pivot on the down side, for anyone who follows that. Downward spiral from here? I have moved SL to BE now.
  • #1,904
  • Aug 17, 2009 5:56am Aug 17, 2009 5:56am
Yes, I realize that additional pivot lines can complicate things, but anyway, I think that weekly and monthly pivots (daily pivots are not important in this method, I think) can at least explain current price action. Let's have a look at this chart:

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We can see that PA was being hold by weekly S1. And maybe we can use it for SL levels, or by looking on smaller TFs we can check whether that level constitutes strong S/R or not. Just my thoughts.

P.S.

And I'm always afraid of complicating and changing the original strategy - this almost always deteriorates winning stratego into the losing one. That's why I like to hear some opinions.
  • #1,905
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:12am Aug 17, 2009 6:12am
Sorry, Garfield. I meant which excel calculation sheet that has been posted here do you use?

Thanks.

Quoting garfield75
Excel 2007
  • #1,906
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:12am Aug 17, 2009 6:12am
hi,

my thoughts are this, i dont look at pivots at all....

why???

In all the backtests that people have done on this strategy, i would put money on none of them having plotted the pivots for each week they tested and managing their trades accordingly... (i'll now wait for someone to shoot me down... lol).

so are their backtests in profit?? yes... (again waiting for someone to shoot me down..)

i ran a visual test since January, never looked at one pivot and ended in profit.

Ace in the 1st post doesnt mention pivots either...

just my 2 pips worth.....

currently short and at BE..

many pips to you all
  • #1,907
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:26am Aug 17, 2009 6:26am
Quoting grant18265
hi,

my thoughts are this, i dont look at pivots at all....

why???

In all the backtests that people have done on this strategy, i would put money on none of them having plotted the pivots for each week they tested and managing their trades accordingly... (i'll now wait for someone to shoot me down... lol).

so are their backtests in profit?? yes... (again waiting for someone to shoot me down..)

i ran a visual test since January, never looked at one pivot and ended in profit.

Ace in the 1st post doesnt mention pivots either......
Ok. But what is the best SL and TP policy regarding this strategy? I'd like to have at least SL set as low as possible. Today, after the PA had broken weekly S1 level, I moved SL to that level to protect my profit. Maybe I'm just too afraid of enormous stop losses.
  • #1,908
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:41am Aug 17, 2009 6:41am
It depend to tp. Here they use sl = tp that mean if you achieve tp1 move sl to price.
  • #1,909
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:48am Aug 17, 2009 6:48am
if you are worried about big losses trade smaller lot sizes...

i decide what % i want to risk per trade, then open the lot size where the SL will lose that %...

its not how big the SL is its how much you risk....


Ace says to use the opposite side of box for this system, moving to BE at TP1. Adjust you lot size so that the SL is the % you want to risk...

MM is the key to this system, not how big the SL is..

many pips to you all...
  • #1,910
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:49am Aug 17, 2009 6:49am
Guppy reach TP1, move my stop to BE +20. As per Danno variation.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #1,911
  • Aug 17, 2009 6:57am Aug 17, 2009 6:57am
At the beginning of a trade, the SL is on the opposite side of a box? I.E. when you went short, the SL is set at the top of the 1st of the week 4h candle, correct?
  • #1,912
  • Aug 17, 2009 7:03am Aug 17, 2009 7:03am
correct...

SL at the other side of the box (candle + buffer)
  • #1,913
  • Aug 17, 2009 7:07am Aug 17, 2009 7:07am
Quoting grant18265
correct...

SL at the other side of the box (candle + buffer)
Is there any way to measure the candle's height in pips?
  • #1,914
  • Aug 17, 2009 7:29am Aug 17, 2009 7:29am
on MT 4 i have a tab that looks like a target whihcwhen clicked brings up a data window.

when the hover the cursor over any candle the data box will show the open, close, high, low etc...
  • #1,915
  • Aug 17, 2009 7:47am Aug 17, 2009 7:47am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
Ok. But what is the best SL and TP policy regarding this strategy? I'd like to have at least SL set as low as possible. Today, after the PA had broken weekly S1 level, I moved SL to that level to protect my profit. Maybe I'm just too afraid of enormous stop losses.
My SL has just been hit. +67 pips on this trade. Maybe it wasn't a good idea to set SL there, but anyway I'm glad I cought some pips. It was my 1st trade with this strategy so I'm a little bit cautious.

P.S.

If gpb/jpu will continue to fall down, is it possible to re-enter this trade? Or should I just wait to the next week?
  • #1,916
  • Aug 17, 2009 7:59am Aug 17, 2009 7:59am
i'd wait...

congrats on the pips...
  • #1,917
  • Aug 17, 2009 8:32am Aug 17, 2009 8:32am
August has been an awesome month for the Box system. I closed out one position on GBP/JPY at TP1 (119 pips) and one position on EUR/JPY for 89 pips.

My remaining position on each pair is now set at BE +20 (thanks Danno) and it's a free ride the rest of the week. There's nothing like guaranteed profits for the week on Monday morning.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,918
  • Aug 17, 2009 8:45am Aug 17, 2009 8:45am
Quoting grant18265
hi,

my thoughts are this, i dont look at pivots at all....

why???

In all the backtests that people have done on this strategy, i would put money on none of them having plotted the pivots for each week they tested and managing their trades accordingly... (i'll now wait for someone to shoot me down... lol).

so are their backtests in profit?? yes... (again waiting for someone to shoot me down..)

i ran a visual test since January, never looked at one pivot and ended in profit.

Ace in the 1st post doesnt mention pivots either...

just...
Bingo! I couldn't agree more. This is a breakout system, pure and simple. All the other "stuff" i.e. pivots, fibs, indicators, support and resistance, etc. are valuable tools in technical trading, but have nothing to do with this system.

With that said, I won't argue with any trader who chooses to sit out a week due to technical analysis on their part. But newbies shouldn't be confused that it has anything to do with this system.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,919
  • Aug 17, 2009 9:09am Aug 17, 2009 9:09am
Hi guys,

I just wanted to clarify something about the variations that Danno96 mentioned which with my backtesting, I had impletmented the same set of rules but if anyone or if Danno96 can clarify variation #6 which is
"6) Continue to place as (2) if initial set of trade SL on the next candle"
What does that mean?

thank you
Keeping Life Simple
  • #1,920
  • Aug 17, 2009 9:11am Aug 17, 2009 9:11am
Quoting pips info
Hi vito88id,

I think most of us triggle short instead of long. I think you have set your pending order wrongly, I think you set it as buy limit and not sell stop. That's y you get buy and not sell...

it is depend on you whether you want to let it floating or close the trade, becos if it move up, then you will earn, if it follow Ace system then you loss...
good luck

Hi Pips info,

thanks for your input. I appreciate it. I must have done a mistake. I better trade demo first.
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