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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #881
  • Aug 13, 2009 1:17pm Aug 13, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting dhh
no worry, i didn't get any impression you were criticizing anything.

trying to get in at the beginning of the trend was one of my mistakes too. this is only your second week, too early to say what works for you or not. and you seem to have a plan now, just follow it and use discipline, i think you have a good starting point.

the 15m trades looks good and gave you some pips.
Thanks dhh! Can you please give the links to the videos you have mentioned above?
  • #882
  • Aug 13, 2009 8:25pm Aug 13, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting dhh
i missed it. at the time, strong divergence also on 15m and 30m
hi dhh, i'm no expert, but allow me to share my 2 cents. The setup was okay, but it's too close to the US Trade Balance news release that was just 15~20 min away. For me, I dare not enter any trade 30min before any major news release, because if i'm not able to move my stop to BE, there's a good chance i'll be shaken out by the market response to news.

Anyone care to comment on this point?
  • #883
  • Aug 13, 2009 10:44pm Aug 13, 2009 10:44pm
Warren,
yes, several seasoned traders in FF avoid trading within the period of news releases, specially important news releases like NFP &/or Central bank rate decisions. some dont trade +/-30min of the news release, some +/-1 hr, & i think some dont trade the whole day of that important news release.

Hopefully i can comment more about the recent posts soon. our internet is crappy now... .. most likely, underwater Asia internet/telco cables were damaged by the recent Japan earthquakes...
  • #884
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:25am Aug 14, 2009 2:25am
Quoting Warren
hi dhh, i'm no expert, but allow me to share my 2 cents. The setup was okay, but it's too close to the US Trade Balance news release that was just 15~20 min away. For me, I dare not enter any trade 30min before any major news release, because if i'm not able to move my stop to BE, there's a good chance i'll be shaken out by the market response to news.

Anyone care to comment on this point?

That is an interesting point. I also don't trade 2 hours before NFP and rates and 5 minutes before other major news. But, during backtest I know nothing about the news, and the results are good.
  • #885
  • Aug 14, 2009 7:15am Aug 14, 2009 7:15am
Quoting Warren
hi dhh, i'm no expert, but allow me to share my 2 cents. The setup was okay, but it's too close to the US Trade Balance news release that was just 15~20 min away. For me, I dare not enter any trade 30min before any major news release, because if i'm not able to move my stop to BE, there's a good chance i'll be shaken out by the market response to news.

Anyone care to comment on this point?
Hi dhh, i just realize that the setup was about 40min AFTER the Trade Balance news. So I would have traded this one. Sorry for my mistake. Anyway, good to know how you guys trade/avoid to trade news.
  • #886
  • Aug 14, 2009 7:38am Aug 14, 2009 7:38am
15m range market, pin@BB, stopped out BE(demo). for trades like this, i think how you manage it makes the difference
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  • #887
  • Aug 14, 2009 8:06am Aug 14, 2009 8:06am
I took a loss on this one today. Not sure if it was just a bad entry or I should have went to BE quicker.

I thought it was a pull back from the uptrend. I got in on the break, it shot up some 3 pips and reversed right away.

Risk was 8 pips, the highest it got was +3 before reversing. Good trade that just ended a loss, or bad entry? I would think going to BE at +3 is a bit premature.

There were some BIG bars moving around on 5m, so maybe that was a good reason to stay out (since that type of PA indicates someone is trying to move the market around, and its not "real" market PA)? Or perhaps the pin is too far below the middle BB, and it should be considered a breach of support?

Any comments?
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  • #888
  • Aug 14, 2009 8:08am Aug 14, 2009 8:08am
Quoting dhh
15m range market, pin@BB, stopped out BE(demo). for trades like this, i think how you manage it makes the difference
Nice that you got out on BE, looks like a perfect way to manage that one.

I guess I will start watching the 15m too, looks like some nice opportunities on there.
  • #889
  • Aug 14, 2009 10:26am Aug 14, 2009 10:26am
vijay s.,
are u talking of the second red candle after the black PB?
how many pips was your target on this trade?
in shorter timeframes (M30 & below), we must always be ready to quickly put stop to BE or kill the trade fi something's wrong..

my thoughts.... jmho
the trigger PB should have been the black PB (prior your traded "PB"). but even that PB was not triggered, to me that was NO Trade as well.
u are correct: the fact that the PB u took closed (& with the entire candle) below the mid-BB, it should've been easily a NO BUY trade. if u want to trade a retrace to the mid-BB, we ideally want PB closing above & not below the mid-BB (if uptrend) with its nose touching, barely touching or most ideally piercing/breaching the mid-BB.
u can say it was on a mini trend, but looking at M15 - H1, u can see that price is in a range between 1.4250 - 1.43 (noting the limited/minor breaches above & below that range).
if u look at M30, this turns out to be a upside headfake ("fairytale"/unrealized upmove), MACD shows bear.div.
U could have also entertained the idea of shorting since that time of your trade, since price was below the mid-BB.

Hope this helps...
in case this post is not that clear to u or the others,
i'll try & put up charts later (to illustrate better), probably this weekend....
  • #890
  • Aug 14, 2009 1:46pm Aug 14, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting vijay s.
Here is a setup I'm looking at trying to start playing. It just formed.

No trend as the BB is FLAT. Pin bar off an extreme. Basically this is the same as picking a bottom/top of a range. When the ranging is confirmed, it should be easy pips right?

Might be too early to enter here as no confirmation of range.
it seem to early to confirm the range to me too. the current chart looks more contracting than ranging. the pin looks too small to me, but the divergence should help it a little. just my views.
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  • #891
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:04pm Aug 14, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting ira
Thanks dhh! Can you please give the links to the videos you have mentioned above?
i was just suggesting videos in general and in addition to books, nothing specific. but here are a few pointers:
1. J16 guest videos here
2. youtube: just search for technical analysis, price action, or candlestick etc. there are enough to keep you busy.
i recommend #1 above the most.

i'm still learning myself, but just one more sugguestion to people new to trading in general:
it is not about how much or how fast you go through the material that counts, it is how you select the material then study it well then apply it and get good at it.
  • #892
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:07pm Aug 14, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting Warren
Hi dhh, i just realize that the setup was about 40min AFTER the Trade Balance news. So I would have traded this one. Sorry for my mistake. Anyway, good to know how you guys trade/avoid to trade news.
no prob.
i draw news times on my chart so i won't miss them.
  • #893
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:12pm Aug 14, 2009 2:12pm
Quote
i was just suggesting videos in general and in addition to books.......
dhh,
i agree...
more specifically, the james16 Group guest videos are found here.
add to that the james16 thread here in FF.
&yes again, it's how u apply it, absorb it & get good at it (consistency).
  • #894
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:27pm Aug 14, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting vijay s.
I took a loss on this one today. Not sure if it was just a bad entry or I should have went to BE quicker.

I thought it was a pull back from the uptrend. I got in on the break, it shot up some 3 pips and reversed right away.

Risk was 8 pips, the highest it got was +3 before reversing. Good trade that just ended a loss, or bad entry? I would think going to BE at +3 is a bit premature.

There were some BIG bars moving around on 5m, so maybe that was a good reason to stay out (since that type of PA indicates someone is trying to move the market around,...
vijay covered it well above.
edit: i meant supreme covered it well above

for me, i wouldn't trade against the div. second, you said it yourself, the pin is under midBB and 21ema(and too close to lowerBB). also CPI coming out in a few bars.

seems not a good week, but this is the real training. i'll post a loss trade.
  • #895
  • Aug 14, 2009 2:31pm Aug 14, 2009 2:31pm
lossing trade today -9. i look at the chart now, still seems a good setup at the time. anything i missed?
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  • #896
  • Aug 14, 2009 3:04pm Aug 14, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting dhh
lossing trade today -9. i look at the chart now, still seems a good setup at the time. anything i missed?
Well to start off, I don't trade CT much, just personal preference, but if I do, I prefer it to be at some good location, or a really nice setup, and this is neither. Sort of just floating there in space. Could still very well be profitable, but just a personal preference thing. Trade I took today for CT, check e/j 5 min, nice location, breaking just below some nice resistance and pulling back, plus div, plus end of week profit taking, I don't trade CT much, has to be very appealing.
  • #897
  • Aug 15, 2009 5:21pm Aug 15, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting dhh
lossing trade today -9. i look at the chart now, still seems a good setup at the time. anything i missed?

I lost on this one as well, no biggie it happens, as long as your MM is tight you can always take the risk. As I said before I take some crap setups and risk $1 for $4 or at least $1 for $2 so it does not matter as long as you win 25% or 50%... Also most of the time they work out well but nothing works 100%.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #898
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:26pm Aug 16, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting dhh
lossing trade today -9. i look at the chart now, still seems a good setup at the time. anything i missed?

Hi.
Very poor risk/reward ratio, you bought almost at resistance.
Cheers.
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  • #899
  • Aug 17, 2009 4:24am Aug 17, 2009 4:24am
This is what I like most of all - pin from 21 with the trend.
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  • #900
  • Aug 17, 2009 10:22am Aug 17, 2009 10:22am
Quoting ira
This is what I like most of all - pin from 21 with the trend.
very nice. Another 6 months into backtesting, starting to get a feel for what Ryan is talking about. I think what was a big help coming from the higher time frames to here was to zoom out and get a better idea of the trend of the market. Been working on a 4:1 R/R trading pins off the 18/21 with trend. Still having some trouble with counter trend trades, plan is to get 2:1 but I get a ton of bars that go right to around 1.2:1 and hit off the 18/21 and take off in the other direction.

Pretty flat day today, looking to hit a pin off the bands and let it run.
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