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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,821
  • Aug 15, 2009 10:48am Aug 15, 2009 10:48am
Ace, you have got a good eye and it is admirable how you created this simple and beautiful system. It is a real good one. Idea is simple. No fancy indicators.
I hope guys who start trading it won't screw it by modernizing and "improving" I already saw few looking for filters
  • #1,822
  • Edited 11:34am Aug 15, 2009 11:22am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting shiko
Ace, you have got a good eye and it is admirable how you created this simple and beautiful system. It is a real good one. Idea is simple. No fancy indicators.
I hope guys who start trading it won't screw it by modernizing and "improving" I already saw few looking for filters
I partially agree . . . this is a simple and beautiful system and it's great trading without indicators.

However, in regard to screwing up the system by "modernizing and improving" it, I don't completely agree. If someone is just suggesting changes for the sake of change, then there's not much reason to adapt a great system.

But, when there's a valid suggestion, then why not change? Ace has already adapted the original rules by moving the trade to BE when price reaches TP1. That was a result of a suggestion to improve the system. And, when you do as danno96 did and back up your suggestions with substantial data showing the validity of your suggested changes, then it may indeed be another improvement to an already fantastic system.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,823
  • Aug 15, 2009 11:35am Aug 15, 2009 11:35am
Quoting yen44x
I partially agree . . . this is a simple and beautiful system and it's great trading without indicators.

However, in regard to screwing up the system by "modernizing and improving" it, I don't completely agree. If someone is just suggesting changes for the sake of change, then there's not much reason to adapt a great system. But when you do as danno96 did and back up your suggestions with substantial data showing the validity of your suggestions, then it may indeed be an improvement to an already fantastic system.

Agree! For once, somebody come up with serious backtest including originale system and proposed modification backed by serious backtesting. Instead of just saying .what if we do this, what if we do that, could this be better? Danno gave us perfect example of how modification to a system should be proposed. Hurray for Danno. Danno do know...
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #1,824
  • Aug 15, 2009 12:02pm Aug 15, 2009 12:02pm
Danno...Your backtest results are incredible,,,Thanks for all your efforts,,,,But have a question for the week of 7/6/2009,,,Wouldnt you have been stopped out on the long entry,,,,And missed the big move up for the balance of the week?,,,thx
  • #1,825
  • Aug 15, 2009 12:05pm Aug 15, 2009 12:05pm
sorry,,,i meant the week of june 6th
  • #1,826
  • Aug 15, 2009 1:37pm Aug 15, 2009 1:37pm
btw ace..u already attached a indicator @ the 1st post...so i don't need to find the australia time anymore right??

all i need to do is just follow the indicator ??

pls corrct me if i'm wrong
  • #1,827
  • Aug 15, 2009 5:14pm Aug 15, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting piptalk
sorry,,,i meant the week of june 6th
Hi Piptalk

I manually backtest by looking at chart with ACE's indicators, sorry you're right this is an error on my part. I try to get through the hugh amount of data quickly so there will be few errors in my backtesting.

Hi GreatYves

For my variation rule 10 - Half SL when price move >75% of 1X TP

I still notice there were large number of SL so what I try to test here is to see if price move > than 75% of 1X TP then reverse and hit SL. Can the damage be reduce by moving SL to half.

I've been looking at a number of trading systems on the FF in hope of adopting one to trade for myself. I guess with any system, one must proof if the system work correctly by testing it thoroughly and is comfortable with its risks.

I've done some further backtesting to test how does the system perform under different market dynamics. Summary of my results ar below:

Ace's original strategy

2006: 1,496 pips
2005: 49 pips
2003: 3,468 pips

With my variations

2006: 1,944 pips
2005: 752 pips
2003: 4,497 pips

I've miss 2004 because I've bad data. I'm currently doing 2002 and so far it is as bad as 2005. As you can see above, you'll have a bad time trading it during 2006 & 2005 where the market is flat and ranging with little breakout and no large trending run.

For these years, I'm looking at down scaling the system to 1hr chart or other applying to other currency pair.

  • #1,828
  • Aug 15, 2009 5:36pm Aug 15, 2009 5:36pm
Hi Ace,

Thank again for a great simple system with no indicator. The indicators you provided in your 1st post only work on 4hr chart and xxxJPY currency pairs. Can the indicators be change to allow other timeframe and currency pairs?

  • #1,829
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:43pm Aug 15, 2009 6:43pm
Hi Danno,,,Thanks for getting back,,,I just wanted to make sure my eyes wernt playing tricks on me,,,Thanks again for all your detailed backtesting efforts,,,,,,Good luck trading!!
  • #1,830
  • Aug 15, 2009 10:06pm Aug 15, 2009 10:06pm
Hey great system been modding it a lot to make it work more for me and different things I think I like more.

I don't like a lot of indicators and only use one that sets the box and lines with weekly pivot levels and 3 take profit levels.

I also have been trading a something like this on the 1H charts, I use IBFX and when you hit CTRL Y you get the weekly lines, in the 1H charts you then look at the start of the week and use those candles to decide which way you are going to trade.

Either long or short the past few weeks it has been very profitable making at least a 100 pips then setting a trailling stop until i get stopped out.

Im gonna try and post more details when I get time later today.
  • #1,831
  • Aug 15, 2009 10:07pm Aug 15, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting danno96
Hi Piptalk

I manually backtest by looking at chart with ACE's indicators, sorry you're right this is an error on my part....
Thanks for answer. I plan to trade it no stress. I work day time and intend to adjust sl once a day at end of day. I live EST. I will do with your variations. With ace benediction. It might not be as good as adjusting sl right away but on the long run it might just be the same.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #1,832
  • Aug 15, 2009 10:47pm Aug 15, 2009 10:47pm
I think there are so many variations ( which is a good thing, we are not all robots) that people really need to use some of these ideas and back test for themselves so that they are comfortable with their trading plan. Remember if you start to change things on an emotional level, 9 times out of 10 your gonna fail, so have your system in place and be confident in it at the beginning of the week. So if your new to the system keep it simple and then start to hone it. Remeber too, that your gonna have some losers eventually and you need to stick through it to get the big winners. This is a type of system where you can experience some drawdown but you got to remember the bigger picture. Looking foward to Sunday.
  • #1,833
  • Aug 15, 2009 11:09pm Aug 15, 2009 11:09pm
Perhaps, during periods of consolidation (flat market), it would be best to enter buy limit & sell limit orders, instead of buy stop & sell stop orders. Perhaps a 3rd reversal entry in tandem with the limit orders during such times would have made these lower performing years more profitable...

Walt

Quoting danno96
Hi Piptalk

I manually backtest by looking at chart with ACE's indicators, sorry you're right this is an error on my part. I try to get through the hugh amount of data quickly so there will be few errors in my backtesting.

Hi GreatYves

For my variation rule 10 - Half SL when price move >75% of 1X TP

I still notice there were large number of SL so what I try to test here is to see if price move > than 75% of 1X TP then reverse and hit SL. Can the damage be reduce by moving SL to half.

I've been looking at a number of trading systems on the...
  • #1,834
  • Edited 2:56pm Aug 16, 2009 2:45pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting Ace284
O Yeah, this is for everyone. I tested back until the start of the year. And placing stop to BE gave these results.

Winners - 40.43%
Losers - 23.40%
Breakeven - 36.17%

So before, the ratio was 40% winner and 60% loser. Looks MUCH better now. Got that 60% to turn into 23%
thanks for the effort Ace.

so from these figures I understand that the % of winners was the same with BE and without BE.

so it never happened that price came back into the box triggering the BE and broke out in the previous direction again, ending the week with a profit for your original system without BE?
  • #1,835
  • Aug 16, 2009 2:52pm Aug 16, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting yonnie
thanks for the effort Ace.

so from these figures I understand that the % of winners was the same with BE and without BE.

so it never happened that price came back into the box triggering the BE and broke out in the previous direction again, ending the week with a profit?
Hello
I'm new here.
EA trading is the best
  • #1,836
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:22pm Aug 16, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting gustav213
Hey great system been modding it a lot to make it work more for me and different things I think I like more.

I don't like a lot of indicators and only use one that sets the box and lines with weekly pivot levels and 3 take profit levels.
Hi Gustav213
Is the indicator you use on this thread, if so could you let me know which one you use?
Many thanks
  • #1,837
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:33pm Aug 16, 2009 4:33pm
This week I am trading only G/J and E/J.

Risk will be 4% on G/J and 3% on E/J.

All the best to everyone. May the pips be with us.

Cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,838
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:28pm Aug 16, 2009 7:28pm
Hi Guys,
I watched the open with much antisipation when the first bar formed I noted the range but the prices on the template continue to change in line with the second barvthat is nstill forming????
Should we be using the numbers on the chart IE wait for the second bar to form or use the values of the first bar.
  • #1,839
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:42pm Aug 16, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting Stumpy1
Hi Guys,
I watched the open with much antisipation when the first bar formed I noted the range but the prices on the template continue to change in line with the second barvthat is nstill forming????
Should we be using the numbers on the chart IE wait for the second bar to form or use the values of the first bar.
If I am not mistaken, the 1Box4A and 1BOX4B indi is based on the 2nd bar, which is the candle from 0000 to 0400 GMT, hence it will stop moving at 0400GMT.
  • #1,840
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:48pm Aug 16, 2009 7:48pm
Quoting Stumpy1
Hi Guys,
I watched the open with much antisipation when the first bar formed I noted the range but the prices on the template continue to change in line with the second barvthat is nstill forming????
Should we be using the numbers on the chart IE wait for the second bar to form or use the values of the first bar.
Well since this is a 4-hour breakout system, and it hasn't been 4 hours since the markets opened, the bar is obviously going to keep changing.
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