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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #9,641
  • Aug 15, 2009 8:36pm Aug 15, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting lilpip
This weeks terrain review.

The e/u did not want to continue her climb from the previous week and when she moved back to last weeks area I was up from (1.4154), her move up from that area was not so convincing, she sure feels like theres more motivation to move down than up.
My bias for the week is up from 1.4182, the area shes in, otherwise Im going the other way.
1.4438
1.4182
1.3998
1.3734
So much for the weeks review, I need to look at the daily and prepare for sun.
Lilpip,

Hourly it would appear that there's good overhead resistance, but when we pull back we can see we are in the upper regions of this summers range with the bases building for the $bears

Are they pulling out? Don't know yet, but for the moment imho, we are still bouncing in no mans land with long term eyes still looking north for the moment as long as this last support holds.

If she breaks through south, there's a lot below to contend with.... more range possibly.

Just my .02

regards,
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  • #9,642
  • Edited Aug 16, 2009 7:35am Aug 15, 2009 9:13pm | Edited Aug 16, 2009 7:35am
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

Hourly it would appear that there's good overhead resistance, but when we pull back we can see we are in the upper regions of this summers range with the bases building for the $bears

Are they pulling out? Don't know yet, but for the moment imho, we are still bouncing in no mans land with long term eyes still looking north for the moment as long as this last support holds.

If she breaks through south, there's a lot below to contend with.... more range possibly.

Just my .02

regards,
I had 1.4500 as possible resistance for the month of aug. and areas of interest below.
The weekly trend has been up but a couple days of downtrend.
Im watching 4182 to see if it continues, we'll see what the week brings us.
Thankfully were taught what to look and feel for as we move up and down rather than being locked in these areas that we see and evaluate.

I do like your snap shot of the chart, she sure hasnt been very motivated to climb since 4307-4279 area. shes just been a fallen.
  • #9,643
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:46am Aug 16, 2009 7:46am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Coloni...&asset=&ccode=
  • #9,644
  • Aug 16, 2009 7:47am Aug 16, 2009 7:47am
http://tradingwithtoastmaster.blogsp...r-economy.html
  • #9,645
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:15am Aug 16, 2009 10:15am
Hi auxesis,
So much info to content with, thanks.

I much rather stay with flow, and let the market, she absorbs the conditions and create the dance.

Will be careful with over exposure though. Safer on the easy skews.

Good Fortune to all

regards
  • #9,646
  • Edited 10:49am Aug 16, 2009 10:25am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting lilpip
This weeks terrain review.

The e/u did not want to continue her climb from the previous week and when she moved back to last weeks area I was up from (1.4154), her move up from that area was not so convincing, she sure feels like theres more motivation to move down than up.
My bias for the week is up from 1.4182, the area shes in, otherwise Im going the other way.
1.4438
1.4182
1.3998
1.3734
So much for the weeks review and trend, I need to look at the daily and prepare for sun.
Hi lilpip,
Don't let the analysis get in the way.
The variance possibilities may baffle you.
Even I cannot see 5 mins ahead of me in this climate.

Keep the faith, dance the song.
She choses the music and not you.
You chose only your strategies to meet the music.

much carts of pips for you, I hope.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #9,647
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:10am Aug 16, 2009 11:10am
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Missed your post, indeed some interesting stuff floating around.....

Hows to move into the other markets?

Regards,
Hi auxesis,

Yeap, much BS all over , can't see much as behind the veils.
But one thing is for sure, the music quickens. Most important, is the carts of pips are coming in for me.

Some people takes their own sweet time to render markets excess. If they want me to wait, so they can wait .
For now back to spot retail interbanks, also testing out one online broker who promised unprecedented market access for me. We shall see.

Dance well , my friend, its gonna be the longest day again this Monday.

regards
  • #9,648
  • Edited 12:34pm Aug 16, 2009 11:31am | Edited 12:34pm
Hi mahes,

you have mindset fixed?
Go to low skews. Fight tooth and nails.
Keep your head down and follow the flow.
There's nothing out there thats gonna show you the play.
Its a big fog of deceptions.

No friends no foe, just flow.

Good Fortune.

regards
  • #9,649
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:34pm Aug 16, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting imjscn
That's right.
Who's friend who's foe? Just be kind --- learned from fti

Inserted Video
  • #9,650
  • Aug 16, 2009 1:09pm Aug 16, 2009 1:09pm
Dear fti and members
I am regularly working through the info kindly shared on the thread..and I realise that many are quite experienced trading this method/non method now..
So I hope this question is not too basic and you are not fed up with the same old questions?
Q.
Once a scout has been established into the perceived trend - and if then the market immediately turns the opposite direction - do you have a set amount of movement/pips that you will allow the market to move before entering the rescue - and then a point of no return?
I understand from the thread that these considerations will also be based on size of stake/lot and capitilization and skills?? - but I would appreciate some feedback and advice as I look to develop my own flexible framework to work from as per the teachings
Many thanks & good trading
  • #9,651
  • Edited 1:47pm Aug 16, 2009 1:33pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting gdb
Dear fti and members
I am regularly working through the info kindly shared on the thread..and I realise that many are quite experienced trading this method/non method now..
So I hope this question is not too basic and you are not fed up with the same old questions?
Q.
Once a scout has been established into the perceived trend - and if then the market immediately turns the opposite direction - do you have a set amount of movement/pips that you will allow the market to move before entering the rescue - and then a point of no return?
I understand...
Hi gdb,
I noticed you are very new here.
Actually I am done on the presentation,but since you are having problems ,For you, once again.
Understand AOW very clearly, try to think about whats been said, and think deep.
Basically the function of the scout is to determine flow.if you were in the scenario that you put forth, then it would be clear that if the movement violated the basic trend deteminant, then you would be against flow, if such was the case , all it takes is for impulse to resume and it would be fool hardy to even attempt rescue.
If such flow was retrace, therefore miss timing, then a skewed rescue may just save the book.
Your strategies and response should be dynamic and in response to flow more than any rigid perspective. Strategies are of none value, unless they address the dance at hand. There are no rules to determine what you response should be but to follow the dance impulse.
I suggest you demo your trading while you read and think , as there is no better teacher than the markets.

I hope this help you, but I really encourage you to read think and practise. Thats the only way to develop the skills.

Once you get into the groove , you will understand. Otherwise it would be possible to learn how to drive by reading driving instruction, which is unlikely possible. Read the thread carefully, mostly the MO is not clear until you can embrace it. Otherwise PM me , I will try to guide you a little about chinese thinking.


regards
  • #9,652
  • Aug 16, 2009 2:06pm Aug 16, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting fti
Hi mahes,

you have mindset fixed?
Go to low skews. Fight tooth and nails.
Keep your head down and follow the flow.
There's nothing out there thats gonna show you the play.
Its a big fog of deceptions.

No friends no foe, just flow.

Good Fortune.

regards
yes sir,
mindset is fixed ,
still wondering if i need to step up , ill survive with this low return as well , looks like im gonna keep this rate for some more time , it makes more sense to me to be on the defensive side for now...
good luck for tome
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #9,653
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:10pm Aug 16, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting maheswara
yes sir,
mindset is fixed ,
still wondering if i need to step up , ill survive with this low return as well , looks like im gonna keep this rate for some more time , it makes more sense to me to be on the defensive side for now...
good luck for tome
Hi mahes,
You had tasted the flow and the MO.
Seems your adjustment to new MM is not palateble to yo risk tolerence. Try stay in comfort zone , don't press it until your mindset can adjust to the upsizing. You will know your own levels, from your book performance. Disorientation and discomfort in upsizing is the most difficult to adjust to, esp, when adjusting while volitilty is shifting as well. The trick is to stay to +ve book.
As your foreign cap accumulates, the transition may be smoothen. Force it and all your scorpions will surface in a jiffy.

Happy piping.

regards
  • #9,654
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:11pm Aug 16, 2009 3:11pm
Opens
14187/90
16515/20
9470/73
  • #9,655
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:24pm Aug 16, 2009 3:24pm
14188/90
16515/20
9468/73
  • #9,656
  • Aug 16, 2009 3:50pm Aug 16, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,
So much info to content with, thanks.

I much rather stay with flow, and let the market, she absorbs the conditions and create the dance.
Will be careful with over exposure though. Safer on the easy skews.

Good Fortune to all

regards
Fti,

Thanks for the thoughts, indeed, it matters not what I read, nor which way I think the market should go... as a trader which ever way the market flows that's the direction I need to follow.

Will keep my mindset in it's proper perspective.

Longest Day! Hopefully taking the beach head won't be so painful

Wishing you and all of us, many carts full of pips!!!!

Regards,
  • #9,657
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:09pm Aug 16, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Thanks for the thoughts, indeed, it matters not what I read, nor which way I think the market should go... as a trader which ever way the market flows that's the direction I need to follow.

Will keep my mindset in it's proper perspective.

Longest Day! Hopefully taking the beach head won't be so painful

Wishing you and all of us, many carts full of pips!!!!

Regards,
happy beach combing
Watch out for mortars.
and bunkers.

regards
  • #9,658
  • Edited 4:48pm Aug 16, 2009 4:35pm | Edited 4:48pm
Hi ALL,
I just heard that oanda is quoting elephant spreads (10pips ). I think you chaps trading with them should find brokers who are at their most professional standards, seems like they are not on the ball at all. All the highest professionalism talk, All BS, if you ask me. If these can't get decent dealing prices, maybe they should call me at counter 13.


regards
  • #9,659
  • Aug 16, 2009 4:55pm Aug 16, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
I just heard that oanda is quoting elephant spreads (10pips ). I think you chaps trading with them should find brokers who are at their most professional standards, seems like they are not on the ball at all. All the highest professional talk, All BS, if you ask me. If these can't get decent dealing prices, maybe they should call me at counter 13.


regards
hello FTi and everyone,

most of us are with oanda because we can trade any size with them. i cannot trade even microlots ($1000) for scout. 100$ scout for me.

isn't it a matter of paying for the risk oanda takes in this low liquid hours??

in the NYfed. article about foreign exange it said dealers change their quotes when they are uncertain.... maybe oanda is uncertain??
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #9,660
  • Aug 16, 2009 5:25pm Aug 16, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
I just heard that oanda is quoting elephant spreads (10pips ). I think you chaps trading with them should find brokers who are at their most professional standards, seems like they are not on the ball at all. All the highest professionalism talk, All BS, if you ask me. If these can't get decent dealing prices, maybe they should call me at counter 13.


regards
Tis' the biggest knock against them. Weeks opening usually runs 10 to 15 for the majors for the first 4 hours or so, crosses as high as 20, If there's some volume they'll cut them in half.

Atm : Euro & Yen 5, Pound 8, GBP/JPY 15

During news announcements the spread will widen to weekend ranges for a minute or two ... plays hell on the straddle boys,lol

Other knock is their java platform, charts lag......... you have to read the quotes, but that's being fixed, interest is accumulated continuously on open positions and also paid on account which doesn't mean much nowdays. No protection or segregation of accoounts like most US forex brokers.

Quick fills, very little in the way of requotes and the ability to trade any size.

They are not as bad as most, if you can get around the sprerad issue.

fwiw,

regards
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