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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #189,121
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:09pm Aug 15, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting donfriday
i have been playing with fibo Fan for months now since gj was at 151....each time it get broken price come back to test the Low fan , so this give me good reason that 153 is a good price to see again before we see any buyers coming in the market....IMO 153 should stand like a rock stone and shoot back up....gj will play in this channel till it go back up...my plan my view and my experience..trade your chart.
i saw ur many posts and honestly trend following is realy simple job so no need a comment, try to predict reversal this is a real thing...
  • #189,122
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:36pm Aug 15, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting rgitt05
IMHO, the ascending TL maybe the blueline I drawn over your chart.


Thanks for drawing that line.. but I think the real line is at 150.50 approx (DARK BLUE) IN THIS CHART.. that is if 153.00 gets taken out.

so I think from 156xx we are going into 162xx zone.. then down.. again.. Fourth time price goes to 162.. its goona break above.

THE ONE YOU DREW IS THE light BLUE one.. cause Break of that will seem like we had a trendline break out.. hence a Bear trap.. IMO.

Here is the modified version of the ascending triangle. so we are looking at 150 zone... for a run UP tp test last High.1200 pips...if that.?

5syfx... We are slowly Brain Washing you to Be a BULL.. lol..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ascending triangle.jpg Size: 165 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #189,123
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:42pm Aug 15, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting Raza
5syfx... We are slowly Brain Washing you to Be a BULL.. lol..
u can try of course but efects will be miserable
i got my SL thats all i need
btw this is not a bullish pattern but in these days is really hard to predict next move
  • #189,124
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:49pm Aug 15, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting 5ysfx
u can try of course but efects will be miserable
i got my SL thats all i need
btw this is not a bullish pattern but in these days is really hard to predict next move

YA its not a bullish pattern...it can be called range..

But the outcome of this is Bullish..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #189,125
  • Aug 15, 2009 6:59pm Aug 15, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting Raza
YA its not a bullish pattern...it can be called range..

But the outcome of this is Bullish..
this is what i called bullish pattern http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post2238952
all what is matter a psychology
  • #189,126
  • Aug 15, 2009 9:15pm Aug 15, 2009 9:15pm
It depends on the JPY GDP fundamentals sunday morning that will determine PA ..It the JPY GDP is good than GJ is heading downward.. UJ TA looks bearish and GU looks bearish..

hmmm maybe GJ is bearish.

Wait and see...




Quoting Raza
Thanks for drawing that line.. but I think the real line is at 150.50 approx (DARK BLUE) IN THIS CHART.. that is if 153.00 gets taken out.

so I think from 156xx...
[
  • #189,127
  • Aug 15, 2009 9:39pm Aug 15, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting rgitt05
It depends on the JPY GDP fundamentals sunday morning that will determine PA ..It the JPY GDP is good than GJ is heading downward.. UJ TA looks bearish and GU looks bearish..

hmmm maybe GJ is bearish.

Wait and see...

Man this is a Tricky one...

I was about to say the same..Bearish...

I did some research ... let you know a little later.( CHART)

Bearish.... cause... DOUBLE TOP... big M.....Could become a Tripple TOP..

Break of 146xx will confirm BIG M. formation.

This ascending Triangle might not give us the same results.. which we had from prior 2 Ascending Triangles.

IF This one have 5 swings..(ASCENDING TRIANGLE)... its breaking to the Down SIDE..BIG TIME..

NEED SOME CONFIRMATION... Also GBP/ LFX.+ CANDLE STICK PATTERN.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #189,128
  • Edited Aug 16, 2009 5:44am Aug 15, 2009 10:00pm | Edited Aug 16, 2009 5:44am
All bets on the ending of the year for GJ PA

I projected 178.00<X < 180.00 resistance zone (38.2% fib level) to be the finally STOP before the BIG REVERSAL RALLY to 100.00 LEVEL into next year...

TREND IS YOUR FRIEND..

Save this post..

IMHO, DJ will rally this market to 11,000 - 12,000 end of the year...LOL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ future 09.png Size: 94 KB
[
  • #189,129
  • Edited 11:26pm Aug 15, 2009 10:32pm | Edited 11:26pm
How many more ascending triangles are we Gonna have. ???

if THIS ...M... OR dOUBLE TOP PLAYS OUT G/j will be at 135xx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: another triangle.jpg Size: 113 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #189,130
  • Aug 15, 2009 11:35pm Aug 15, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting Raza
How many more ascending triangles are we Gonna have. ???

if THIS ...M... OR dOUBLE TOP PLAYS OUT G/j will be at 135xx


to save ur chart...right click and export....save as file or send as email.....when u done go into ur picture on ur drive c u will find all ur chart there..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #189,131
  • Aug 15, 2009 11:51pm Aug 15, 2009 11:51pm
Quoting donfriday
to save ur chart...right click and export....save as file or send as email.....when u done go into ur picture on ur drive c u will find all ur chart there..

I save them on Desk Top..

Do you know how to make parallel trendline... without physically making one.. is there any option??
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #189,132
  • Aug 15, 2009 11:58pm Aug 15, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting Raza
I save them on Desk Top..

Do you know how to make parallel trendline... without physically making one.. is there any option??

get on msn...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #189,133
  • Aug 16, 2009 9:53am Aug 16, 2009 9:53am
Quoting rgitt05
All bets on the ending of the year for GJ PA

I projected 178.00<X < 180.00 resistance zone (38.2% fib level) to be the finally STOP before the BIG REVERSAL RALLY to 100.00 LEVEL into next year...

TREND IS YOUR FRIEND..

Save this post..

IMHO, DJ will rally this market to 11,000 - 12,000 end of the year...LOL

yah.. the daw will corrct to 8600 -8700- 8800 than will move up to 11,000
and gbpjpy will corrct to 15380/15275 than move up to 16472/16575 17800+
  • #189,134
  • Aug 16, 2009 10:08am Aug 16, 2009 10:08am
firstly the 1hr chart shows clear minor support giving us a bottom / floor for the current time

flipping to the 4hr we have a clear top double where bears are sitting pa breaks here and 167

lastly going to the daily we have an obvious trend up with many targeting the 50percent fib area from the fall 217 giving us 167

so we have a few s/r lines minor and major 156 is taken we are looking at the daily ltl with a possible bouce and target fibo if the ltl is taken we might create a bearish channel but not forgetting our fib target this wouldnt make much sense

so really in my mind i have only one trade on my mind that keeps coming back to me depending on pa is long around the ltl with resistance levels 156 - 162 then our target 167

who knows
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1hr.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4hr.gif Size: 19 KB
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  • #189,135
  • Aug 16, 2009 11:18am Aug 16, 2009 11:18am
personally im hoping for one more test of 156 so i can grab a long if it bounces again. im going to set an alarm to wake me up tonight around 156.20 so i dont miss it if it should happen.
  • #189,136
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:34pm Aug 16, 2009 12:34pm
Last week we had the move down to 156. from 163.0. A 61.8% retrace to 160.3 followed by a retest of 156. finishing with a bounce up to 23.6% at 157.0.

Major resistance for this week's range is 158.4, Major Support 153.8

I see 3 potential scenarios based on last weeks PA.

1. Blue line scenario - we test 160 again before moving down to the 156 area, bounce back up to 158.7 before a move down to 153.8, with a potential bounce back to 157 area. This is my mildly bearish (high volatility) outlook and most likely to play out in the event we have no major news to initiate a larger bear rally. I know 160 seems a bit high, but we've been ranging 500 + pips a week, so I took that into consideration for an aggresive outlook.

2. Black line scenario - We test the top of the current range 158.3/158.7 (61.8 fib retracement of the latest move down to 156) before retesting the bottom at 156 again.
If we break 156.0 my first TP target is 155, second TP target at 153.8. with a bounce back up to 156.5 before testing 153.0. If we break 153.0 it's going to drop like a stone. But we have major trendline support at 153.0 so breaking it won't be easy. there are many buyers lined up here and a break of 153.0 would suggest the correction of the 215.87 to 118.81 is complete.

3. Green line scenario - A breakout of resistance at 158.4 to the 61.8 retracement of last week's weekly candle at 160.2 and retest 158.4 as support, and then back up to the 163 area finishing the week with a 100% retracement of last week's weekly candle or higher.
This is a my bullish scenario which sets up the GY for a potential bull rally towards the 167-172 area, or drop back into the mid 150s the following week if resistance holds at 163. Since the markets may attempt another push up based on the recession "being over" it's in the realm of possibilites.

The black line and green line are most exciting, but the rationalist in me says it won't get that exciting yet. This week is not as clear because we ended last week in the middle of a retrace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 17.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #189,137
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:40pm Aug 16, 2009 12:40pm
am positioned nicely for the upmove, but the temp. move
up is more of a scalp play, the volume up is not encouraging----
looking to close out--would be nice for it to go down one more time
on low volume before any chance of 167...folks on the weekly
charts want armageddon..lol

so bulls better pray for the next down move to be on low volume--

lookin for the Prelim GDP q/q JPY to favor the bears-i see a nice upthrust
before the close on friday--hmm-maybe they know something--
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyplay.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #189,138
  • Aug 16, 2009 12:53pm Aug 16, 2009 12:53pm
GBPJPY will rise after small correction!
  • #189,139
  • Aug 16, 2009 1:02pm Aug 16, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting taomql4
am positioned nicely for the upmove, but the temp. move
up is more of a scalp play, the volume up is not encouraging----
volume up is not encouraging? you expect volume not to be low on a friday afternoon before close??!? its going to be low volume wherever it goes on a friday afternoon, much like its lower volume whatever happens after london closes on a normal day.

according to FF forecast for that GDP is +1.1. i would be AMAZED if it got near that, that would put it at its highest since feb 2007, and its a huge difference from the -3.8 last time out, how they came up with +1.1 i dont know, they do usually get it pretty close looking at past results though. I am assuming a bad number strengthens the yen due to risk aversion so might see gj going down after that comes out, then again anything above 0 might see it going up instead purely based on being much better than last time. could go either way i guess.
  • #189,140
  • Aug 16, 2009 1:10pm Aug 16, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting Raza
ON weekly.. THIS candle stick is confirmed to be an opening MARUBOZO( in an UP trend.. key word is UPTREND).... or Bearish Belt Hold..

Go figure..

RELIABILITY rank is #5 .. out of 103 candle stick patterns..
CHART
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MARUBOZO.jpg Size: 198 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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