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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #188,801
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:03pm Aug 12, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting forexlion
btw that flag broke to the downside
yes, as long as its not a fake-out. dont trust it these days.
  • #188,802
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:04pm Aug 12, 2009 7:04pm
is it just me?

FOMC - We will end QE in October. Bias is towards stabilisation and eventual rise in rates.

2yr Treasuries - we don't believe you FOMC: yield falls 5.6 bps.
  • #188,803
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:23pm Aug 12, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting Eulogy
is it just me?

FOMC - We will end QE in October. Bias is towards stabilisation and eventual rise in rates.

2yr Treasuries - we don't believe you FOMC: yield falls 5.6 bps.
What I see the current price 2YR Bond actually rises a bit.
  • #188,804
  • Aug 12, 2009 7:30pm Aug 12, 2009 7:30pm
Quoting mktjong
What I see the current price 2YR Bond actually rises a bit.
EXACTLY

price rise

yield falls
  • #188,805
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:09pm Aug 12, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting Eulogy
EXACTLY

price rise

yield falls


hey Eulogy, what does that mean for the gbpjpy?
  • #188,806
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:16pm Aug 12, 2009 8:16pm
scenario for today

any break above 158.229 and we head north

stay below we head south
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  • #188,807
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:27pm Aug 12, 2009 8:27pm
This is perhaps the best strategy I ever found on FF

Who is willing to give it a try

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=405
  • #188,808
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:34pm Aug 12, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting Mr. G.
sold 158.45 - MACD is turning down on 5M and 1H momentum is fading.... stop @ 159.56 just above two previous high pivots on 1H - target 157.71 congestion area on 1H chart
stop moved to BE+4
MACD is churning lower
target 157.71 is still viable
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  • #188,809
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:35pm Aug 12, 2009 8:35pm
Quoting forexlion
This is perhaps the best strategy I ever found on FF

Who is willing to give it a try

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=405
99.9% guaranteed to turn you into a depressed and paranoid insomniac

0.01% guaranteed to make you fall asleep at your desk.
  • #188,810
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:48pm Aug 12, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting t2l&l2t
hey Eulogy, what does that mean for the gbpjpy?
I'm not sure atm. equities and the carry trade have been so mixed up these last few months its not easy to gauge the direction of the next mid-term swing.

What i can say is that its disturbing that there was such a strong demand for treasuries after the FOMC announcement. If the fed is no longer expanding QE, then who else is buying TSYs?

Small traders? no way their demand is strong enough.

Big instos? Aren't they saying that the economy is recovering? If so, why are they buying into the safety of bonds that offer minimal yields?

Malcolmb has also noted that there was significant distribution on the GJ before and after NFP. whether or not this will pan out is still up for grabs. Interesting too that no-one seems to be noticing that estimates on the P/E ratio on the broader US economy is hovering around 130-150. Long term P/E equilibrium will only be restored if earnings grow 5-7 times what they are now within the next 6 months, or market prices fall to 1/5-1/7 times what they are now, or some combination of the two.
  • #188,811
  • Aug 12, 2009 8:51pm Aug 12, 2009 8:51pm
gj bear flag 150.50 tested twice .. both times sellers hit it

152 next target

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart239.png Size: 215 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,812
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:25pm Aug 12, 2009 9:25pm
falling.wedge ( BAD DRAWING).( 151- 150.69)

ALSO REVERSE MOTIVE WAVE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: falling broadening wedge..jpg Size: 188 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #188,813
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:39pm Aug 12, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting Raza
falling.wedge ( BAD DRAWING).( 151- 150.69)

ALSO REVERSE MOTIVE WAVE.
u expecting a 1100+ pip spike?
  • #188,814
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:41pm Aug 12, 2009 9:41pm
Hi...guys...at last got the guts to post something in this terrific thread created by auslanco....have been following the thread for quite some month. Hope could learn something from you guys and shared some ideas in the next post...
  • #188,815
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:47pm Aug 12, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting Eulogy
u expecting a 1100+ pip spike?
Are you expecting further-1100 pips spike down? from 151xx area

It wont be the spike..it might be a rally on some BS news..

First thing Falling Broadening Wedges break to the Upside..

Secondly its a CUP and Handle formation .. can be identified on Hourly!!

Also looks like an inverted H&S on 1 hr to Daily TF. where this right shoulder would be a handle or ..it will be bigger than the left shoulder.

That should help take this to its final destination 167-169 if not any higher...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #188,816
  • Aug 12, 2009 9:55pm Aug 12, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting Raza
Are you expecting -1100 pips spike down?

It wont be the spike..it might be a rally on some BS news..

First thing Falling Broadening Wedges break to the Upside..

Secondly its a CUP and Handle formation .. can be identified on Hourly!!

Also looks like an inverted H&S on 1 hr to Daily TF. where this right shoulder would be a handle or ..it will be bigger than the left shoulder.

That should help take this to its final destination 167-169 if not any higher...
nah, wasn't expecting a 1100+ pip spike down, nor did i say so. Besides you can hardly say that downward channel you've drawn in is a spike although the uptick certainly looks like one. Perhaps a chart-not-drawn-to-scale misperception.
  • #188,817
  • Edited Aug 13, 2009 8:57pm Aug 12, 2009 10:01pm | Edited Aug 13, 2009 8:57pm
Quoting Eulogy
nah, wasn't expecting a 1100+ pip spike down, nor did i say so. Besides you can hardly say that downward channel you've drawn in is a spike although the uptick certainly looks like one. Perhaps a chart-not-drawn-to-scale misperception.
trend line and drawing showing Direction only.. NO SPIKE..

Not so good with mapping the road.. But the direction is Clear. also FIB levels.

BTW... What are you expecting?? Any Charts..



I am expecting this thing to retrace to 160.20 area... then short the Crap out of it..if it ever gets there..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #188,818
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:48pm Aug 12, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting forexlion
with tema 4 hour still sloping down, its still not a valid buying condition despite the fomc

and i am hoping that the Girlfriend will provide a good support here
woo hoo my girlfriend shielded me

we are all in for a mighty uptrend
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  • #188,819
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:52pm Aug 12, 2009 10:52pm
gbp/jpy heading to 160.30
  • #188,820
  • Aug 12, 2009 10:55pm Aug 12, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting forexlion
woo hoo my girlfriend CHEATED ON me

we are all in for a mighty uptrend
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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