Technical Analysis Fallacy

Dear fti,
Sorry to hear this. Although it's nothing new among "Forex Traders", but still feel sad that it happens in this thread.
But, never mind. People have different understanding about life.

Sad to hear that this is happening. I would had thought that people would make enough money trading without having to sell your ideas. I agree with what you said in an earlier post #9455 "It doesn't brother me because I know as true as the sun rises in the morning, these people will have their own scorpions to take them down."
This is also reinforced to me by Auxesis experiences "that individual blew up several accounts behind the scenes unknowingly to the students and paid subscibers."
On the current trading side I am also having a good week so far. Looks like the price on the EUR/USD may get to 1.4200 before the FOMC. Anyway I am squared and will not be trading the FOMC Rate news, as it comes out at 2.15 am in the Philippines. Good luck to those that are waiting up for it. Ray

Hi fti, sorry to hear your news. I hope this does not weigh on you as your contribution far exceeds anything that these slugs who live off your hard work can do. Hope you can put this aside and get back to the trading task at hand. You have created a very special community here, and having a few snakes spoil it only lets the snakes win. I love stopping by to see what you and the thread participants are doing and to share trading stories and ideas. I think you all rock, so screw these other people (sorry for the harsh language). For everyone who is reading this thread, buyer beware when it come to these snakes.

Hi fti,

I have been silent for some time now. Was busy trading, hehe. I was surprised that you had pretty strong mind on bullish usd for several weeks now. Doesn't suit you to pick a side.

As for some people who try to make money from selling other people's ideas.. well, its nothing new here. I have seen many threads wraped up in a pdf and sold on ebay. Same for freely shared EAs.. even when it is clear that they don't work. Some people still sell it without the authors knowledge.

That is why I would not buy anything forex or stock trading related. Some books.. maybe but even then you have to take it with a grain of salt as we all know. I see it as entertainment anyway.

Only way to protect oneself is to live in a bunker surrounded by china walls.

I still believe that the majority here are good hardworking people.

I appreciate all that you have given and shared. Some things that I cannot find here I look up in the Art of War book. Some things I cannot find in the Art of War book I look up here. Cheers.

Best regards,

I think some people must completely miss the point. I remember when I happened to mention quite a while ago, that I had made a word document up of the main points of the thread and rewritten it a bit so I could read through it more easily, someone immediately PM'd me and asked me to send them a copy. I was a bit taken aback that they expected me to just give it away, firstly because it took me a lot of time to do and secondly because it was not mine to give away, just my notes of what fti presented here.

The silly thing is I don't think it would be of much use to anyone else anyway because I concentrated on the things I needed to learn and maybe left out important mindset discussions that others might need, because I was already happy I had understood them.

Anyway, I always wonder how these rumours get about. I must be out of the loop here as no-one ever tells me anything.

I wish people would be more honest and honourable. I would have dearly liked to have had more advice from fti, as to whether he thinks I am anywhere near understanding this method but I sense a certain reticence in that direction, maybe due to others behaviour....or maybe I'm just not very good at communicating via the internet. Good luck to all the good people who are making their own way with all the great stuff on this thread anyway, and as always, I am still so very glad that I found this corner of cyberspace.

A timely reminder for me - I haven't put anywhere near enough time into studying this book yet.

Remember the moth story?

wow Lusan ,
seems like u ve reached another level of understanding...

Yes, thanks. Point taken

note to self: one hour trend is your friend.

P.S. honesty and itegrity are hard to come by these days

If you understand the way vBulletin works then these rumours normally have good grounding. I don't think many people would be in this "loop".

Hi everyone. Still trying to get over the fti post, but have had a very good trading day today. I am taking a break from my journal (which I started after receiving a PM suggesting my dronings would be better separted from this thread - lol) and just making a brief comment here. This was a great counter-trend, or trend reversal trading day. Hope you all got some of it after NY open. Now on hold until FOMC announcement in a few hours. I hope fti is back here soon to join in the action after the announcement. Good trading to you all.

Hi All,
Please don't take things the wrong way. I will not abandon good honourable people because of some bad apples.

Was just expressing my sadness, to the thought of some of you had lost good money to the lurking snakes, because of their own gullibility. However for them , it is a lesson to remember. But it nothing unrecoverable if they put the effort to learn that which had been given. I was sad to feel the pain that God and Jesus probably felt when trying to save the sheeps of his creation. And that the decision to alienate us from heaven was not wrong although painful.

We are so much satan and so little God. That its so sad that we were from God.

on the trading front i had been having a good field day , since Tokyo opening, and the victories mute the tiredness.

I shall be watching the fomc soon to get an insight of things to come and grab a few carts of pips as well.

The MO for the fomc is similar for all important figs field MO. Aim well and move quickly, and most important know you position in the MM.

Good hunting , to all good hearts. And thank you for your empathy , my friends.

Jesus my pillar, and rock of refuge.

regards

I haven't posted much of late but I have a Positve. I have been using the AOW system for about a year or so now and with a lot of hard work, study and patiance(lots of patiance) I'm happy to say My book has remained in the +.

Like the old saying goes "ass, cash or grass nobody rides for free"

Thanks FTI you've helped me

Hi there.

Just to overcome the time up to the FOMC announcement.
That's the context in which the FED is doing their decision ....

USD M/T Aug 11-12 FOMC Preview - No change, new or extended alternative policies (Fed,CB)
Rudy Narvas
* Economic and financial conditions improved, but no need for Fed to change or hint of raising rates from zero bound
* Risk that Fed will not extend Treasury buy program and may signal those intentions, but keep door open just in case
* Near and medium term upside inflation risks overdone given slack in the economy and oil prices where they were when FOMC last met, but some measures of inflation expectations could raise cautious alarms
* Expect no rate hikes until early 2011, but risk of late 2010 hikes if unwinding of balance sheet position is not so smooth

Economic data continues to come in better than expected and financial conditions have improved notably. While policy makers will be pleased by these developments the risk is still tilted that the Fed will remain cautious on the economic prospects. At the same time, the data and other developments do not give the FOMC any reason to expand any of its current qua ntitative/credit easing policies leaving with it a bias to keep current plans unchanged, but keep options open to expand if economic conditions deteriorate unexpectedly. With the amount of slack in the economy the Fed should continue to suggest that rates will stay low at the 0%-0.25% target for an extended period.

Heading into the upcoming FOMC meeting the market continues to price in a chance of rate hikes for later this year and fully by early 2010 as recent data which has come up on the positive side. While policy makers may see H2 as showing decent growth they may prudently question whether such momentum can be sustained, as most of the push should be from the inventory cycle as well as a restart of auto manufacturing. We also have to take into consideration that the consumption side outside of autos remains weak and this sector makes up 70% of GDP. That said the Fed could start sounding cautiously optimistic that the worst really is behind the economy and that we could start seeing positive growth in H2 although underlying trend over the coming quarters could be at a U-shaped walking pace rather than a v-shaped sprint recovery. There is a risk though that in the eyes of some policy makers the economy still vulnerable to an adverse shock.

There is also the question of upside inflation risks which due to the expansion of the size of the Fed's balance sheet and second the recent rise in commodity prices. With respect to the former we think this is not as big an issue as some have made it out to be, particularly if the Fed decides not to extend the size and life of its buy programs without any unexpected deterioration in the economic data. While the Fed has expanded the money supply it has come at a time where money velocity had been falling given the tightness in credit conditions, in other words more money is needed to be pumped in to get a more of a response from growth without stirring the inflation pot. There could be signs that the velocity of money has near bottomed out and that further expansion of the money supply may not be needed other than what is currently in place. Recent data shows that M2 growth has been fairly stagnant, and so has the growth of the Fed's balance sheet. Credit conditions have also improved with TED and OIS spreads moving to near normal levels, suggesting that credit channels are in better shape to transmit monetary accommodation. Improvement in credit is also a sign that the adverse feed back loop between credit and the real economy may be over, and this development should be recognized by policy makers in the statement. Velocity from our models could begin turning up by H1 2010, but not at a pace which could pose serious upside inflation risks. As well, the Fed's alternative programs such as the buys, Term Auction Credit, and Term Securities Lending Facility are timed to begin winding down at the time that velocity should pick up.

On the commodity front, while a rise in those prices should always perk the ears of policy makers. The recent rise should not be sounding alarm bells at least at this meeting. The price of crude is pretty much where it was when the Fed made its last set of forecasts, in other words its baseline scenario is likely unchanged with respect to this factor. That said the Fed will keep a close tab on commodity prices on an ongoing basis, likely giving it more attention if it moves in line with increasing economic fundamentals.

With the amount of slack in the economy pressure is still pointing to the core falling rather than rising but core PCE inflation reading may not breach the 1% mark. Slack should persist for some time and given the recent historical revisions to GDP the hole that the economy finds itself is deeper than previously thought. In other words it will take more than an inventory and auto induced H2 pop in growth to get it back to potential. Slack from the labour market remains wide and if unemployment is expected to peak later this year or early next, it still sets the stage for rate hikes no earlier than early 2011 given historical Fed behavior with respect to the unemployment gap.

Inflation expectations are mixed bag and could provide a touch of worry to some hawks. 10yr breakevens are below dangerous levels, but the Fed's preferred measure of 5y5y TIPS breakeven forwards have risen recently to above 3%, above the long term average, but still below the highs of last year. Survey based expectations like the UMich 5-years show expectations on that front to be contained. Overall concerning inflation, the Fed should note in the statement no real fear from upside inflation risks in the near term with risks over the forecast period still tilted to the downside, although it will be watching commodity prices closely and some may have growing uneasiness from some gauges of expectations.

One of the most delicate parts of the policy statement should be the wording around the Treasury buy program and the possible signal that the Fed may stop purchases when it hits $300bn, a little more than $50bn away. Risk is that it could blow the top out of bond yields which should already feel pressure from Treasury supply, but the Fed should say something in the name of transparency if not for credibility purposes. While the risk exists for more information on exit strategies the Fed may still choose to be cautious to say any specifics just yet as policy makers still have time, and do not want out any mixed signals. When it comes down to it the key forward looking part of the statement should remain unchanged, i.e. "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

The market seems to under appreciate the length of the journey needed to get back to a sustainable level of growth. Our base case scenario is unchanged with no Fed rate hikes until at least Q1 2011, although we do see risk of hikes occurring in late 2010 if the unwinding of the Fed's other measures are not quick enough. Our modified Taylor rule model which includes a zero bound constraint and the impact of the Fed's alternative policies suggest that even during the 2011-12 period rate hikes could be very cautious, and we use forecasts for slack which are more optimistic than in the July FOMC projections and current market forecasts. By 2012, the models also expect that the Fed should effectively leave zero interest rate policy. And as we have said before, even the most hawkish on the committee only see the potential for problematic upside inflation risks 4-5 years down the road, if the Fed does not remove accommodation in an appropriate manner.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

I have been playing chess to kill the time before the fomc announcement. My computer is developing a superiority complex - lol.

Hey you have found it's weakness.
So next time you will beat your computer ...

Lusan good one

Hey that's what I was trying to say - but it took me 4 paragraphs instead of 2 lines, and I spent most of it talking about myself.

Kein problem.
I am in riding my bull.

Edit: Now, I am square...my bucket full of pips...
Now I will wait to later today before jumping back in.

Happy hunting to all.