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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,721
  • Edited 7:29am Aug 11, 2009 5:54am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting pj9100
cinex,

Good job. I want to find out maximum drawdown for this strategy. How do I do backtest to find out what will be the maximum drawdown and the period it will run up to?

Thank you.
Hie there Pj.. Im Like U too wana try this system out.. But i did not backtest it cos i been readin this thread quite some time n it giving good result.. I open an micro account of $30usd n try out this system.. today i got roughly 200pips of profit.. Niwae i Started This Live Trade Yesterdae..Y not u download the indicator provided n paste on ur metatrader on Gbp/Jpy on 4hr timeframe,n u see the result..
  • #1,722
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:05am Aug 11, 2009 8:05am
Quoting garfield75
Hi Yen44x,

I am glad to add usefull & helpfull information to this great system.

I leave my SL to BE after TP1, don't move it or trail it, very tempting though to tinker with it to lock in additional money.

The way I look at it is that, I have got money in the bank already with TP1 being hit. TP2 & TP3 are bonus. Worst case scenario I won't get the bonus but I got paid anyway with TP1. Best case scenario I get paid and bonus too .
By leaving it at BE, you will get paid bonuses most of the time. Don't have exact stats (not a believer in...
Thanks guys:
Thanks to Garfield and everyone else who responded. This kind of input can make everyone more successful and lead to a very positive thread. Thanks again to everyone for their input.

Jim
  • #1,723
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:41am Aug 11, 2009 8:41am
Quoting pips info
Hi Guys....

Woke up this morning and seeing that all my TP is hit, 350 pips banked into my account !!

Btw, I heard there is earthquake in India and Japan, God bless all of them...

I would espect Japan share market will slump once it open this morning... Beware....

Cheers!!
Not necessary that it will slump. During times of natural disasters goverments may sell off a bunch of assets and pour money back into there economy for relief, these can cause the currencies to rally stronger for an unknown period. I remember reading it somewhere, may have been one of the books from Nassim Taleb (fooled by randomness, or Black Swan not sure), but it mentions that times like this, especially when it is quite disasterous then country needs the coin so usually there markets will have a small rally.

Someone correct me if I wrong.

Razor
  • #1,724
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:39am Aug 11, 2009 9:39am
Hi,

382 pips on my first trade with this system on a live account.

I did not even set the trades after the first 4h bar.... I did 4 hours later, as I ignored the alarm ......but as the price was still within the box I went in.



elmasmas
  • #1,725
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:46am Aug 11, 2009 9:46am
normally I use tp3 but after the massive move down and basically a retrace of the nfp move I switched to tp4 which got hit this morning. +372 pips. (I use 0:00 gmt candle for my box so the numbers are gonna be a little different). Thanks Ace for the system.
  • #1,726
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:48am Aug 11, 2009 9:48am
Hi~Ace

09.08.10

the week the system do very well~~

before 10 minuter ago.

the aud/jpy tp2.150pips get

but first aud/jpy buy order stop loss 75pips~

the gbp/jpy and the eud/jpy max profit near 500 pips!!!

2 day!i never get profit so fast~!!thank you!!!

can you tell me

in live trade~~

you trade 3 pairs.or 2pairs??

g/j e/j?and a/j?

i feel a/j profit less than g/j+e/j

why do you only trade 2 pairs???

and if you trade 2 pairs~

if you have 1000$.a order you will use many lots??

thank you answer

thank you again!!
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  • #1,727
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:53am Aug 11, 2009 11:53am
Quoting wjqblog
Hi~Ace

09.08.10

the week the system do very well~~

before 10 minuter ago.

the aud/jpy tp2.150pips get

but first aud/jpy buy order stop loss 75pips~

the gbp/jpy and the eud/jpy max profit near 500 pips!!!

2 day!i never get profit so fast~!!thank you!!!

can you tell me

in live trade~~

you trade 3 pairs.or 2pairs??

g/j e/j?and a/j?

i feel a/j profit less than g/j+e/j

why do you only trade 2 pairs???

and if you trade 2 pairs~

if you have 1000$.a order you will use many lots??

thank you answer

thank you again!!
Yes, your're right AUD/JPY does not profit as much as GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. This is why I don't trader AUD/JPY anymore. I just increase the lot number for my GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY trades to make up for not trading AUD/JPY.

For everyone, I'd suggest using G/Y instead of the other pairs and just increasing the size becasue that pair profits the most.

If you have a $1000 account. Then you should trade

GBP/JPY - 3-4 micro lots
EUR/JPY - 2 micro lots

It seems like a small portion of your account, but this is what professional traders do. They only risk 2-5% per trade. And thats exactly what I do.

Especially at the beginning because you have to learn position sizing for different times during your trading.

I've learned to follow certain rules that may not give me 100% of the profit but I don't feel any tension or fear when I enter a trade because I know that nothing drastic is going to happen if I win or lose. If I lose, doesn't matter too much becuase I can only lose about 3% of my account per trade at the risk im trading at. If I win, thats great I'd have a +11% - +12%. If those numbers are still too large, then decrease your postion so that your're comfortable.

I've done that consistantly over the past months and my account is doing great.

O Yeah, this is for everyone. I tested back until the start of the year. And placing stop to BE gave these results.

Winners - 40.43%
Losers - 23.40%
Breakeven - 36.17%

So before, the ratio was 40% winner and 60% loser. Looks MUCH better now. Got that 60% to turn into 23%
  • #1,728
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:02pm Aug 11, 2009 12:02pm
maybe something to look at is making adjustments on profit targets based on the box size. For example if your box is 200 pips and you were targeting tp4 the weekly candle would have to be 1000 pips from high to low. Its much more reasonable to assume tp2 would be reached. Conversely a box of say 100 pips is much more likely to have the chance to hit tp4. Ace, on your back test at what point were you moving sl to be and were you targeting tp4 on this test?
  • #1,729
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:16pm Aug 11, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting 11andy11
maybe something to look at is making adjustments on profit targets based on the box size. For example if your box is 200 pips and you were targeting tp4 the weekly candle would have to be 1000 pips from high to low. Its much more reasonable to assume tp2 would be reached. Conversely a box of say 100 pips is much more likely to have the chance to hit tp4. Ace, on your back test at what point were you moving sl to be and were you targeting tp4 on this test?
I tested based on the most basic rules. I used TP4 for every week and moved stop to BE after 1x had been hit. Keep in mind that I used TP4 even for the weeks with 200+ box sizes. There were actually 3 since Jan 09. None of them hit TP4 but for one of them TP2 was hit. The other one TP1 was hit, and the last one was a loser.

Like you said, if we do have a 200+ box then the target should be lower. That or, the week should not be traded.

Good observation andy.
  • #1,730
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:44pm Aug 11, 2009 12:44pm
Hi Ace,

Another great week using your system with a bit of a tweak . not going to give my pip count for the week
When I come to canada next year, I will buy you the best scotch available at the bar. (assuming you drink the golden nector).

Great work on backtesting stats to highlight moving SL to BE on TP1 is more profitable.

Cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,731
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:46pm Aug 11, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting garfield75
When I come to canada next year, I will buy you the best scotch available at the bar. (assuming you drink the golden nector).
Looking forward to it
  • #1,732
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:03pm Aug 11, 2009 1:03pm
HI ace
I read post 899

now i user atr(16) in gbp/jpy weekly .

atr(16)=6.3897 it means 638pips a weekly


change 4hr chart

start breakeven to max profit

pips go 405pips~and + candle high-to low+40 buffer.

total 546pips

but weelly 638pips

638-546=92 pips

i think i can cancel the gbp/jpy long order


but.....

now until tp4 it distance 132pips?~?

really go to tp4?

i set gbp/jpy tp4.

you set too??

really until tp4?

sorry my english very bad..

screenshot.

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and can you give me your msn?or that chat software?
  • #1,733
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:08pm Aug 11, 2009 1:08pm
wjqblog, its hard to understand but I think your adding a 40 pip buffer to figure tp which is incorrect. You just use 20 as your stop shouldn't be 20 pips on the other side of entry candle.
  • #1,734
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:38pm Aug 11, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting 11andy11
wjqblog, its hard to understand but I think your adding a 40 pip buffer to figure tp which is incorrect. You just use 20 as your stop shouldn't be 20 pips on the other side of entry candle.
Hi 11andy11

my means

example the week gbp/jpy

the box range
high+20 162.90+20=163.10
low+20 162.03-20=161.83

the box size=163.10-161.83=127 pips

if 4x tp

than 127*4=508pips

but

the weely atr(16) range a weekly range 638pips

638-127(bos size)=511pips

511pips>548pips

i think the week gpb/jpy price can't go to 4x tp.
only go to 3x tp
  • #1,735
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:45pm Aug 11, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting wjqblog
HI ace
I read post 899

now i user atr(16) in gbp/jpy weekly .

atr(16)=6.3897 it means 638pips a weekly


change 4hr chart

start breakeven to max profit

pips go 405pips~and + candle high-to low+40 buffer.

total 546pips

but weelly 638pips

638-546=92 pips

i think i can cancel the gbp/jpy long order


but.....

now until tp4...
Its only moved about 523 pips so far. The ATR(16) for weekly is 647 pips. If TP4 was hit it would be a move of about 627 which is within the average.
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  • #1,736
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:49pm Aug 11, 2009 1:49pm
Yeah you guys can add me on msn if you want to chat.
  • #1,737
  • Aug 11, 2009 2:11pm Aug 11, 2009 2:11pm
thank you ace

i know

i add you.

thank you
  • #1,738
  • Aug 11, 2009 5:01pm Aug 11, 2009 5:01pm
Quoting garfield75
Hi Yen44x,

I am glad to add usefull & helpfull information to this great system.

I leave my SL to BE after TP1, don't move it or trail it, very tempting though to tinker with it to lock in additional money.

The way I look at it is that, I have got money in the bank already with TP1 being hit. TP2 & TP3 are bonus. Worst case scenario I won't get the bonus but I got paid anyway with TP1. Best case scenario I get paid and bonus too .
By leaving it at BE, you will get paid bonuses most of the time. Don't have exact stats (not a believer in...
Hi Garfield:
Congratulations on a couple of fantastic weeks, unfortunately I just started trading yesterday, but a nice start to a week. I know you're moving your stop to BE at TP1, have you thought of moving it to TP1 when TP2 hit, moving it to TP2 when TP3 hit, etc. This way you give it some room to move, granted not as much as leaving it at BE, but you won't have to watch a profitable trade move all the way back to BE, just thinking out loud, like to hear your opinion. Again, congratulations on a great start to the month.

Jim
  • #1,739
  • Aug 11, 2009 5:27pm Aug 11, 2009 5:27pm
Hi Ace ... Thank you have just added you to my msn.

Looking forward to chatting more about this strategy.
  • #1,740
  • Aug 11, 2009 6:02pm Aug 11, 2009 6:02pm
My eurJpy trade have also hit TP. Overall nice encouraging week for this method, Will keep demo trading it for a couple month, so far my easiest stress free method. Will post results from time to time but you guys already know the outcome.

Good luck to us all.
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