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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #188,381
  • Aug 10, 2009 5:06pm Aug 10, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting quecee5
Also, another note. . . if u take a look at the weekly chart (MACD) do you find is peculiar that we saw a new high last week however MACD did not recognize it and is steadily diverging south????

Take a looke at the 1st high we made back in June at 162.56 area and line that up with MACD. . . Then draw a horizontal line from last weeks high and line that up with MACD. . . Do u find that peculiar?. . .

Also from the looks of the daily chart MACD is also diverging lower. . .

Just food for thought. . . Trade yr chart!
food for thought for sure....thank you.
  • #188,382
  • Aug 10, 2009 5:29pm Aug 10, 2009 5:29pm
I agree with the bullish outlook for the GBP/USD over the next few months, but this short term rally in the dollar brings good trading for those a little less patient. We basically have two things going on, declining US unemployment and British Quant. Easing. Coupled together it seems like one would be bearish on the pair, but as far as staying power beyond the news release, I thing a long is a safer bet. Thoughts?

What I've found is that many Traders read the news, but very few actually hold the position long enough for the news to effect them. Spending all the time doing the research doesnt help you if you are placing 50 intraday trades.

I've have personally found the GBP/USD to be one of the most consistent pairs out there. Correlating, but with less overall volatility than the EUR/USD. I've received a higher success rate tracking the long term (for example daily), but the 4h is much more fun. Anyway, I've just started a journal at stphns85.wordpress.com
  • #188,383
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:14pm Aug 10, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting martinipips
Anyone please help. Whats the relationship or rather correlation between the CNY and the GBP & the Yen?
as far as i know there is no direct relationship between the CNY and GBPJPY. All there is the US whinging about the CNY being undervalued. The main thing to take into consideration is that the china story has become a rallying point in the global recovery fable. a strong report should bring short term rally in the carry trade.
  • #188,384
  • Edited 7:07pm Aug 10, 2009 6:39pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting mktjong
I also saw on 15 min volume coming in quite high on GU, maybe buyers stepping in (?) Any comment?

I don't get a chance to read or post here anymore...

But I didn't see any mention of the 30 pip gap up DURING the US session, but since that time it looks like lots of buying.

They pretty much held the U/J all day AND the eur/gbp rose which imply stop hunts on the GBP as EUR fell with the Eur/GBP rising.

I longed the GBP/USD at 1.6447- (SL at BE now) but really with futures down I may need to short for another day or maybe cut my pips and run.. Volume was low today. Last week really looked like distribution to me on the 4HR charts- but I'm not sure how low pro's need to move the mkt to earn their $$$...

If EUR/USD completes "filling its gap" then I would expect the same from the GBP USD as for the last couple of weeks the G/U has Lagged the E/U in every move...And if E/U Doesn't fill it's gap...
  • #188,385
  • Aug 10, 2009 6:53pm Aug 10, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting GBPUSDballer
I agree with the bullish outlook for the GBP/USD over the next few months, but this short term rally in the dollar brings good trading for those a little less patient. We basically have two things going on, declining US unemployment and British Quant. Easing. Coupled together it seems like one would be bearish on the pair, but as far as staying power beyond the news release, I thing a long is a safer bet. Thoughts?

What I've found is that many Traders read the news, but very few actually hold the position long enough for the news to effect them....
I disagree completely. I dont believe in that bullish outlook. Imho GBP is one of the most overvalued currencies in the world and really, fundamentally it shoud be at 1.35. The fundamentals or eco releases from the UK are mostly very good. Funny how this coincides with the last political crisis where Gordon Brown was almost forced to step up as a PM. Once he saved his butt all of a sudden good figures came out, the one better as the other. Even BOE claimed that by year end recession would be over!! Although they also ventilated that they were worried about the surging Pound. You talk about declining unemployment in the US? Man, that you believe those heavily manipulated figs. Real unemployment, counting everything in that ought to be calculated brings the US unemployment fig closer to 20% as to 10%. Do you have any clue how the BLS cooks those "nice numbers"? It's incredible. Forget about gbp longs as gbp is about to go back where it belongs....down the drain!
My guesstimate, by end of the week we test 1.6000
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  • #188,386
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:01pm Aug 10, 2009 7:01pm
GBPUSD less overall volatility than EURUSD?

i don't think so.....
  • #188,387
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:06pm Aug 10, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting Eulogy
GBPUSD less overall volatility than EURUSD?

i don't think so.....
I respect your opinion but that's what all bulls will tell me instinctively, in the mean time using technical arguments to support their view. Do not forget whats going on fundamentally.
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  • #188,388
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:10pm Aug 10, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting azibi
I respect your opinion but that's what all bulls will tell me instinctively, in the mean time using technical arguments to support their view. Do not forget whats going on fundamentally.
LOL i was responding to Cable-baller's call with that volatility quote.

and no, i'm not a bull, i'm a heavy perma-bear. Forget 1.35, lets go to parity.
  • #188,389
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:18pm Aug 10, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting Eulogy
LOL i was responding to Cable-baller's call with that volatility quote.

and no, i'm not a bull, i'm a heavy perma-bear. Forget 1.35, lets go to parity.
Ahhh sorry about that; anywyas am glad you are on the same side. Btw
imagine cable at 175/180/190; wherw should eur/uds be in that case? 150/160/170?? As Europe is an "export" region in this world our politicians would NEVER allow for such high euro rates...and the Brits neither.....
That's why it simply will not happen.....
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  • #188,390
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:23pm Aug 10, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting azibi
Ahhh sorry about that; anywyas am glad you are on the same side. Btw
imagine cable at 175/180/190; wherw should eur/uds be in that case? 150/160/170?? As Europe is an "export" region in this world our politicians would NEVER allow for such high euro rates...and the Brits neither.....
That's why it simply will not happen.....
The ECB is not going to allow the EU to get up to anywhere near 1.6 like back in 07. They only tolerated that inflated exchange rate because back then because it still had growth, some inflation and possibly the most stupid of all IR decisions when Trichet raised from 4% to 4.25% before flopping over the next month and subsequently had to cut down to 1%. Its still remarkably strange that he wasn't ousted for being a moron with that rate hike.
  • #188,391
  • Aug 10, 2009 7:57pm Aug 10, 2009 7:57pm
Quoting Eulogy
The ECB is not going to allow the EU to get up to anywhere near 1.6 like back in 07. They only tolerated that inflated exchange rate because back then because it still had growth, some inflation and possibly the most stupid of all IR decisions when Trichet raised from 4% to 4.25% before flopping over the next month and subsequently had to cut down to 1%. Its still remarkably strange that he wasn't ousted for being a moron with that rate hike.
You know your stuff! European too?
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  • #188,392
  • Aug 10, 2009 8:49pm Aug 10, 2009 8:49pm
Quoting azibi
You know your stuff! European too?
nah. Aussie - its in my profile.
  • #188,393
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:52pm Aug 10, 2009 9:52pm
what a drop
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #188,394
  • Aug 10, 2009 9:55pm Aug 10, 2009 9:55pm
When I was looking at this on friday and sunday morning everyone was looking to buy! I have been short for 2 weeks now...I guess all the LONG People split....or unwilling to put up their money to buy it up....

Quoting Flem26
what a drop
  • #188,395
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:03pm Aug 10, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting Flem26
what a drop
Bank stop check, buy and enjoy...
  • #188,396
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:03pm Aug 10, 2009 10:03pm
GUYS i just had a Margin call!!!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #188,397
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:05pm Aug 10, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting LuckyRoost
Bank stop check, buy and enjoy...
If you check, every pair dropped U/J, E/J, A/J, G/J, G/U- only means one thing...
  • #188,398
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:10pm Aug 10, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting LuckyRoost
If you check, every pair dropped U/J, E/J, A/J, G/J, G/U- only means one thing...
Yup.. means go have a celebration drink if you were SHORT!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #188,399
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:14pm Aug 10, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting tathlynq
Yup.. means go have a celebration drink if you were SHORT!
word.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #188,400
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:16pm Aug 10, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting Raza
GUYS i just had a Margin call!!!
?????????
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