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Simplest Daily EMA Cross System

  • #121
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:44pm Mar 9, 2009 2:44pm
Have this setup and simple is always the way to go and usually ends up being the best in a complex environment. Stupid question. From the crossover entry, which EMA crossover determines a long or short entry?

Thanks Devtrader101.

I also use a simple MACD/RSI indicator that usually naild a range tope or bottom over 95% of the time.


Quoting Dreamliner
Disregard the poll, people are voting without having done the backtesting that was a requirement in order to vote.

Greetings friends,

I have tried many things in the Forex world and so far have discovered hundreds of ways that won't work for me. I can't seem to guess market direction well, I hate scalping personally, and carry trades have gotten me margin called.

But I do believe I have found a method that works for me. When I share this method you are going to think it is too simple, and will...
  • #122
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:02pm Mar 9, 2009 3:02pm
Haven't finished reading the thread.......

However, firstly thanks to Dreamliner for this great contribution.

It looks simple, but therefore it looks promising.

IS THERE AN EA MADE YET???

if not, i can make one right away.

let me know....
  • #123
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:55pm Mar 9, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting charvo
Haven't finished reading the thread.......

However, firstly thanks to Dreamliner for this great contribution.

It looks simple, but therefore it looks promising.

IS THERE AN EA MADE YET???

if not, i can make one right away.

let me know....
Charvo, could you add email alert to Dreamliner's indicator?
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #124
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:25pm Mar 9, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Charvo, could you add email alert to Dreamliner's indicator?
I'd try that after EA is coded. Bear with me, please.
  • #125
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:41am Mar 10, 2009 12:41am
I believe that I coded the EA right.

But the backtests show that it is far from being profitable according to the original rules.

I'll upload the EA after I get it right. Now it is a junk.

I don't know what my EA's problem is.

One question:

If I want to place a LONG on Wednesday 00:01 am, I need to have a EMA cross signal that has:
1.Monday EMA5 < Monday EMA8
2.Tuesday EMA5 > Tuesday EMA8

Are these 2 conditions enough for a valid cross? or I also need ......?
  • #126
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:56am Mar 10, 2009 12:56am
Please see the attached chart.

On 2008 July 25 00:01 AM, the EMA crossed on the previous day (July 24th, with a red arrow on top). So in July 25's 1st minute, the system entered a short trade.

That day, as you can see (with a red vertical line), is a loss, when closed at the end of day.

Then gbpusd fall 2400 pips without a cross. but I would be out of market anyway. That is unbearable for such a trend-catching system.

Where am I wrong at?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eeee.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #127
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:50am Mar 10, 2009 1:50am
Quoting charvo
Please see the attached chart.

On 2008 July 25 00:01 AM, the EMA crossed on the previous day (July 24th, with a red arrow on top). So in July 25's 1st minute, the system entered a short trade.

That day, as you can see (with a red vertical line), is a loss, when closed at the end of day.

Then gbpusd fall 2400 pips without a cross. but I would be out of market anyway. That is unbearable for such a trend-catching system.

Where am I wrong at?
Hello Charvo. I think your logic is sound. I for one expected some signficant drawdown, so I think your EA did what I would have expected. Dreamliner would know better of course, and I will take another look at your chart.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #128
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:57am Mar 10, 2009 7:57am
Quoting SpecialEd
Hello Charvo. I think your logic is sound. I for one expected some signficant drawdown, so I think your EA did what I would have expected. Dreamliner would know better of course, and I will take another look at your chart.
I am pretty sure that this EA is loyal to both 1st post and the EMAcrossSignal.mq4 that dreamliner provided.

however, it is not that profitable, and with large drawdowns.

EA is here, anyone interested, may backtest and improve it.

Use defaults, that's original rules. I found that not closing at the end of day could be in fact profitable sometimes (set "CloseSwitch = false").

Dreamliner, for your backtests, do you have more details about how many trades? or exact entry/exits?

Thanks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EMA_Dreamliner.ex4   13 KB | 472 downloads
File Type: mq4 EMA_Dreamliner.mq4   5 KB | 584 downloads
  • #129
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:12pm Apr 1, 2009 3:12pm
Hello,

I backtested the EA which was posted earlier in the thread. If I check it with EMA short=3 and Long=8 and 0.1 lot size it works always pretty well but it can happen that I have one fatal loss which results in a margin call. How can that happen?

I tested EUR/USD from Jan 1st 2008 to Jan 1st 2009. Fatal loss happens in October.

Maybe somebody could explain me that behavior.

Thanks,
Thilo

P.S.: I attached the file from the previous post one more time. (it is not from me)
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 EMA_CROSS.mq4   6 KB | 457 downloads
  • #130
  • Apr 1, 2009 3:46pm Apr 1, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting thilool
Hello,

I backtested the EA which was posted earlier in the thread. If I check it with EMA short=3 and Long=8 and 0.1 lot size it works always pretty well but it can happen that I have one fatal loss which results in a margin call. How can that happen?

I tested EUR/USD from Jan 1st 2008 to Jan 1st 2009. Fatal loss happens in October.

Maybe somebody could explain me that behavior.

Thanks,
Thilo

P.S.: I attached the file from the previous post one more time. (it is not from me)
First off , margin calls can and will happen at any given time ... Nature of the beast for trading ... second ... did you over extend on you equity or free margin ... so when a trade goes against you .. margin call will be triggered to cover your account costs ?... So money management is vital for any trade ... always have enough in the account for each trade to cover for margin call ... less likely to get a margin call ...hopes this helps ... buffalopip...
  • #131
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:00pm Apr 1, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting buffalopip
First off , margin calls can and will happen at any given time ... Nature of the beast for trading ... second ... did you over extend on you equity or free margin ... so when a trade goes against you .. margin call will be triggered to cover your account costs ?... So money management is vital for any trade ... always have enough in the account for each trade to cover for margin call ... less likely to get a margin call ...hopes this helps ... buffalopip...
I know that money management is very crucial. I was just wondering if somebody looked already closer in this EA and could tell me why it does not stop out at any given point? (especially in the EUR/USD example)
If I change the EA and add a Stop loss in each order the system generates not profit but goes slowly down to a zero balance .
Any advise? Since the EA otherwise performes really great I am very interested in this question.

Thanks,
thilo
  • #132
  • Apr 1, 2009 4:15pm Apr 1, 2009 4:15pm
Use a 5 day ATR stop loss ... will help avoid those tardes that reverse and start eating up all your profits .. Or use the last day High or Low for a stop loss then add a few more pips for breathing room .... thats up to you for the pip size ... feel it out ... will save many pips , instead of leaving the back door open and have pips taken away for no reason at all ... use a stop loss , anykind .... then adjust to the trade ......
  • #133
  • Aug 7, 2009 11:49am Aug 7, 2009 11:49am
Hi,

I just want to add that I also played with the 5/8 ema cross on daily TF recently, but the MM I used was 1 X ATR(13) for SL and 1.5 X ATR(13) for TP. I got interesting results bactesting 13 pairs from Jan2009 to June2009 (see results), only trading in the direction of higher TF.

Just to compare with Dreamliner results on post #1, I backtested GBPUSD from data in 2007 and 2008 and got +2980 pips (+3145 pips minus -165 pips for spread). Overall, the win ratio was 61% wich is not very high, but the RR seems appropriate. 2007 was a tough year (53% win ratio) and 2008 a lot better (69%). But trading many pairs should level the winning rate to a more regular positive result in time. Just my 2 pips.

Chamane
  • #134
  • Aug 7, 2009 1:28pm Aug 7, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting chamane
Hi,

I just want to add that I also played with the 5/8 ema cross on daily TF recently, but the MM I used was 1 X ATR(13) for SL and 1.5 X ATR(13) for TP. I got interesting results bactesting 13 pairs from Jan2009 to June2009 (see results), only trading in the direction of higher TF.

Just to compare with Dreamliner results on post #1, I backtested GBPUSD from data in 2007 and 2008 and got +2980 pips (+3145 pips minus -165 pips for spread). Overall, the win ratio...
Did you backtest MA cross using indicator from first post? If yes, it has no sence cose it repaints arrows
  • #135
  • Last Post: Aug 7, 2009 5:53pm Aug 7, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting Dezil
Did you backtest MA cross using indicator from first post? If yes, it has no sence cose it repaints arrows
The arrows are just a sound alert for me.

Chamane

http://i28.tinypic.com/35clq8k.gif
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