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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #187,981
  • Aug 7, 2009 5:51am Aug 7, 2009 5:51am
hello traders
it would be easy to say that we could sell again at 160.00
as i see it strong level,
but as we have friday and usd pregnant of news i am not that much betting on that - we may not see big fall today
  • #187,982
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:07am Aug 7, 2009 6:07am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Better risk/reward waiting IMO. Wait for the spike and go in the opposite direction.

There are bound to be whipsaws before the report which will shake out the straddle trades too.
this is true. 7 out of the last 8 NFPs have spiked one way then spent the rest of the day going the other way. still takes some balls to see a big spike going onw way after nfp and decide you going to go the other

problem is spreads go through the roof as well, expect 25-30 pips, waiting until spreads go back down probably means missing it. ill wait and see what it does, if it spikes one way ill watch for it to start going the other way and have a go.
  • #187,983
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:20am Aug 7, 2009 6:20am
Quoting for_idea
hello traders
it would be easy to say that we could sell again at 160.00
as i see it strong level,
but as we have friday and usd pregnant of news i am not that much betting on that - we may not see big fall today
eu daily on evening star ..gj eveningf star....we are not sure what NFP will do again but term trend is bearish..
if no big fall u should welcome EU at 1.5XX
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #187,984
  • Aug 7, 2009 6:34am Aug 7, 2009 6:34am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Better risk/reward waiting IMO. Wait for the spike and go in the opposite direction.

There are bound to be whipsaws before the report which will shake out the straddle trades too.
I agree completely.

I got hit twice. (one time a whipsaw got me by 1 pip and then ran out my SL) so I stopped hedging news.

The spread drops after the spike so catching the retrace is much less stressful and much less costly.

my heart gets enough of a workout with normal trading.
  • #187,985
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:22am Aug 7, 2009 7:22am
Quoting Fudomyo
I agree completely.

I got hit twice. (one time a whipsaw got me by 1 pip and then ran out my SL) so I stopped hedging news.

The spread drops after the spike so catching the retrace is much less stressful and much less costly.

my heart gets enough of a workout with normal trading.
Agreed totally
  • #187,986
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:23am Aug 7, 2009 7:23am
looking at this big up move now breaking 160, it wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if thats to sucker in longs, then a spike up when it comes out to sucker in a load more before they ram it down everyones throats back past 159.

or they are all going long knowing the thing is going to fly once it comes out so they are getting in early.

im anticipating a spike up and then a shorting opportunity unless the number is REALLY good like -250k.
  • #187,987
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:35am Aug 7, 2009 7:35am
was the news bad?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #187,988
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:37am Aug 7, 2009 7:37am
well thats a shocker!! -247 and unemployment actually DROPS to 9.4! thats huge! up and up and up we go after that i think! wowzer!!

very odd numbers indeed but i can see gj breaking 162.50 shortly after that!

and now we know exactly why they were all going long before the release.
  • #187,989
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:38am Aug 7, 2009 7:38am
Quoting donfriday
was the news bad?
Yes, really bad for short
  • #187,990
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:41am Aug 7, 2009 7:41am
Quoting mktjong
Yes, really bad for short

this market is crasy..i was long on uch ..if the news was bad whi uj rising? why uch drop and now rising?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #187,991
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:41am Aug 7, 2009 7:41am
Everyone will be thinking long right now. ES just crept over 1000 on this candle, but needs to close above it. If it cannot sustain over 1000 on this news, then downtrend will be back in play IMO.
  • #187,992
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:46am Aug 7, 2009 7:46am
Those NFP numbers are a load of fabricated crap! So ADP was totally wrong??!! I think not..... just our govt, trying to look good, when they are in fact going to extend benefits again because no one can get work! Total Garbage!
  • #187,993
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:48am Aug 7, 2009 7:48am
Close to 300 pips up with the news ..
  • #187,994
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:50am Aug 7, 2009 7:50am
Quoting FX Dad
Those NFP numbers are a load of fabricated crap! So ADP was totally wrong??!! I think not..... just our govt, trying to look good, when they are in fact going to extend benefits again because no one can get work! Total Garbage!
ADP is often wrong anyway based on past results. i couldnt care less whether the numbers are fabricated or not, ill just trade what i see.
  • #187,995
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:57am Aug 7, 2009 7:57am
Quoting mktjong
Close to 300 pips up with the news ..

pls my question is why they have to move the market to other direction and not the right way accordding to the news...
my previous experience was OFMC member sometime ago when eu was at 1.2XX i short gj and tp hit 135 but in a twinkle of an eyes gu and eu rise 500 pips ...why they doing all this crab
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #187,996
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:01am Aug 7, 2009 8:01am
Quoting donfriday
pls my question is why they have to move the market to other direction and not the right way accordding to the news...
my previous experience was OFMC member sometime ago when eu was at 1.2XX i short gj and tp hit 135 but in a twinkle of an eyes gu and eu rise 500 pips ...why they doing all this crab

that is why it is NFP. It is those big boys that decide where the currency should go and not the market.
  • #187,997
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:04am Aug 7, 2009 8:04am
Quoting donfriday
pls my question is why they have to move the market to other direction and not the right way accordding to the news...
my previous experience was OFMC member sometime ago when eu was at 1.2XX i short gj and tp hit 135 but in a twinkle of an eyes gu and eu rise 500 pips ...why they doing all this crab
They do anything to make money ..
Might be a good time to short now ... (short term tho)
  • #187,998
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:12am Aug 7, 2009 8:12am
Quoting donfriday
pls my question is why they have to move the market to other direction and not the right way accordding to the news...
my previous experience was OFMC member sometime ago when eu was at 1.2XX i short gj and tp hit 135 but in a twinkle of an eyes gu and eu rise 500 pips ...why they doing all this crab
This dirty moves from banks and big gays to hit most of stopes
really they are dirty
  • #187,999
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:13am Aug 7, 2009 8:13am
Quoting mktjong
They do anything to make money ..
Might be a good time to short now ... (short term tho)

this is to bad for me today...i long gj 159.14 lock 6 pips and close me then fly...omg
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #188,000
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:18am Aug 7, 2009 8:18am
Quoting khaled22
This dirty moves from banks and big gays to hit most of stopes
really they are dirty
thats why i dont use STOPS
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