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Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #181
  • Aug 4, 2009 11:24am Aug 4, 2009 11:24am
tunji how long do trade thise way?
can u show us u r log trades?
  • #182
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:04pm Aug 4, 2009 1:04pm
Pls lets keep it simple
lets keep the limit of possible trade discussion within the scope
defined by the thread starter.

i think the guy is focused and wonna show consistency with his approach and moreover newbies will love it that way.

lets keep our longterm analysis or post somewhere and lets keep this thread as simple as the thread starter wanted it.
  • #183
  • Aug 4, 2009 1:49pm Aug 4, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting Superscalper
tunji how long do trade thise way?
can u show us u r log trades?
Hello Superscalper, I’ve been trading this way (and its variations) for over six months, but until recently, I’ve not been consistent with it. In the last twelve-month period, I recorded a negligible profit – breakeven, so to speak. I believe being consistent will enhance the steady growth of my equity curve – as well as other traders’; hence, the need for this thread.

@ Naijafx

Thanks for your contribution.
  • #184
  • Aug 5, 2009 3:25am Aug 5, 2009 3:25am
Thanks Tunji for your kind and matured words. I'll keep it simple and conform to the thread's objective.
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #185
  • Edited 3:49am Aug 5, 2009 3:33am | Edited 3:49am
Pls NOTE: The majors seem to be currently “sleeping:” nothing much to discuss in terms of bias.

Based on yesterday’s analysis, if you positioned yourself for the USDJPY Short trade set-up, regardless of the level you chose to enter your trade, your Limit Order would’ve been filled.
The trade, however, turned out to be a very “sluggish” trade – in terms of it moving in our favor; but the good news is it offered us the opportunity to reduce our initial risk, while holding on to our primary profit target – indirectly, exponentially increasing our reward:risk ratio.
Personally, I believe a very good trade-management skill is much better than a very good trading method: bad trade-management will turn the best of trading methods to a loser-strategy. That’s my personal opinion though; but I believed it is a view shared by most of us. Unlike my trading method, my trade-management approach is still a work-in-progress.

Please note that as much as I appreciate this thread’s focus on the primary method discussed, I also appreciate diverse ideas on trade-management. Unlike trading methods, I believe there’re hardly any two persons that manage their trades exactly the same way, but we can learn from each other.

Consequently, I’ll like to explain the few steps I took in managing the USDJPY Short trade:

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, though price convincingly broke the upward trend-line downward, it reversed sharply to close above it. That, to me, is enough cause for concern that price might be reversing upward.

On the H4 chart (attached), further confirming the Daily chart price action, price seems to be having a hard time staying below the upward trend-line as the last full candle closed on the trend-line – not exactly below it.

On the Hourly chart (attached), most recent candle pattern (a quasi “Railway-track”) suggests imminent price retracement upward – not necessarily a complete reversal; but in the light of the higher time frames, I decided to monitor the Short trade more closely.

On the 15min chart (attached), I drew a new Fibonacci from the most recent Hourly swing high @ 95.38 to the current-bottom @ 94.85 to identify a possible retracement level that might halt the current upward move of price. Price moved up to the fib 38.2% ret. @ 95.05 (very close to confluence of fib 50% ret. @ 95.11 and a previous Hourly swing low also @ 95.11), and then formed a 15min reversal candle (hammer).
With the “story” price was telling – keeping in mind the upward pressure on price on higher time frames, I moved my Stop Loss to 2 pips above the reversal candle (I also factored in my broker’s spread) when price moved downward by 9 pips in profit, which equaled to the same number of pips between the new Stop Loss and my Entry level. At the same time, I took off half of my position (I had 2 lots). At that moment, the worst that would happen was for me to end the trade in breakeven – which was exactly what eventually happened.

I hope the above explanation is clear enough. Sincerely, there’s no right or wrong way to manage our trades. That’s why I appreciate unrestricted conversation regarding trade-management.
I’m only trying to follow Warren Buffett’s hint: Rule number one, don’t lose money. Rule number two, don’t forget rule number one. Rule number three, don’t go into debt.
As I said, my trade-management approach is still a work-in-progress. I’m beginning to accept the fact that if a trade would earn me maximum profit, it should do it without giving me unnecessary hassle. I only need a few trades with maximum profits to be profitable – as long as I keep my losses very low in an informed manner.

I apologize for this very lengthy explanation.
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  • #186
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:07am Aug 5, 2009 5:07am
Quoting D liberators
Thanks Tunji for your kind and matured words. I'll keep it simple and conform to the thread's objective.
Thanks D liberators, I really hope we would all help ourselves achieve steadily rising equity curve.
  • #187
  • Aug 5, 2009 7:12am Aug 5, 2009 7:12am
Quoting Tunji
Thanks D liberators, I really hope we would all help ourselves achieve steadily rising equity curve.
I'll like to suggest we get a trading/trainning room where you could teach, in between waiting for signals.

I believe this way will be faster to learn and improve.

What sayest thou?
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #188
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:50am Aug 5, 2009 8:50am
Quoting D liberators
I'll like to suggest we get a trading/trainning room where you could teach, in between waiting for signals.

I believe this way will be faster to learn and improve.

What sayest thou?
Teaching is way beyond me for now; let me have years of record to prove myself first. Fortunately, by then, I won’t be teaching anybody currently around – since we would’ve all become successful traders in our own rights.

I’m currently in a GBPUSD Long trade (Hourly and 15min charts attached). I wasn’t too confident of the set-up, partly due to heavy news releases between 12:15GMT & 14:00GMT. I reduced my risk; currently, I’ve moved my Stop Loss to break-even as price moved in my favor by almost the same amount of pips initially risked. So, worst case scenario is no-loss-no-gain.

My Entry @ 1.6943 (using the daily pivot between overlapping fibs @ 61.8% ret. & 78.6% ret.);
Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6898;
Primary profit target @ 1.7080.
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  • #189
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:58am Aug 5, 2009 8:58am
i have learned a lot about different strategies over the past 3 years. The truth is, almost all of them work...In my opinion Fibonacci the bottom line in any trading method. the key to any strategy is discipline and correct money management.... I manage other account besides my own...here is the key to my money mangement... I trade mostly the first of the month...once i get up 300 to 500 pips...i stop, till the next month. Simplistic you might say...but i tell you it makes a difference. Many traders get so involved in trying to play catch up from week to week. For example...you traded all week...spent countless hours in screen time..and you blow it all on friday...well sunday night you feel you are starting in the hole and need to do whatever it takes to regain your losses and make some money the next week...so you start making stupid trades and breaking your discipline...it sound simple...but i am telling you it is much practical as it is psychological...there is a little more to it...but that the gist of it....If you can trade positive month after month...then it is not a matter of "if" you will be prosperous but rather "when" you will be prosperous...

another note...if any of you guys trading live would be intrested in pip rebate....let me know...i might can hook you up.
  • #190
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:27am Aug 5, 2009 9:27am
Nice one Tunji.

I'm also in GU long

EG short and GJ long.
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #191
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:57am Aug 5, 2009 9:57am
Quoting preacher165
i have learned a lot about different strategies over the past 3 years. The truth is, almost all of them work...In my opinion Fibonacci the bottom line in any trading method. the key to any strategy is discipline and correct money management.... I manage other account besides my own...here is the key to my money mangement... I trade mostly the first of the month...once i get up 300 to 500 pips...i stop, till the next month. Simplistic you might say...but i tell you it makes a difference. Many traders get so involved in trying to play catch up from...

Wats pip rebate?
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #192
  • Aug 5, 2009 3:06pm Aug 5, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting Naijafx
Pls lets keep it simple
lets keep the limit of possible trade discussion within the scope
defined by the thread starter.

i think the guy is focused and wonna show consistency with his approach and moreover newbies will love it that way.

lets keep our longterm analysis or post somewhere and lets keep this thread as simple as the thread starter wanted it.
Thank you Naijafx,you spoke for my kinds.I am a typical newbie whose fx trading future may depend on grasping the logics of this system.I'll be glad if you the more experienced guys do not confuse us the newbies.I am learning a great deal from here.Thanks to Tunji and all you folks who make your wealth of knowledge available free...you are highly appreciated and may God reward you in millions of pips!!!Thank you all for keeping it simple for us!!!
  • #193
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:39pm Aug 5, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting D liberators
Nice one Tunji.

I'm also in GU long

EG short and GJ long.
Closing all as profitable trades would sure be a great way to start a new month
  • #194
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:46pm Aug 5, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting preacher165
i have learned a lot about different strategies over the past 3 years. The truth is, almost all of them work...In my opinion Fibonacci the bottom line in any trading method. the key to any strategy is discipline and correct money management.... I manage other account besides my own...here is the key to my money mangement... I trade mostly the first of the month...once i get up 300 to 500 pips...i stop, till the next month. Simplistic you might say...but i tell you it makes a difference. Many traders get so involved in trying to play catch up from...
Nice insights Preacher.
  • #195
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:18pm Aug 5, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting jeffokes
Thank you Naijafx,you spoke for my kinds.I am a typical newbie whose fx trading future may depend on grasping the logics of this system.I'll be glad if you the more experienced guys do not confuse us the newbies.I am learning a great deal from here.Thanks to Tunji and all you folks who make your wealth of knowledge available free...you are highly appreciated and may God reward you in millions of pips!!!Thank you all for keeping it simple for us!!!
Jeffokes, you’re much welcome; I’m sure that once every one of us understood fully a major goal of this thread, virtually all inputs would be complementary and helpful. Certain inputs from more experienced traders might not always be easily understood at first (just like a Gartley pattern Rumba identified on the 15min chart in a previous post), but they could be very helpful: gaining additional insights within the context of the thread’s primary method could go a long way in helping us to grasp further the dynamic nature of the markets.
  • #196
  • Aug 5, 2009 11:40pm Aug 5, 2009 11:40pm
Hello all,
Find this a really good thread.
Has been very educational for me with regard to fibs, I trade medium term
and use candle chart analysis.
I would like to add a little here, hopefully it will help.

Although cable has seem to be an express train I have noticed the daily high/low range is getting smaller and we had a doji on the 4th.
Hope my little observation is of help here

regards

gamma
  • #197
  • Edited 1:41am Aug 6, 2009 1:33am | Edited 1:41am
Pls NOTE: I believe all the majors are simply waiting for the major news announcements: Rate announcements, etcetera, from Europe & Britain today; NFP, etcetera, from US tomorrow. At the other extreme, we might experience intense volatility. Let’s be of wary this current environment.

On the Daily chart (attached), price is hovering around the upper part of what I believe is referred to as a rising wedge (I’m still learning about the formation). Based on the recent “doji” candles formation, we would notice the last two days ended indecisively. There is a possibility price would want to break above the wedge – based on fundamental leaning; there’s also a possibility price might want to retrace to the lower side. There seems to be a need for catalyst here. In short, the market is currently indecisive.

On the H4 chart (attached), it’s pretty obvious the market has been hibernating for days; we need active movement to have an informed bias.

On the Hourly chart (attached), market’s very subdued activity is just very visible. I believe patience is the key here.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Hourly 060809.gif Size: 16 KB
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  • #198
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:31am Aug 6, 2009 3:31am
Quoting Gamma
Hello all,
Find this a really good thread.
Has been very educational for me with regard to fibs, I trade medium term
and use candle chart analysis.
I would like to add a little here, hopefully it will help.

Although cable has seem to be an express train I have noticed the daily high/low range is getting smaller and we had a doji on the 4th.
Hope my little observation is of help here

regards

gamma
Hello Gamma, it’s great that you find this thread helpful. You’re absolutely free to contribute to our learning process. Just as with other threads, we’re here to learn. To maintain consistency, it would be very much appreciated if your contributions complement the primary method discussed on the thread. I believe that, by limiting the methods we discuss, we’re able to explore, in depth, other important areas that make up a well-rounded trading system, which include the overall view of the market (which you just did in simple words), trading psychology, and the very important various trade-management approaches.

Thanks for the insightful input you just made, and I hope we all grow in this trading business together.
  • #199
  • Aug 6, 2009 9:13am Aug 6, 2009 9:13am
Hi again Tunji,
There is a point where the fibs interact with pricing we normally have a precuser to that.pivots/doji /support /resistance, which can also result in confluence.
The fib points gives us areas of price to watch and price action determines that action.
I am not very good on the fibs as I am never too sure which high/low to use and time frame.

Hopefully I can follow this thread and input some price action which I hope helps all.
Not wanting to sway the thread in any way please let me know if we do not want to use price action I will not be offended, I am here to learn more about fibs.
  • #200
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:24am Aug 6, 2009 10:24am
Quoting Gamma
Hi again Tunji,
There is a point where the fibs interact with pricing we normally have a precuser to that.pivots/doji /support /resistance, which can also result in confluence.
The fib points gives us areas of price to watch and price action determines that action.
I am not very good on the fibs as I am never too sure which high/low to use and time frame.

Hopefully I can follow this thread and input some price action which I hope helps all.
Not wanting to sway the thread in any way please let me know if we do not want to use price action I will...
Gamma, to avoid any misunderstanding, please explain, further, what you mean by price action; because swing highs/lows are results of price action, so, in that sense, we use price action.

If what you mean by price action is different, please clarify. Thanks.
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