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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #9,401
  • Aug 3, 2009 9:08pm Aug 3, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting luSan
I made some $ in stock today...but I cannot figure out what the heck is going on...the economy is in deep trouble...Master O has a huge deficit, the health insurance companies are at the edge of total destruction, the banks are in trouble..he is losing popularity, the consumers are not consuming...and the stock are raising!?..where the earnings coming from?......just the effect of dollar devaluation?

I keep tell myself:....'Man, you have not idea what PA will do in Forex...so get use to the fact that you have no idea what the DJ will...
Lusan,

Understand this is a traders market, not an investors market and look for those retirement investors that still have some in the market from their Retirement Funds/401k's to dump soon as fear of losing the remainder for their savings will not be allowed. US fig's are being pumped in an effort to maintain a not so bleak outlook... if all we heard was doom and gloom (reality) like the end of last year.... go figure.

A soft crash landing is trying to be engineered, the other scenario is flaming devastation. But there's no positive outlook while Unemployment hovers in double digits and tax hikes are expected.

It's no better in Euroland, but as the Dow soars so will commodities and the Greenbag will devalue as offbets like we saw in the run up prior to the crash, when commodity prices skyrocket with Dow and dollar falling, head for the hills

fwiw,
  • #9,402
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:19am Aug 4, 2009 12:19am
fti,
thanks again for the demo and reminders on how to work with the girls.
It gives me something to measure up to, I see immediately I need to loosen up a bit more .
  • #9,403
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:44am Aug 4, 2009 12:44am
Hey MaMood hope all is well.
Myself, Im mentally tired, not getting into anything to heavy.
Most off the table and just taking a ride and seeing how far we go on the e/u.
  • #9,404
  • Edited 4:29am Aug 4, 2009 4:12am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

Understand this is a traders market, not an investors market and look for those retirement investors that still have some in the market from their Retirement Funds/401k's to dump soon as fear of losing the remainder for their savings will not be allowed. US fig's are being pumped in an effort to maintain a not so bleak outlook... if all we heard was doom and gloom (reality) like the end of last year.... go figure.

A soft crash landing is trying to be engineered, the other scenario is flaming devastation. But there's no positive outlook...
Thanks for the comment. I will think about it..
No trading today...I will be on a business trip.
Happy fishing to all...watch out...this market went into total sleep.
maybe a nitemare is brewing.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,405
  • Aug 4, 2009 2:44pm Aug 4, 2009 2:44pm
Very busy trading day, but it looks like everyone was too busy to chat today. Hope you all traded well. I will assume you are all out spending the hard-earned pips you made yesterday.
  • #9,406
  • Aug 4, 2009 7:38pm Aug 4, 2009 7:38pm
Actually I have been finding it a bit disheartening trying to read this thread while trading. I tried to follow ( visually I mean, not with trades) Mr fti's moves on the Euro the day before and I don't seem to be jumping in and out anywhere near as quickly as that, so I don't know if I am doing something wrong

Apart from that I wanted to trade in the opposite direction so got rather confused and started to doubt myself.
  • #9,407
  • Aug 4, 2009 7:52pm Aug 4, 2009 7:52pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Actually I have been finding it a bit disheartening trying to read this thread while trading. I tried to follow ( visually I mean, not with trades) Mr fti's moves on the Euro the day before and I don't seem to be jumping in and out anywhere near as quickly as that, so I don't know if I am doing something wrong

Apart from that I wanted to trade in the opposite direction so got rather confused and started to doubt myself.
I don't know how long you have been trading, but give yourself about 25+ years in the markets and knowing currencies like the back of your hand.

Don't judge yourself in comparison to FTI, just be the best trader you can be now.
  • #9,408
  • Aug 4, 2009 8:17pm Aug 4, 2009 8:17pm
I wasn't really trying to compare myself with fti. I just found it disconcerting that what I have been doing is so completely different, when I have tried to study the thread and follow the basic MO.

On the other hand maybe it doesn't matter? As long as I don't try and rescue lost causes and don't try to overstay successful rescues and do try to press attacks when in a good position and stick to good MM and make a profit then I guess I should be happy enough.

Sometimes my self doubt is very annoying and other times I think it may save me from becoming complacent. I just can't decide if I have any clue of what I am doing. Half of me thinks I have made good progress over the last few months and the other half of me thinks I could just have been lucky, as 4 months is not a long time to be profitable. It could either be as fti said recently, and the simplicity of the method is what can trip you up, or it could be that I have completely missed the real substance of the thread....sorry to ramble on but it's driving me a little bit mad.
  • #9,409
  • Edited 11:29pm Aug 4, 2009 8:58pm | Edited 11:29pm
e/u feels like she wants to climb above 4415.

jurys out on direction, I dont even know which way to send the scout !
  • #9,410
  • Aug 4, 2009 9:19pm Aug 4, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting lilpip
e/u feels like she wants to climb above 4415.
Yes, I get the same feeling. I am just trading the range at the moment. Going short whenever price is above 1.4400 Maybe there will not be any big movement until Non Farm Employment Change during the NY session. Ray
  • #9,411
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:40pm Aug 4, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting 1234
Yes, I get the same feeling. I am just trading the range at the moment. Going short whenever price is above 1.4400 Maybe there will not be any big movement until Non Farm Employment Change during the NY session. Ray
I wouldnt count on selling everytime above 1.4400 at this point in time.
As far as movement mm for at least 100-120 against ya.

My mm today takes me to 14460 area and 14500 if on the wrong side.
If she goes much beyond that I have some decisions to make.
  • #9,412
  • Aug 5, 2009 12:15am Aug 5, 2009 12:15am
All squared 1.4396 I will wait and see what the Europe guys are going to do at the opening. Ray
  • #9,413
  • Aug 5, 2009 12:38am Aug 5, 2009 12:38am
Halifax HPI at 1pm, if there are any other fools messing around with cable today.
  • #9,414
  • Edited 1:16am Aug 5, 2009 12:47am | Edited 1:16am
Hi Friends!

Have you all polished your dancing shoes for some nice promenades?
I wish you all a successful trading day!

Stay nimble and do not try to CrystalBall future market moves!

CU,
MaMood

p.s.: I'm dancing USDJPY with shlightly short bias for the time being ...

p.p.s.: Shut off your brains and wonderful working minds - just feel the market! Yes, it is just that easy ;-)

p.p.p.s.: To get in tune with my USDJPY Lady i start with a very cautious exposure like this one 1,1,1,1,1. After I feel that I'm very close to her rythm - mostly after one hour - I change my levels to 1,3,5,8,13. After I have made some relevant foreign capital this way (1 to 3% of my account size) I accellerate to the following levels: 1,5,13,21
But at no time I'm going against the recent momentum. And I skip levels only, when my lady gives the required speed to try a "somersault long jump". And I'm always prepared for "back salto", if she is asking for .....
  • #9,415
  • Aug 5, 2009 3:28am Aug 5, 2009 3:28am
Quoting luSan
I made some $ in stock today...but I cannot figure out what the heck is going on...the economy is in deep trouble...Master O has a huge deficit, the health insurance companies are at the edge of total destruction, the banks are in trouble..he is losing popularity, the consumers are not consuming...and the stock are raising!?..where the earnings coming from?......just the effect of dollar devaluation?
"
Lusan, the market is always right.
  • #9,416
  • Aug 5, 2009 3:59am Aug 5, 2009 3:59am
Quoting Zoran
Lusan, the market is always right.
absolutely.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #9,417
  • Aug 5, 2009 4:13am Aug 5, 2009 4:13am
Quoting luSan
I made some $ in stock today...but I cannot figure out what the heck is going on...the economy is in deep trouble...Master O has a huge deficit, the health insurance companies are at the edge of total destruction, the banks are in trouble..he is losing popularity, the consumers are not consuming...and the stock are raising!?..where the earnings coming from?......just the effect of dollar devaluation?

I keep tell myself:....'Man, you have not idea what PA will do in Forex...so get use to the fact that you have no idea what the DJ will...
Hi, Lusan:

When DJIA was approaching 6000 points, I told you and feb2865 that it was a good time to buy stocks for long term investment (I suggested bank of America and City group). But none of you agreed with me, saying it was too risky. Now DJIA is even beyond my most bold estimate of 9k.

The truth is the markets tend to overshoot due to short-sighted and irrational panic and speculation.

Acutually before you know the present bad consumption, huge deficit, economic trouble etc., the market already knew that very well and discounted already.

US is still the sole superpower in the world, and she has the most advanced technology, militery force, most efficient ecnomic and political system, most culture (think about coca cola and hollywood) influence. The industrial productivity, hi-tech creativity, tangible and intangible assets accumulated for several hundred years in US are still there, not gone like bubbles created by the greedy Wall street people.

It takes time, 2 years or max. 5years to recover. But the market will discount that recovery about 6 months before it accully happens.

Wish I helped you.

David
  • #9,418
  • Edited 4:45am Aug 5, 2009 4:15am | Edited 4:45am
Some Entertainment ...

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  • #9,419
  • Aug 5, 2009 5:36am Aug 5, 2009 5:36am
fell asleep on my desk
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #9,420
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:48am Aug 5, 2009 6:48am
Waiting for some action too.
Perhaps the ADP Figs in 27 minutes have the potential to move the market a little ....
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