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  • #21
  • Jul 30, 2009 8:43am Jul 30, 2009 8:43am
this is why i say we should be looking at some sort of breakout buffer. I know it works both ways. if you use buffer then there would be days when you would miss the tp by 1 pip. but just my 2 cents
  • #22
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:03pm Jul 30, 2009 1:03pm
ONE point that was a nasty day for the demo account,

Danny
  • #23
  • Jul 30, 2009 2:22pm Jul 30, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting jtmoore007
this is why i say we should be looking at some sort of breakout buffer. I know it works both ways. if you use buffer then there would be days when you would miss the tp by 1 pip. but just my 2 cents
Yep, or days when, if the buffer is 10-pips, the breakout is by 11 for a "bad" entry anyway. In the end, it all evens out. In breakout systems like this, there will always be entries that just barely "broke out" and reversed... We can analyze them all day, but there's no magic bullet to stop them.

Another lesson I've learned in several years of forward-testing systems before going live with them, is to not tweak them to death. Puts you in an endless cycle of optimization, and you never end up with the "perfect" system in the end (and never get enough data on any single "version" to know if it truly is performing well). I'm a believer in defining a working set of parameters, and if they look reasonable on a visual back test, trading them in demo to see if they're viable. Each of the three systems I trade in my live accounts was developed/tested this way. The very first one was one that I spent about 3-months "tweaking" every other day until I finally said enough is enough. If I didn't just let it run for 6-months after that day, I may still be tweaking it today. Instead, it's pulling in a solid 5% per month in a live account for a little over a year now.

I'm not at all suggesting that you're implying we change things every time something like this happens - but rather explaining my reasoning for just sticking with what I have to see if it is viable short-term before moving on to long-term.

In 3-months, if it's failing and there seems to be a "tweak" that might improve things - I'll tweak. If it's failing irreparably, I'll dump it. If it's gaining close to my "magic" 5% threshold, I'll run it for another 3-months in demo before I open a live account for it.
  • #24
  • Jul 30, 2009 3:09pm Jul 30, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting cgrey
Yep, or days when, if the buffer is 10-pips, the breakout is by 11 for a "bad" entry anyway. In the end, it all evens out. In breakout systems like this, there will always be entries that just barely "broke out" and reversed... We can analyze them all day, but there's no magic bullet to stop them.

Another lesson I've learned in several years of forward-testing systems before going live with them, is to not tweak them to death. Puts you in an endless cycle of optimization, and you never end up with the "perfect" system in the end (and never...

yep with you 100% everyone on here always wants to add this indi and that ma.

that is why i say the buffer is one of those damned if you do, damned if you don't things. so really makes no difference anyway.

keep it simple!
  • #25
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:15am Jul 31, 2009 6:15am
Looks like there was a glitch with my EA last night. No trade was opened. In reviewing the charts, the likely reason was that there was only a very slight breach of the high trigger (again, less than a full pip, like yesterday) before the close of the 02:00GMT candle. If this was a fast enough spike, the order may not have triggered. I've double-checked the code, and I have no error logs, so my assumption at this time, is that this is indeed what happened.

Having said that, this was a breach, and a trade SHOULD have opened. Had it, we would already be beyond the +50 point for the day, which means today would have been, at worst, a "break even" day.

This ends the month of July. With the start of August, we'll have our first full month of testing, again, with our primary goal being reaching a 5% increase on the starting account balance, which will be $929.46.

Account Status
Starting Balance: $942.71
Today's P/L: -$0 (0%)
Current Balance: $929.46 (-1.41%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #26
  • Aug 3, 2009 8:06am Aug 3, 2009 8:06am
The month starts with a loss...

Though, I obviously have some work to do on my EA. Again, this trade did not open - there was a requote which I wasn't handling in my code. Would have been a 2% (roughly) loss, though, since price reversed and took out the 100-pip SL after opening.

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: $0 (0%)
 Current Balance: $929.46 (0%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #27
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:58am Aug 4, 2009 5:58am
Another loss, but at least this time my EA worked This journal very well may be becoming a lesson on why forward testing is so important - we'll see in a couple of months...

Entry (long) at 137.36
Lots: 0.18
Stop hit (both halves closed) at 136.32

Summary:
Breakout of the high of the 23:00GMT candle occurred at 01:33GMT. With the very next candle, there was a reversal and downward move, which eventually took out the 100-pip stop at 08:42GMT.

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: -$19.88 (-2.14%)
Current Balance: $909.58 (-2.14%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #28
  • Aug 4, 2009 2:27pm Aug 4, 2009 2:27pm
Thanks cgrey for your post's.. its hard to keep it up after a few bad days, as you say forward testing is an eye opener.

Danny
  • #29
  • Aug 4, 2009 7:40pm Aug 4, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting rebelheart
Thanks cgrey for your post's.. its hard to keep it up after a few bad days, as you say forward testing is an eye opener.

Danny
It's a little easier when it's only a demo account
  • #30
  • Aug 4, 2009 7:56pm Aug 4, 2009 7:56pm
Thanks Cgrey for your effort. Very interesting and simple system, I will have a try manually tomorrow.

I notice you didn't add any buffer even on your long order, don't you think that at least 3 or 4 pips spreads needed to add on the orders?

Thanks.

Wonderful
  • #31
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:31am Aug 5, 2009 6:31am
Quoting wonderful
Thanks Cgrey for your effort. Very interesting and simple system, I will have a try manually tomorrow.

I notice you didn't add any buffer even on your long order, don't you think that at least 3 or 4 pips spreads needed to add on the orders?

Thanks.

Wonderful
Hi,

I addressed the question about a "buffer" in this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=23

That said, feel free to drop in on the "system" thread (linked from the first post in this thread) to further discuss the system itself. In this thread, I'm simply posting my results trading a variation of the system which was originally posted there.
  • #32
  • Aug 5, 2009 6:50am Aug 5, 2009 6:50am
No trade today.

Breakout did not occur before the end of the 02:00GMT candle.

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: $0 (0%)
Current Balance: $909.58 (-2.14%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #33
  • Aug 6, 2009 10:06am Aug 6, 2009 10:06am
First winner of the month.

Entry (long) at 136.96
Lots: 0.18
First half closed at 137.47(+$4.74)
Second half closed at 136.94 (-$0.23)

Summary:
Breakout of the high of the 00:00GMT candle occurred at 01:04GMT. Initial stop was set at 100-pips. +50 (0.50%) was taken out at 08:24GMT, half was closed and the 100-pip trailing stop kicked in. Climbed to a high of 137.94 (just a couple of pips short of the 100-pip target). After which, price reversed and came back down, and closed when the 100-pip trailing stop was hit at 136.94.

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: +$4.51 (+0.49%)
Current Balance: $914.09 (-1.65%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #34
  • Aug 7, 2009 7:44am Aug 7, 2009 7:44am
News killed us today.

Entry (short) at 136.96
Lots: 0.18
Stop hit (both halves closed) at 138.01

Summary:
Breakout of the low of the 00:00GMT candle occurred at 01:45GMT. Initial stop was set at 100-pips. Over the next few hours, price moved in our direction, and came close to hitting our first target (came within about 4-5 pips). Reversed after that, and with some news announcements, shot up against us and hit the 100-pip SL for a loss.

We'll see what next week brings...

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: -$19.73 (-2.16%)
Current Balance: $894.36 (-3.78%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #35
  • Aug 7, 2009 8:23am Aug 7, 2009 8:23am
Quoting cgrey
News killed us today.

Entry (short) at 136.96
Lots: 0.18
Stop hit (both halves closed) at 138.01

Summary:
Breakout of the low of the 00:00GMT candle occurred at 01:45GMT. Initial stop was set at 100-pips. Over the next few hours, price moved in our direction, and came close to hitting our first target (came within about 4-5 pips). Reversed after that, and with some news announcements, shot up against us and hit the 100-pip SL for a loss.

We'll see what next week brings...

Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
[color=red][b]Today's...
Moral of the story - STAY AWAY FROM MAJOR NEWS EVENTS!!! lol
If i were trading this live, def stay away from major news such as today, as im sure you would too. i always close my ea's on big news days. much rather not make any money as to loose a ton!!!
  • #36
  • Aug 8, 2009 7:34am Aug 8, 2009 7:34am
Quoting jtmoore007
Moral of the story - STAY AWAY FROM MAJOR NEWS EVENTS!!! lol
If i were trading this live, def stay away from major news such as today, as im sure you would too. i always close my ea's on big news days. much rather not make any money as to loose a ton!!!
I've never closed any of my live EAs on news days. Another one of those things that even out - actually, usually work out to my advantage, since my reward is always greater than my risk. In my live accounts, my MM is similar to what I'm doing here - there's a pre-defined stop out which would never result in more than a 2% loss on any one trade and a pre-defined take profit (which is generally around 5-6%), but usually, the close ends up somewhere between the two. Yesterday, for example, one of my live accounts did have a trade open, and it did lose (resulting in a little over a 2% loss). In June on NFP Friday, I had two trades open in two accounts, and both caught the positive side and each closed with nearly a 5% gain. If there is a big "spike" due to news that results in hitting either my SL or TP, the TP will always result in a bigger gain than the SL would in a loss.

As long as there are stops in place (which, is a totally separate topic for me - I NEVER enter a TP or SL value as part of my order, but rather "hide" it in my EAs) and the EA is coded to ensure a fast spike doesn't go right past the stop without closing, it's no different than any other trade.

This subject did get me thinking, though... While typing this, I went back through my entire trading history on my live accouns. Since my very first 'live" trade, I've had a total of 19 trades that were closed as a result of a "news" event on NFP Friday. 11 were losers for -2%. The 8 winners all were +5% or greater. One was +8%. Even though the losers outnumbered the winners, the $ won was nearly double the $ lost. This doesn't include any news events that weren't NFP Fridays - it would be too much of a project for me to identify all of those. I can pick out NFP Friday trades fairly easily in my records.
  • #37
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:02am Aug 10, 2009 10:02am
Rather boring day today...

Entry (short) at 137.89
Lots: 0.17
Closed at 15:00GMT at 137.91

Summary:
Breakout of the low of the 00:00GMT candle occurred at 01:08GMT. Initial stop was set at 100-pips. Price remained mostly range-bound for the next 14-hours, never really testing our first target or the initial SL. At 15:00GMT, trade was closed for a very slight loss.


Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: -$0.35 (-0.04%)
Current Balance: $894.01 (-3.81%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #38
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:08am Aug 11, 2009 10:08am
Winner today

Entry (short) at 136.86
Lots: 0.17
First half closed at 136.38(+$3.94)
Second half closed at 135.60 (+$11.73)

Summary:
Breakout of the low of the 23:00GMT candle occurred at 02:36GMT. Initial stop was set at 100-pips. Price was range-bound for a while, but then made a move in our favor beginning with the 12:00GMT candle. At 12:59GMT, the +50 target was hit - half was closed, and the 100-pip trail kicked in. During the 14:00GMT candle, the +100 target was hit, and the stop was changed to a 50-pip trail (50 was closer than the high of the previous candle). Finally, at 15:00GMT, the order was closed at 135.60, resulting in a total gain of $15.67 (or 1.75%) for the day.


Account Status
Starting Balance: $929.46
Today's P/L: +$15.67 (+1.75%)
Current Balance: $909.68 (-2.13%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #39
  • Aug 11, 2009 2:30pm Aug 11, 2009 2:30pm
nice job of keeping up with this journal. im having ea made for this as we speak. a few changes will let you know changes and results

good trades to you!
  • #40
  • Aug 11, 2009 2:48pm Aug 11, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting jtmoore007
nice job of keeping up with this journal. im having ea made for this as we speak. a few changes will let you know changes and results

good trades to you!
Good luck to you as well... I love the "set and forget" type of systems, when they work out...

You may want to discuss changes in the original "system" thread. I don't know if anyone is still following it (haven't seen any activity there for a while), but it could help the originator of the system to further develop it.
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