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Silent Service Method

  • #4,261
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:50am Aug 3, 2009 11:50am
Low
The way I choose on multiple trades is on how much risk is out. So for example there are 4 trades out 1 is in profit 3 are losing. The one in profit is up 3% with 1% locked, but the risk on the others is a possible 1.5% loss but not stopped. Now if the market didnt fool me then they will turn around to a small profit or run. I do not count trades just how much money is out. Thinking like this helps me separate the account from my emmotions.
  • #4,262
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:54am Aug 3, 2009 11:54am
I'm a complete beginner at this but i read the Dr Elder Books and he recommends the 6% rule for open trades. Basically sum up everything that is at risk at the moment you want to trade and if it is more than 6% of your total capital, you cannot trade. He counts open trades with stops placed at break even as not part of the 6%.

Others may have different views so it would be interesting to hear from them.

Coop

PS. The Pring Book is great, i recommend it for beginners who like things spelled out for them!
  • #4,263
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:02pm Aug 3, 2009 12:02pm
Hi Low.

You answered yourself below. It can be simply a percentage total of your account you like to have on the table but you can mix it with the feeling that some trades are right on the way and put on some more. Either way you have to feel comfort with all your open positions same as with a particular position out of them. And never forget http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3654 if you count your profits. For me the risk of hedging instruments without intention increases also with the number of open positions.

Quoting Low
So basically, I found my saturation point for risk, and needed to reduce risk before I could even look at another chart. This does not mean I'm looking to get into another trade today or tomorrow, or whenever, just that I felt like I had too much on my plate, and wasn't sure I wanted to eat it all.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #4,264
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:04pm Aug 3, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting Coopster
I'm a complete beginner at this but i read the Dr Elder Books and he recommends the 6% rule for open trades. Basically sum up everything that is at risk at the moment you want to trade and if it is more than 6% of your total capital, you cannot trade. He counts open trades with stops placed at break even as not part of the 6%.

Others may have different views so it would be interesting to hear from them.

Coop

PS. The Pring Book is great, i recommend it for beginners who like things spelled out for them!

For me the total is 5%.......I agree with any trade that has s/l at b/e - I don't count. In all practicality, I rarely actually have more than a total of 3% at one moment though.
  • #4,265
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:06pm Aug 3, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting Low
I have a question for Chris or anyone else who feels like answering. Do you have any rules regarding a maximum number of open trades?

To clarify, last week I ended up taking three trades, as this new week opened, I was uncomfortable contemplating new opportunities, since one was in profit, one was at a loss, and one was just in between. If they had all been in profit, and I felt confident I could move my stops to BE without risking premature closure, then I would do so and go looking for new trades, but since two were questionable, I didn't even...
In my opinion, it comes down to your comfort. Once you closed out the losing position - if you find another trade, go for it. However, don't go out of your way to find it. Either it's there or it isn't.

The fact you didn't open new trades just shows that you are in tune with your comfort level, and that's a really, really good thing.

Chris
  • #4,266
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:15pm Aug 3, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting Coopster
I'm a complete beginner at this but i read the Dr Elder Books and he recommends the 6% rule for open trades.
Thanks coop, I think I like this idea, but maybe with a lower percentage.
  • #4,267
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:18pm Aug 3, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting Coopster
I'm a complete beginner at this but i read the Dr Elder Books and he recommends the 6% rule for open trades. Basically sum up everything that is at risk at the moment you want to trade and if it is more than 6% of your total capital, you cannot trade. He counts open trades with stops placed at break even as not part of the 6%.
For me each trade is a single opportunity and I don't have a total risk limit. But if I would have such I would not be as rigid as with the other rules. When I find an A++ setup I would not care about exceeding a total risk amount.

One thing you also must never forget is to think in probabilites and once you stay out from trades because you have reached your limit then you override the laws of probability because regarding your method this one could be the next winner in the series.

Just my 2 pips.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #4,268
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:47pm Aug 3, 2009 12:47pm
I mentioned earlier about GbpUsd looking interesting around Weekly R1...

Here's a chart of the day, I was working today so had to put a buy stop just above the first pin that formed above WR1.

The trade entered on the first big push up, moved around a little at Daily R2 then carried on up, met resistance at Weekly R2 and closed below Monthly R1. Coincidence?

I took 80 pips from that little move as I used a 40 pip stop loss and a 1:2 r/r put me somewhere near Monthly R1 anyway which I felt comfortable with.

Notice the morning range breakout was nothing to write home about, no clear trend before, nothing special after.

Chris, do you think you could squeeze some room on the site for discussion of trading of this kind?

Everyone else, are you interested in hearing about this? Tell me to shut up if you'd rather
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  • #4,269
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:58pm Aug 3, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting hel13rock
I mentioned earlier about GbpUsd looking interesting around Weekly R1...

Here's a chart of the day, I was working today so had to put a buy stop just above the first pin that formed above WR1.

The trade entered on the first big push up, moved around a little at Daily R2 then carried on up, met resistance at Weekly R2 and closed below Monthly R1. Coincidence?

I took 80 pips from that little move as I used a 40 pip stop loss and a 1:2 r/r put me somewhere near Monthly R1 anyway which I felt comfortable with.

Notice the morning range breakout...
Yes of course.....no problem. I welcome any and all ideas!

Chris
  • #4,270
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:05pm Aug 3, 2009 1:05pm
The way I see it is that it's just support and resistance done a different way. I've always had a feeling that pivot points were used but I've never noticed them act so clearly as on GbpUsd recently.

The best bit is that these trades are in keeping with your philosophy if not your main method. You wait for the right conditions to present themselves, no matter how long it takes, you stalk the pair you're trading waiting for the best shot and then BAM, you pull the trigger.

I like the way you can get a good r/r too. I think I'll take a few more of these trades and track my results, see where it goes.
  • #4,271
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:25pm Aug 3, 2009 3:25pm
I, along with a few others here, am in the GBPCHF short trade of last week's first H4 bear PB. I have two observations/questions:

1. Stop placement - I'm a firm believer of hiding stops behind S/R and round numbers, so on this trade my stop is at 1.8043 above the PB and the 1.80. However, would you consider the 1.8050 level a round enough number to warrant increasing your stop size to hide your stop behind?

Also, just looking at S/R fora minute, the stop loss would be safer if hidden behind recent bar highs. However, the only recent bar highs are from June 24/26 and would almost double the stop size (and thereby half the position size). Thus far, price has respected the resistance at the top of the PB, but would you have considered reducing your position size to hide your stop behind the June bar highs?

2. Thinking about price action psychology for a moment, we had a nice PB off a solid weekly PPZ and 50% fib ret to reverse the daily up trend and get us back into the weekly down trend. After some fannying around in the Asian session and a fairly interesting retrace, the PB broke down hard. Price hesitated at the first minor area of S/R and 23.6 fib (first blue area) and then broke through only to hit the next blue S/R area and 38.2 fib and retrace North. It retraced with such force that it just breached the top of the bearish PB. Price was met with a load of sell orders around that area and moved down only to hit the first blue S/R area again to close out today's session just below the bear PB.

Looking at what has happened it appears to me that there is too much buying pressure between the two blue S/R areas for price to drop below them. As a result price is starting to form a 4 hour wedge moving up with the daily trend and a series of bar highs (5 so far) in line with the top of the bear PB. This, to me, smells like a bullish sign rather than a bearish one.

Also, FWIW, GBP is showing strength against USD, JPY, EUR and CAD.

Given all of this information, do you think we are destined for a failure of the PB?

Simon
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  • #4,272
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:35pm Aug 3, 2009 3:35pm
Well I've just taken a look at the daily and there's no trade there for me. It's inbetween 1.75 and 1.81 and will most likely hit 1.81 before retracing is my guess but as we know, trading between zones is just that, guessing.

Don't take this wrong but you're thinking far too hard about it. If it was a good trade it would be obvious and we'd all be in it. Your analysis gives as many reasons to go long as to go short!

Something you may want to consider though is that usdchf shows signs of breaking support at 1.06 = chf strength. Gbpusd is at 1.7 resistance meaning it could be about to retrace = gbp weakness.

Chf strength + gbp weakness = Gbpchf Weakness

This isn't set in stone of course but I'm sitting this out anyway
  • #4,273
  • Edited 6:41pm Aug 3, 2009 3:55pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting hel13rock
The way I see it is that it's just support and resistance done a different way. I've always had a feeling that pivot points were used but I've never noticed them act so clearly as on GbpUsd recently.

The best bit is that these trades are in keeping with your philosophy if not your main method. You wait for the right conditions to present themselves, no matter how long it takes, you stalk the pair you're trading waiting for the best shot and then BAM, you pull the trigger.

I like the way you can get a good r/r too. I think I'll take a few...
hel13rock,

Thanks, this is something I'll explore as well, esp on the Yen pairs - my preferred currency to trade. I too like to trade smaller TFs (the 30min in particular) from time-to-time and in conjunction with the Silent Service Method. I don't think pivots would really distract from this method, if they're used as an indicator, like the fibs and trendlines already are. So I'd vote to see whatever you got, including the 15min and a request to zoom-out to higher TFs that include them.

I used Daily/Weekly pivots in the distant past but stopped b/c they seemed too abstract to be reliable. Albeit those were the days I was hawking at the 5 and 15min charts, with nary a thought to much else besides Bollingers and Heiken-Ashi candles So I didn't have the discipline or care to understand how I might profit from them. Now that things have changed, what's stayed around for me are the fibs, trendlines and PA of course.

B-t-w the 1.67 level on the G/U is a higher TF fib area and a major zone I think; to highlight a complement of the indicators and method herein
  • #4,274
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:31pm Aug 3, 2009 5:31pm
Eurgbp
Taking this one tonight.
Touching TL and FIB 61.8
Moving to BE @8570
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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #4,275
  • Aug 3, 2009 8:13pm Aug 3, 2009 8:13pm
Something I am watching at the moment.....

TGT (Target)
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  • #4,276
  • Aug 3, 2009 8:34pm Aug 3, 2009 8:34pm
Hey eswap0.....

I hope you lose (I mean that in a nice way).

(Or that I get a retracement and some nice PA to add to my position)

http://i29.tinypic.com/20hrldu.png
  • #4,277
  • Aug 3, 2009 9:19pm Aug 3, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting Low
Hey eswap0.....

I hope you lose (I mean that in a nice way).
What you meant to say is "I hope your loss is only a break-even trade".
  • #4,278
  • Edited 11:54pm Aug 3, 2009 9:42pm | Edited 11:54pm
Hey hel13rock,

I tried the pivots on the G/U, using the swing high/low from my fib plot ... maybe that's too simplistic for what you're talking about? So I went ahead, plotted them anyway and it lends clarity to some of the price action methinks. Again, I'm not sure the pivs are made to order (as you might see it) but that's a start which interests me.

I marked the midpoint/R1 green, b/c they're technically support levels now; the red R1 mid-point as the next resistance level. The blue vertical trendlines mark the time-space the plot used to calculate the pivot points. And the 1H chart is for kicks ... and I won't talk about that c-word ("confluence") for now. So, any and all feedback welcome!

(Pardon the dim contrast charts. Next time I'll use solid lines and brighter colors. Hope y'all can make out the charts well enough for now; I don't feel like going back and doing all that again!)

Aaron
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  • #4,279
  • Aug 3, 2009 10:49pm Aug 3, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting clockwork71
What you meant to say is "I hope your loss is only a break-even trade".
My bad...I was trying to be funny, thanks for the reminder CW.

Apologies to eswap0.
  • #4,280
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:54pm Aug 3, 2009 11:54pm
Quoting Soca
Hey hel13rock,

I tried the pivots on the G/U, using the swing high/low from my fib plot ... maybe that's too simplistic for what you're talking about? So I went ahead, plotted them anyway and it lends clarity to some of the price action methinks. Again, I'm not sure the pivs are made to order (as you might see it) but that's a start which interests me.

I marked the midpoint/R1 green b/c they're technically support levels now; the red R1 mid-point as the next resistance level, according to my calc.. The blue vertical trendlines mark the...
I use an auto pivot indicator for mt4 which draws the same lines as a pivot calculator would give me and I find it really uncanny how closely they are being followed on GbpUsd at the moment.

I never look for a trade, I have the chart open for the GbpUsd breakout method and stumble upon these set ups... Price bouncing off weekly pivots amd when it breaks through it reaches the next one.

Whether this is going to continue to hold or not is another matter but I'm sufficiently interested to spend some time watching.

My longer term view on GbpUsd and GbpJpy are that they have both met resistance and will possibly (probably?) retrace to their respective next support lines and then reverse to push upwards to new highs.

Whatever I do I'll be waiting for only the very best price action to tell me what's happening and trading accordingly. I don't know why but I can actually feel myself developing as a trader.
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