In light of recent discussions about suing everyone and anyone I felt I should just mention that the purpose of this thread is amateur speculation only and does not constitute advice or trade recommendations or any kind of training/education. Should you decide to follow and take any of the trades posted here it I will not be responsible for your failure or any losses you may incur in any way whether financial, emotional, real, or imagined. Should wish to trade forex (or any other market) you should ensure that you are properly trained and qualified to do so. Reading a forum on a website will not prepare you for trading.
CFTC RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT:
NOTICE: "HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
March 2010 Update: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1000
Trend Trading Chart Thread
After dabbling in Technical Analysis for about 5 years now I have come to the conclusion that the trend really is your best friend. I have tried various different styles of trading but for me simple trend trading has been the most profitable and least stressful.
I use only the most basic technical analysis tools: trendlines, support & resistance, round numbers and the fib retracement tool.
So here it is. I probably started this thread at a bad time considering most currency pairs are in congestion but the trend will return and meanwhile perhaps we should have a look at other markets…
Brief Strategy Overview
Zoom your chart out to about 300 bars. If the chart is going up then we are in an uptrend. If the chart is going down… you guessed it… downtrend. My only addition to this would be that I also take into account higher highs and lower lows in determining the trend and also watch out for the break of the major trendlines that could signify a change of trend.
We are always looking for a discount to enter.
Let’s assume we are in a downtrend. We wait for price to start retracing back up and use trendlines and the 50% fib retracement level to guide us to our entry point. We also use round numbers (i.e. .XX00 or .XX50).
Once we are in a trade simply place a trailing stop loss (currently using 100 pips on E/U and G/U… other currencies/markets will vary) and let the market take you out.
I have attached a chart that might help illustrate.
One more thing… in the past some traders have used a hedging strategy to try and offset the balance of a loosing trade. We don’t do that… in fact Jacko has developed his own “anti-hedging strategy” to help deal with loosing trades. The strategy is very simple and genius… if your stop gets taken out (you are at -100 pips) you wait for price to move at least another 50 pips from where you were taken out. You then place another trade (in the same direction as the original order) in the place you were taken out.
For example… you went long at 1.3500 (stop loss is 1.3400), things go bad and you get taken out at 1.3400 for a 100 pip loss. Now you wait… once price moves to say 1.3350 you place another long at 1.3400. Let the market pick your order back up in the direction of the trend and with a bit of luck and a pinch of salt you should recover your losses and maybe turn a profit! Note that you must be trading in the direction of the trend for this to work properly.
And by the way… there are no guarantees. You could get taken out a second time for a loss! If you do, take a 24 hour break from trading and then re-evaluate the situation before placing anymore trades.
Charts & Trade Ideas
So without further ado let’s post some charts and trade ideas. Any currency, any market… if you see a potential trade or just want to post some thoughts please feel free to do so. My ambition for this thread is to create another little Forex Factory mini-family/band of traders who can help each other out with thoughts, ideas and constructive criticism… kind of like the nice chaps over at the J16 thread do!
Let’s get started.
Regards,
Dan
CFTC RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT:
NOTICE: "HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
March 2010 Update: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1000
Trend Trading Chart Thread
After dabbling in Technical Analysis for about 5 years now I have come to the conclusion that the trend really is your best friend. I have tried various different styles of trading but for me simple trend trading has been the most profitable and least stressful.
I use only the most basic technical analysis tools: trendlines, support & resistance, round numbers and the fib retracement tool.
So here it is. I probably started this thread at a bad time considering most currency pairs are in congestion but the trend will return and meanwhile perhaps we should have a look at other markets…
Brief Strategy Overview
Zoom your chart out to about 300 bars. If the chart is going up then we are in an uptrend. If the chart is going down… you guessed it… downtrend. My only addition to this would be that I also take into account higher highs and lower lows in determining the trend and also watch out for the break of the major trendlines that could signify a change of trend.
We are always looking for a discount to enter.
Let’s assume we are in a downtrend. We wait for price to start retracing back up and use trendlines and the 50% fib retracement level to guide us to our entry point. We also use round numbers (i.e. .XX00 or .XX50).
Once we are in a trade simply place a trailing stop loss (currently using 100 pips on E/U and G/U… other currencies/markets will vary) and let the market take you out.
I have attached a chart that might help illustrate.
One more thing… in the past some traders have used a hedging strategy to try and offset the balance of a loosing trade. We don’t do that… in fact Jacko has developed his own “anti-hedging strategy” to help deal with loosing trades. The strategy is very simple and genius… if your stop gets taken out (you are at -100 pips) you wait for price to move at least another 50 pips from where you were taken out. You then place another trade (in the same direction as the original order) in the place you were taken out.
For example… you went long at 1.3500 (stop loss is 1.3400), things go bad and you get taken out at 1.3400 for a 100 pip loss. Now you wait… once price moves to say 1.3350 you place another long at 1.3400. Let the market pick your order back up in the direction of the trend and with a bit of luck and a pinch of salt you should recover your losses and maybe turn a profit! Note that you must be trading in the direction of the trend for this to work properly.
And by the way… there are no guarantees. You could get taken out a second time for a loss! If you do, take a 24 hour break from trading and then re-evaluate the situation before placing anymore trades.
Charts & Trade Ideas
So without further ado let’s post some charts and trade ideas. Any currency, any market… if you see a potential trade or just want to post some thoughts please feel free to do so. My ambition for this thread is to create another little Forex Factory mini-family/band of traders who can help each other out with thoughts, ideas and constructive criticism… kind of like the nice chaps over at the J16 thread do!
Let’s get started.
Regards,
Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Hopefully.