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Silent Service Method

  • #4,241
  • Aug 2, 2009 4:10pm Aug 2, 2009 4:10pm
seems like everybody shorting gbpchf except me
i'm still holding my long on this pair with some profit locked under minor s/r level which is under 1.77 level...its been 3 weeks now since i got in this trade...
although 1.80 level looks solid s/r level i don't feel i've been given any good reason to short this pair or close my long yet...
and to be honest probably i would have shorted this pair if i traded based on 4hr...
  • #4,242
  • Aug 2, 2009 4:35pm Aug 2, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting nomask
seems like everybody shorting gbpchf except me
i'm still holding my long on this pair with some profit locked under minor s/r level which is under 1.77 level...its been 3 weeks now since i got in this trade...
although 1.80 level looks solid s/r level i don't feel i've been given any good reason to short this pair or close my long yet...
and to be honest probably i would have shorted this pair if i traded based on 4hr...

Actually, this proves a point about trading that most people miss. Let's assume that me and a few people here short GBP.CHF and start making money. You are still long, and have your stops in place.

It is possible for both groups to be correct. Think of this: You say gain.....250 pips. My group of people short and eventually gain 200 pips. Who was wrong? Nobody.

You have you stops in place, and although you may think 1.80 will hold.....you should let the market prove you right or wrong. You have drawn a line in the sand where you are no longer willing to be in the trade, and placed your stop there.

This is the essence of trading.

Chris

PS - again, congrats on the trade.
  • #4,243
  • Aug 2, 2009 5:37pm Aug 2, 2009 5:37pm
Im looking for the UJ to take a drop, this is the weekly, the trend is down, and we have a doji at the end of a small bull run right at my SR zone. I could be jumping the gun on this one but 1/2% is worth the risk to me.
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  • #4,244
  • Edited 7:52pm Aug 2, 2009 7:30pm | Edited 7:52pm
Hi Danku
I’m also in this trade, went to 30 pips profit and I thought it would go further…that could have been a mistake. However, I still think it will reverse.
Look at my cadjpy daily chart, double top is a price pattern formed when PA cannot make a higher high from peak to peak. It’s forming right at a major Resistance level, there is a nice probability of a reversal here. Also the second part of the double top is slightly lower than the first.

It made a lower low on it's last swing low (compared to the previous 4 higher lows and higher highs)…another sign of the end of the uptrend.

So, the cadjpy has already made a lower low and has possibly failed to make a higher high…a possible change in sentiment.
Peter

EDIT:
Just noticed today is a Canadian public holiday, so we may need to just sit there for another day.
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  • #4,245
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:27pm Aug 2, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
I wait for a close lower. These are a little different, because they are such tight stops. I feel perfectly comfortable on the close lower.....I don't have an example at the moment, but I will post one when I come across it, I promise.

Chris

Thanks CW. I just got hit for a .9% loss on a NZD/USD Trade. Entry at break of ledge on 7/30/09 on the daily chart. Figured primary trend is bearish, break of ledge and faced mad resistance at the top of rectangle pattern. bullish channel based on weekly/monthly charts, but price near the top, reacting to another resistance point. I thought this was a pretty good trade. Price was dueling with a minor level when I got in, perhaps that was my downfall. Fundamentally I thought with the markets bullish and the recent news on oil would make commodities a short term bust; but the NZD did not reflect that this time around (tifwiw, new trader here).

Do you mind giving me your thoughts, critique?? Just trying to learn more.

Your the man, thanks.
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  • #4,246
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:44pm Aug 2, 2009 8:44pm
One thing I read about fib levels is that they are violated normally at the break of the 61.8 level. It looked like a good entry from the fib point of view. Just my opinion.
  • #4,247
  • Aug 2, 2009 8:55pm Aug 2, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting kodflakes
Im looking for the UJ to take a drop, this is the weekly, the trend is down, and we have a doji at the end of a small bull run right at my SR zone. I could be jumping the gun on this one but 1/2% is worth the risk to me.
Hi kodflakes,

I take it you're short the USDJPY and I'm curious to what your t/p method is, including what point you'd move your s/l to b/e - if you're open to share that intel :nerd:

From glancing at my 3H chart, what I'd add to your down-trendline is that price is very near the base of an uptrending channel, drawn from the 7/12 and 7/22 lows. Is that something you already considered?

I know it's counter-trend ... so for whatever it's worth I bring all this up as a point of discussion.
  • #4,248
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:13pm Aug 2, 2009 9:13pm
Soca
I dont think it is counter trend but while I was looking around I looked at the monthly I found a couple of reasons to get out. Look at the highlighted areas they are the opposite of what I wanted to happen over the next few days. This month closed the same way as the two but showing a reason not to short. Also as for what you said about the bottom of the channel it broke through the SR zone and closed below it. For some reason something didnt feel right I kept looking at it and found too many reasons to get out.

I ended up getting out at breakeven luckily it just sat there.

But my original SL was set at the high of the previous weekly candle plus a few pips. The Tp was set at the next zone. I was looking for the continuation of the trend that you can see on this chart. So in the end no loss no gain no worries.

Quoting Soca
Hi kodflakes,

I take it you're short the USDJPY and I'm curious to what your t/p method is, including what point you'd move your s/l to b/e - if you're open to share that intel :nerd:

From glancing at my 3H chart, what I'd add to your down-trendline is that price is very near the base of an uptrending channel, drawn from the 7/12 and 7/22 lows. Is that something you already considered?

I know it's counter-trend ... so for whatever it's worth I bring all this up as a point of discussion.
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  • #4,249
  • Aug 2, 2009 10:05pm Aug 2, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting drebin
Thanks CW. I just got hit for a .9% loss on a NZD/USD Trade. Entry at break of ledge on 7/30/09 on the daily chart. Figured primary trend is bearish, break of ledge and faced mad resistance at the top of rectangle pattern. bullish channel based on weekly/monthly charts, but price near the top, reacting to another resistance point. I thought this was a pretty good trade. Price was dueling with a minor level when I got in, perhaps that was my downfall. Fundamentally I thought with the markets bullish and the recent news on oil would make commodities...

Truthfully, this is what I call a "Shit happens" trade. I don't see too much that would have shaken me out.....I might have waited for just a few more pips south of where you got in.....but truthfully.....I would have lost there too mate!

Don't worry - it happens.

Chris
  • #4,250
  • Aug 3, 2009 1:49am Aug 3, 2009 1:49am
Quoting drebin
Thanks CW. I just got hit for a .9% loss on a NZD/USD Trade. Entry at break of ledge on 7/30/09 on the daily chart. Figured primary trend is bearish, break of ledge and faced mad resistance at the top of rectangle pattern. bullish channel based on weekly/monthly charts, but price near the top, reacting to another resistance point. I thought this was a pretty good trade. Price was dueling with a minor level when I got in, perhaps that was my downfall. Fundamentally I thought with the markets bullish and the recent news on oil would make commodities...
i was watching this pair too...here is what i went through...
as you make life harder for trades yours will be easier ...
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  • #4,251
  • Aug 3, 2009 2:23am Aug 3, 2009 2:23am
more charts about nzdusd..it was just a good opportunity to explain so many of my ideas..
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  • #4,252
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:01am Aug 3, 2009 4:01am
Bloody brilliant mate

Hats off to you nomask,
  • #4,253
  • Aug 3, 2009 7:05am Aug 3, 2009 7:05am
GbpUsd is bouncing around weekly R1 again at 1.68493. Is it preparing for a big break up? I'm going to watch this closely.
  • #4,254
  • Aug 3, 2009 7:06am Aug 3, 2009 7:06am
More arrows need more arrows
You put some real thought into your explanations excellent thought

Quoting nomask
more charts about nzdusd..it was just a good opportunity to explain so many of my ideas..
  • #4,255
  • Aug 3, 2009 7:20am Aug 3, 2009 7:20am
For the stock traders out there am I looking at this right. First thing that caught my eye is that Wynn finnally got back at the level that it had issues with the 50 area. The last time it got there it took the about same amount of volume that it took for it get there last time. There is MACD divergence. So Im short on this at the price shown.
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  • #4,256
  • Aug 3, 2009 7:38am Aug 3, 2009 7:38am
Quoting kodflakes
For the stock traders out there am I looking at this right. First thing that caught my eye is that Wynn finnally got back at the level that it had issues with the 50 area. The last time it got there it took the about same amount of volume that it took for it get there last time. There is MACD divergence. So Im short on this at the price shown.
wheres the confirming PA? or is this a blind short based on macd divergence and area?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #4,257
  • Aug 3, 2009 7:57am Aug 3, 2009 7:57am
good point I didnt even look for it this is just monopoly money
  • #4,258
  • Aug 3, 2009 8:10am Aug 3, 2009 8:10am
Quoting clockwork71
Truthfully, this is what I call a "Shit happens" trade. I don't see too much that would have shaken me out.....I might have waited for just a few more pips south of where you got in.....but truthfully.....I would have lost there too mate!

Don't worry - it happens.

Chris

Thanks Chris!
  • #4,259
  • Aug 3, 2009 8:14am Aug 3, 2009 8:14am
Quoting nomask
more charts about nzdusd..it was just a good opportunity to explain so many of my ideas..
Nomask: thanks for your insight. Good stuff!

Do you mind detailing a bit more when you put your fib expansions on?? Thanks!
  • #4,260
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:33am Aug 3, 2009 11:33am
I have a question for Chris or anyone else who feels like answering. Do you have any rules regarding a maximum number of open trades?

To clarify, last week I ended up taking three trades, as this new week opened, I was uncomfortable contemplating new opportunities, since one was in profit, one was at a loss, and one was just in between. If they had all been in profit, and I felt confident I could move my stops to BE without risking premature closure, then I would do so and go looking for new trades, but since two were questionable, I didn't even want to find any new opportunities, because I wanted my current positions to demonstrate their rightness or wrongness before taking on any more.

As it stands right now, the one that was at a loss has stopped out, which is fine by me, one less thing to worry about, the one that was doing nothing, I closed because it was hedging (accidentally again) against the one that was in profit.

And now I'm down to one, and willing to consider others.

So basically, I found my saturation point for risk, and needed to reduce risk before I could even look at another chart. This does not mean I'm looking to get into another trade today or tomorrow, or whenever, just that I felt like I had too much on my plate, and wasn't sure I wanted to eat it all.

Anyways, just my thoughts for this week, wondering if any of you have encountered similar situations, and if you what you did.
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