[MicroPips fund] my next 20-year day-scalping journal :)

faint, no crazy bull seen in us session today, (thanks to consumer confidence!)
instead I am slaughtered myself >_<

anyway.
hold long oil @67.73$, s/l 67.81$ (spread 8)
hold short oil @66.5$, no s/l, long term.

let's see if oil never rise above 67.8 for the rest of my life

G: this is just round 1, I am still alive,
let's see with this even narrower ranging (63.97, 66.5, 67.81), how can you still trade to profit in Q3.
(or you already have made it by 2 trade in July, okey, so you have no more greedy I am fine)

faint again. g win a 2nd round today (so near!)

I asked if c-oil never return to above 67.8$ for my life? if it return then my longs could exit...

it answered today!
it goes strait down.... till my long term short shows big profit >_<

oh no now it is not a profit, it is a hedged loss...

dm... who says enable hedging benefits trader!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ok g, keep up good work, the more you trade, the more likely I can prepare a bucketshop A.I. to scam you next time!

remember to limit your greedies and not use a leverage,
what if your Q3 report a trading loss, what stock price it will be?

think of it!

stop gambling or believe in this life I will be able to watch your stock to ground and buy at 1 cent.

seeing 2 'good' video on yahoo yesterday and today

1st was saying a 'recovery' built on easy money, speculation and bad debts, okey

2nd was saying a demand driven by 'investment' in virtual economy, okey again

now, what is the problem with this?
there is no problem at all reporting the reality, but why the moon has been hanging there all along and only now you suddenly found it is there???
what have you been day dreaming about?

my friend, look after your front instead of playing a mouth war.

fix your fake usd value 1st

you can short oil and gold to 40/900 and then I don't have to worry about what to invest for the next 10yrs.

do you really think people buy rise sell fall so you can manipulate every market and control where money is going? wake-up...

I don't think they (gov) are so stupid, they have been battling inflation for the past tens of years and they know much more than me of how things really worth.

talking about recovery out of creating a bubble isn't a realistic solution? very true statement
but biggest bubble is your printing cash is it not?? can you talk to fed 1st instead of shouting in news?
can you personally pay-off all house loan owed to banks, and stop borrowing before shouting that creating house bubble is wrong?

partial & selective honesty holds up your arrogance and will lose money later.... take care.

how does it take to be acting consistently and not expect to win from others loss? that sounds to me like no more than a 5 yr kid thinking.

because gov don't look at minute chart

they look at daily chart of past 12 months...
if past 12 month m-ov-m all +, then they say it's a rising trend.

what kind of manipulation should be able to show an illusion that usd gaining value?

at least 50% fib retrace from Jan.2009

so work harder manipulators... and create some real good oppotunity for us to profit from your deficiency...

1% market move doesn't justify the risk to correct upon either way, you're only collecting the over leverage gambler's stops...
did not push into the skin of elephants yet.

example? Jan to now euro 2 c-yuan rise from 0.88 to 0.96 constantly, that we can call it a trend and show it to anyone.
usd bounce 1% indicating that it is worth buying? come on you must be joking... it's ignorable.

Feb, 2008, thinking of sell gold
Apr, 2008, shall we sell gold?
Apr, 2009, well, G20 can I sell gold?
Jun, 2009, well, let's approve gold sell
July, 2009, hi, you know what, we're seriously considering selling gold, let's get 85% of 185 countries approve it 1st by Oct.



never see an indicator so accurate as to place money in your hand. (eventually)

no I didn't mean anything, I refer to their plan of selling gold and place money in your hand (quote from news).

best described as one night stand

Good luck!

thanks

there were not much study of equity or forex.

just 2 thinkings here:
1. reading history of equity market regulation:
in Y2003, market manipulation and it's funding borrow source was removed from home equity market in Y2003
so my guess from this is G. and it's funding source F. probably will eventually exit this function as well? I see no benefit of these guys jumping around in a market that should be free and fairly played.

2. a temp short term order eventually exit, also the long term 1 side order is showing a little more loss after accounting regardless of gains taken...
I show a clear weakness of unplanned roadmap and thus hesitating in interactive decision makings...
this was the same case in my career development, in a few years ago I was only planning to try a few interesting things in a new area, but exit signal was never clear and I am never decisive.

as a result of both trading and career, the initial motivation which could be done in a well planned and time-tight manner, realizing a market beating performance... eventually end up as undecisive exit due to no clear plan, and adding profit/loss together, somehow below the market.

that undecisiveness only showed benefit when I use the value investment method that only focus on 1 or 2 value target, watch for several years till indicator shows a good & stable ROI, and then buy and hold for the rest of the life...

em... need more thinking about my personal style and it's impact to career and investments.

what further manipulation will come out?

seems market laughed at tuesday-wednesday's usd strength in a one night stand pattern?

oh yeah... I was still reading about home equity market regulation history...

in, Apr, 1997, home gov bond cannot sell, so they direct media at the bubbles of stocks... then bong >_<

[edit] reading on... then in May, 1999, in asia econ crisis, gov need econ to show 'confidence', so they direct media at the benefits of equity market... then it recovers...

so now, does manipulators need stock down or up?

I tested quite a lot of hedge pairs in end June to July.

some of them quite successful due to luck... but spread is a major part of cost.

2 main mistake could happen with taking a hedge pair correction trade:
a. when profit goal hit, exit only 1 side of profit, hoping for lose side to close at b/e

a very bad trade is keeping dow side when exit oil long for a small profit taken (hope to get back in in a few hours actually)

this is no more than doing a new trade and hope it to hit at a t/p target, nothing guarantees it happen,
all past experiment shows a reasonable profit target (most likely 50pip-100pip) and a safe position size (0.1x to 1x leverage) is what it takes for a hedge pair correction trading to be returning reasonable benefit. don't be greedy!

b. while taking a big correction trade like ~500pips, impatient due to market peace & no move
then exit one side position to take some small profit, and hope to re-enter at lower cost...
again same as before, this is no more than doing a scalping... which I really cannot predict it, most of the trades in oil show that short term exit->re/enter in a long term correction trade add nothing more than big risk.

coz market could suddenly go against your desired direction and you wouldn't get on bus again most of the time...
in c-oil correction, I took 61->62 exit and missed 61->69
then I took 67.8 long for short term, caught in red and missed 66.5->62.5

again this reflects a lack of clear plan and decisiveness mentioned before.
========================================================

now the risk estimation of long term holdings next week
oil value center: 66~69~72 (63/75 would be over-shooting?)
dow value center: 8900~9150~9400 (8700/9600 would be over-shooting?)

available hedge protection: very few ...
long side risk seems apparent.........................

but then it's a new month who knows what trick manipulators will play now... maybe just watch a few days ...
=====================================================================================
the live acc test for fxcm-uk oil trade (30k position) has caused much cost and effort due to really big position (for me).
will try to exit it at reasonable cost as soon as possible.

till now it is 3000 usd profit taken and -4k usd in loss... (once only -2k usd loss >_< but want to exit b/e as greedy)
//also won a 5k euro = 7k usd bonus if deposit 14k usd in delta.

bad but still was affordable (now -1k$ can tolerate -5k net dynamic loss out of 15k acc) haha.

next month I will reset to the original plan, which is only trade 700$ positions out of a hundred $ acc... that makes me sleep well >_<

most of the times in our life, we stick to one thing and never change.
however,
when there is a mistake for the short term, what do we do?
when there is a mistake for the long term, what do we do?
people tend to stick to their belief and hope things come back & recover.

reality is,
when people make daily judgments, biased judgements, personal preference or even gamblings
quite a lot of them could be wrong,

but if we still stick to exit at 100% correct,
often(like 1%) chance, it goes in red in big and people simply give up and let lose run
eventually leverage + randomness kicks them out.

what do we learn from here?
1. try to make only big decisions, carefully, less decisions and good decisions only
2. only stick to what is proven right, carefully increase stakes,
instead, control your greedy and exit then profit goal is hit within given time,
not fall into a max profit trap and invest infinite time.
3. be sensitive to mistakes as well as wins,
identify and confirm mistakes and correct them instead of give up
exit on things proven wrong w/o feeling pity for time and money lost
4. stay with a realistic life goal and get from work
do you want 1hr work a week and beat world #1 investor proven in past 50yrs?
wake up that is a dream...

so now it seems the ore bidding play has been uncovered.

reality is far from what we imagined.

what happened is that iron factories has bought too many ores to be profitable last year,
they never used those ore at all... simply stoppped production and lived on gov rescue.

so why iron-factory-union breaks with rio?
because then iron factory can only buy ore from real market...
which by theory is much more expensive (50% more) than long-term-supply agreement from rio.

and because of the media promotions etc... the public is showing sympathy so they understand and accept the extreme high iron price for iron factory to be profitable
by calculation with assumption that they bought ore from real market.

now who benefit from this game?
rio? no, they lost major customer and will probably bankrupt due to their greedy
(ok you say their cost is 20$ a ton and selling at 100$ previous years made money enough for 5yrs to live? okey anyway they are no good guy too)
public? no, they bought higher high iron products
base on the 0 sum rule, then the iron factories benefit...

oh no they are crying they were forced to buy ore from real market and 2x more expensive isn't it??
no!! they had too many ore in stock...

so what this media game plays, is for public to accept higher iron price for iron factories to be profitable....

a 0 sum game between domestic monopoly and the public.
and rio is out of the game.

see what happens? 1000 yrs back a wisdom says this
"no matter this king wins the war or that, the public is always paying..."

what is more funny is they had created a domestic only 'iron futures' market.
and then because only iron factories have real products, only they are allowed to short.
now they long! and they borrow money to long! and public idiots also long!!
... no one is worried about too high price... why? because public & house loaner idiots buy house at whatever high price...

well... in the end gov will be unhappy of cpi, and then iron factory will change to short and eliminate all iron future players...
they are the only ones who can provide real iron to the dealers when the short contract closes...

see... in addition to profit made from high iron price out of factory, they can also profit from manipulating price in a 1 direction iron futures market that it monopoly.

stock markets also pushed iron factory stocks high because both iron product price and iron future rise... then iron factory can also profit by selling papers to stock investor idiots...

see what a tripple gain (product, future, stock) & 1 hurt (rio) gambling they have won!!

obviously some kind of manipulation or over-speculation is going on...

try to dig more background out of it...

I guess should be -0.5~-1.5%

this number will be down-played

since any + number cause speculation of interest rate raise
but number too low indicate econ continue slide...
no number satisfies all...

so it should be between -0.5%~-1.5% and improve upon previous months...
I don't agree with ff front/page cpi y ov y -1.7% forecast and I will not regard any number better than that as very positive.

let's see 22pm EST later.

ppi will be high but I'd ignore that number too, pure hot money speculations...
fixed asset investment too... they built houses priced more exp than US and sell to people making <300usd a month, what a joke... the more built the more wasted...

if we're not so near-sighted...
most important number for c is monthly cash income for farmers,
at this moment it is still <100 usd/month...
I am wondering when/how it can become 10k usd/month (without usd devalue by 100x of coz...)

base on some boasts it can be done by teaching forex trading to everyone, but of coz that is just a joke...

1. fed's difficulty in confusing real rate and announced rate

real fund rate in reality is raising
(why?, because money is becoming more and more not-worthy, 10$ has to become 11$ end of year or it's less worthy, that means real rate is 10%/yr)

but fed dare not raise it? why?
because it is pumping money to create bubbles to rescue economy
and now people got tied to the pumped money and for fear of stopping it kills the loop in a sudden

this is like people eating drug for self-cure and then become dependent and stopping drug will let it die.

2. one possibility to explain equity drop and rise this 2 day
people sell stock before fed decision to avoid market randomness risk upon fed announcement (imagine it like forex, we exit before news)
and people buy it back after fed assured no rate raise
... but this is only 1 possibility (>51% true) because raise rate is always risk and not raise rate is always good news

3. facing real economy problems
over the past half year, people are already aware that we're using more bubble money to rescue people trapped in a existing bubble... what's the point doing that?

ok, the people trapped in a existing bubble are guys that linked with power, and they want to get out of the trouble,
so they create a new bubble and attract (or force) people into it by making money cheaper.

after this half year or what, more bubble has been created and people trapped in previous bubble was able to exit at b/e or much less loss than worst.

now problem comes... nothing new got created except more bubble?
then what? the power-inside people will run away, because they designed this game only to use others money to rescue themselves.

then the innocent people who run into the new bubbles will pay for both the old and new bubbles.

over the past month I've seen people running into bubbles by following blindly, and then made money, and then ... lost 10% money over past 10 days.

even if because of #2 they can gain some money back after 'policy assured', (it is almost certain they make 2%+ money tomorrow at least)
but it is clear that eventually those blind followers will pay the bill. they are doomed if they think coming to the investment (bucketshop) made them win money. no...

4. in summary?
c-banks are running a bucketshop game
create bubbles, let new comers pay the bill for old bubble-makers.

in the end who will win? old bubble makers could run away and it's foreseeable what the life of new bubble buyers rest of life could be.

out of recession? are you joking?

shanghai/shenzhen stocks today..
dow/nasdaq stocks today..

I was aware that some broker do contract swap starting today.

so it seems significant numbers of long contracts has been closed and swap to oct...

however, it seem to be different price for WTI1009 and 0909 and COIL1009 and 0909

site from nymex:

Sep 2009 68.73 n/a 70.90 71.60 68.32 70.52 -1.79
Oct 2009 70.74 n/a 72.77 73.57 70.35 72.48 -1.74
Nov 2009 72.17 n/a 74.24 74.90 71.81 73.87 -1.70
Dec 2009 73.10 n/a 74.95 75.78 72.72 74.75 -1.65
Jan 2010 73.75 n/a 76.00 76.00 73.66 75.50 -1.75
Feb 2010 74.48 n/a 76.73 76.73 74.32 76.16 -1.68

one problem you may notice from here.... if we assume Fed print dollar at 1% more a month, then oil price makes sense.
otherwise long term contract price is higher due to 'storage fee'
then now why we cannot produce oil and sell what is produced for the month no or very little storage needed
... but store oil with a cost instead... is it in speculation that price will run higher?

1. see g.s clapse due to over-leverage & manipulation in oil trading
if buffet is to rescue it again, bury the 2 together...

2. see local rare metals ores trade at 10x of what the price it is now,
and at 100x of what it is now end of the century

3. see local direct labors pay 10x of what it is now due to correct pricing of resource, material, technology, supply and demand,
and at 100x of what it is now end of the century

correct the unbalanced prices cross geo over-time (labor, oil, ores, currency, etc)

no the goal is not to achieve an advantagous & unbalanced price due to monopoly,
but to achieve what is a fair price by invest more on market efficiency and market corrections...

and realize what it is said... all are created equal and have fair rights to get paid in a same standard and be free to pursue their happiness.
this is definition of economic democracy in my understanding.

trading is the means, and the goal is the pursue of truth, happiness and fairness.

still in the top range but dropped by 8M.

import less by 1M, others 7M are real demand growth?
[edit] import less by 7M, others 1M are real demand growth.