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Experimental Circle Analysis of EUR/USD

  • #21
  • Aug 1, 2009 8:56pm Aug 1, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting brijon
i demonstrated on an early thread re roll over how the 8 major currencys move over a 1 mnth period from profit to loss to profit, the movement can be large as shown on this screen snapshot

so you may down load brians indicater here and draw your circles as per an example on mt4

the indicator plots the 8 major currencys in colors for each currency, you can clearly look at history of month major moves and see the corelation of currencys
ill post a screen snapshot showing dojis 40 k balance obtained over 7 days
no stop loss just working on circle...
Hey brian thanks for the info, I'll look through it, been busy trying to make some how to charts just to show the process of what I've done. Redrawing everything I got some different results after the 8th of August or so. Not sure we're going down to 3750 by the 10th anymore...Everythings been by visualization so far, so I've got to hammer out some better mathematical or technical rules for plotting and fitting the curves. Hopefully your stuff can help.

Up to the 8th of August I get the same results though. I'm only really concerned with the nearest prediction anyway. You need price data to be as fresh as possible to get good results for this.
  • #22
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:04pm Aug 1, 2009 9:04pm
Quoting Rednose
Nice thread Steve,
Iīll be following your posts. Itīs a very interesting theory(system).

Thank you for Sharing.

does it applies to all TF`S?
Hey Rednose, good to see you over here. Thanks for posting. Chicky said he's got a friend who's really good at this and he only uses the Larger TF's to do it. So I'm guessing it does. I've got some interesting analyses of the larger TF's-I'll put them up later. I just want to post some how to charts that I made. In making them I think I actually drew more accurate charts than the first ones I made. My results for tommorow don't change, or the few days after that, but later results do. I'll put them up in a minute.
  • #23
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:05pm Aug 1, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting brijon
i demonstrated on an early thread re roll over how the 8 major currencys move over a 1 mnth period from profit to loss to profit, the movement can be large as shown on this screen snapshot

so you may down load brians indicater here and draw your circles as per an example on mt4

the indicator plots the 8 major currencys in colors for each currency, you can clearly look at history of month major moves and see the corelation of currencys
ill post a screen snapshot showing dojis...
Hello Brian,
What does your indicator shows?
How can it be readed?
and which actions should be taken when?
how can it be used in this system?

Thank you for sharing.

Regards.
  • #24
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:07pm Aug 1, 2009 9:07pm
Ok, someone asked me to put up some simpler charts to show how I made the system. So I put a three step how to together- Or at least how I did it. I think they're better charts than my first ones...
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  • #25
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:08pm Aug 1, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting stevefx
Hey Rednose, good to see you over here. Thanks for posting. Chicky said he's got a friend who's really good at this and he only uses the Larger TF's to do it. So I'm guessing it does. I've got some interesting analyses of the larger TF's-I'll put them up later. I just want to post some how to charts that I made. In making them I think I actually drew more accurate charts than the first ones I made. My results for tommorow don't change, or the few days after that, but later results do. I'll put them up in a minute.
Hey Steve,

I would really like to understand your system so count on me as a reader and a questioner(?)..(donīt know if this word exists in English..but I believe you know what I mean.)

I got to sleep now but in few hours Iīll be looking at your charts.

Good Luck man and thank you for taking your time to share your thoughts with all of us.

ps-WOW!! it was faster as I thought!! gonna check this now!

Red.
  • #26
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:14pm Aug 1, 2009 9:14pm
Truly outside of the box thinking. Honestly though, I don't get it. Looks very subjective to me. Of course it's late on a Saturday night. Maybe I'll take another look at it tomorrow to get a fresh look.
  • #27
  • Edited 9:37pm Aug 1, 2009 9:17pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting maxreturn
Truly outside of the box thinking. Honestly though, I don't get it. Looks very subjective to me. Of course it's late on a Saturday night. Maybe I'll take another look at it tomorrow to get a fresh look.
I think your right, but what trading isn't subjective?

One thing I'll say though, is that I haven't been doing this for years, I've been doing it for 8 days or so...I said in the first post that this is experimental-my hope was that those with an interest in this kind of thing would participate and maybe we could make something good after some refinement. So I'm learning just like everybody else-I'm just the creator of the thread, not the expert...
  • #28
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:59pm Aug 1, 2009 9:59pm
I just want to make a comment on the new charts and where the results differ from my previous ones. Everything up to the big yellow dot remains the same as I saw before. Where the red X is, is where I'm getting different results. I don't really think you should draw more than one line of projected circles into the future, you need the freshest price data possible to be the most accurate. Near term predictions are a lot more likely to work out using this system.

With that, good night all, I need my rest if I'm going to eat all that humble pie in the next few days...lol...
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  • #29
  • Edited 12:49am Aug 2, 2009 12:45am | Edited 12:49am
Quoting rednose
hello brian,
what does your indicator shows?
How can it be readed?
And which actions should be taken when?
How can it be used in this system?

Thank you for sharing.

Regards.
the indicator shows the 8 major currencys moving together ,
the centre line is the cross over point, the 8 currencys are in individual colors, therefore if you imagine the center line as the center point of the circle

you will see the reference to prices of the currencys and also looking back on the months you can predict somewhat future months highs and lows


also in points of time the current trend of the 8 currencies from the center is easy to see

also not shown here an overlay of the dollar index and currency index shows the current trend of the currency you are interested
against the 8 major currencies


its getting away from the subject but brians index shows the co relationship of the 8 currencies trending direction in relationship with each other and also confirms the idea of the circle nature of profit loss profit and circle trading method

i hope this general explanation helps these advanced Forex concepts
  • #30
  • Aug 2, 2009 7:55am Aug 2, 2009 7:55am
Quoting brijon
the indicator shows the 8 major currencys...
Thank you for your answer, Iīm not a matemathical guy myself but Iīll try to understand it.

Iīll pm you to discuss this issue in order to keep steveīs thread "clean".

Once again thank you very much.
  • #31
  • Aug 2, 2009 7:56am Aug 2, 2009 7:56am
Quoting stevefx
I just want to make a comment on the new charts and where the results differ from my previous ones. Everything up to the big yellow dot remains the same as I saw before. Where the red X is, is where I'm getting different results. I don't really think you should draw more than one line of projected circles into the future, you need the freshest price data possible to be the most accurate. Near term predictions are a lot more likely to work out using this system.

With that, good night all, I need my rest if I'm going to eat all that humble pie in...

Hey Steve based on what information can you predict PA going up or down when it come to an intersection??
  • #32
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:27am Aug 2, 2009 9:27am
Quoting Rednose
Hey Steve based on what information can you predict PA going up or down when it come to an intersection??
Hey Rednose. Funny you asked that because I was just about to put up a simple tutorial to show how to figure that out.

Its very simple. At this point you can see in the chart below that there are two channels open right now for the price to move through, labeled A and B. B is favored, A is not. Why?

The price chooses the path which violates the larger blue Daily system LESS. Remember it wants to stay out of the center of these zones. So in this case by taking path B, it will go less deeply into a Daily Blue zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:49am Aug 2, 2009 9:49am
Sorry about the caps, didn't mean to be rude-but thats really the key and only rule for determining how price navigates through the channels, so I just wanted it to be clear. As time goes on and more is learned about this kind of analysis, maybe other clues and rules will come to the surface...
  • #34
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:53am Aug 2, 2009 9:53am
Understood.Looking forward to see what comes.

Thanx a lot.
  • #35
  • Aug 2, 2009 9:55am Aug 2, 2009 9:55am
Quoting stevefx
Sorry about the caps, didn't mean to be rude-but thats really the key and only rule for determining how price navigates through the channels, so I just wanted it to be clear. As time goes on and more is learned about this kind of analysis, maybe other clues and rules will come to the surface...
Donīt worry about the way you write man, itīs fine, Iīm not so sensible with this kind of things I also use caps to put something important on the spotlight.

  • #36
  • Aug 2, 2009 10:07am Aug 2, 2009 10:07am
Quoting Rednose
Donīt worry about the way you write man, itīs fine, Iīm not so sensible with this kind of things I also use caps to put something important on the spotlight.

Ok thanks, nothing worse than a thread starter with a big head, didn't want you to think I was falling into that catagory
  • #37
  • Edited 4:23pm Aug 2, 2009 3:18pm | Edited 4:23pm
I've been giving closer study to the Daily Zones of influence. One thing I noticed is that you definitely get some overlap of influence on the larger Daily Zones. This probably exists also on the 4hr zones, but its too small at that level to pick up and chart.

Anyway I adjusted the Daily Zones for this observation.

Second thing I'm noticing is that although my results for the upcoming trend indications haven't changed-down is still more favorable than up-
its a pretty marginal decision. Its only marginally more favorable as a downtrend.

So if you examine the charts, and try to figure out the story in that light, it makes sense. Price is facing a tough choice between two paths and the violent swings that we are seeing lately reflect this.

I show on the chart below two comparisons:

The first measures the closest distance that price will come to the center of the daily zones, as an average. Price wants to stay out of the center, so bigger is better here.

The second shows how far price will travel away from the perimeter of the daily zones twords the center. It wants to stay on the perimeter so smaller is better here.

The last thing I wanted to do is to give an explanation of how these things should be interpreted, so people can understand why these rules might hold up.

Basically these zones, both big daily zones and small 4hr TF zones, represent the overall psychological interests of the market. Bigger zones represent longer term financial interests and perhaps more substantial money than the smaller zones. When these zones get penetrated people start to fight because the interests the zones represent are Eur/USD positional.

So thats what you have right now, a fight over which Daily Zone of interest is going to get invaded. The way I see it, the people with the interests in keeping price out of the higher zone are going to fight harder, because that zone is going to get penetrated more deeply if price goes there. Or I guess a better way to say it is that overall market interest, according to the charts, is tilting in favor of keeping the price down right now. Anyway, thats the philosophy behind it.
  • #38
  • Aug 2, 2009 3:20pm Aug 2, 2009 3:20pm
Woops forgot to post the chart. Here it is:
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  • #39
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:36pm Aug 3, 2009 12:36pm
Ok here's my latest and most updated charts. Its all well and good to post things in hindsight, but real time is where things get put to the test.

Remember this is all theoretical-please no one go out and bet the ranch on this stuff. I myself only Demo trade and test at this point.
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  • #40
  • Last Post: Aug 3, 2009 7:16pm Aug 3, 2009 7:16pm
This is just a better version of the chart above, cleaned up and adjusted for the daily trendline.
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