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Silent Service Method

  • #4,201
  • Jul 31, 2009 11:50am Jul 31, 2009 11:50am
Quoting Danku
For those of us having problems scanning many pairs....just want to mention that GBP/USD and CAD/JPY are looking good and are very important areas.............

GBP/USD:-1.6600 is strong Resistance and it looking to break...lets wait and see

CAD/JPY:- 89.00 is also strong Resistance and is testing this again. Am liking the tails of this resistance area.

PATIENCE AND MORE PATIENCE........see the two charts below (Daily)

Hey Danku:

What about the CAD/JPY, would you play a break of the low on the pin bar or wait for a retrace back to resistance? Seems to me this is the retrace back to support, maybe play the break of the pin?? thanks.
  • #4,202
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:30pm Jul 31, 2009 12:30pm
I'm in the GBPCHF short trade off yesterday's H4 PB. My plan was to move my stop to BE when price broke through the 1.785 support and then to move it to above 1.785 when price broke the 1.780 support.

I'm now questioning this approach given the severity of today's move down as there could be a retrace up to test the lows around the bottom of the PB and I want to give it room to breathe.

Chris - If if read your post correctly, you're not moving to BE until price tests the TL, is that right? Or would you lock in some profit at that point?

My goal is to trail this trade based on H4 S/R per the Silent Service method, but I'm concerned I may be overanalysing and seeing S/R zones that are too insignificant to warrant moving your stop behind.

Cheers
Simon

P.S. I've been totally slammed at work so I haven't been posting, but will try to remedy that when work eases up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF_H4_07-31-09_PB_In_Trade.png Size: 65 KB
  • #4,203
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:34pm Jul 31, 2009 12:34pm
Apologies for the non-chart interruption, but I can't for the love of god work out how to draw a simple line in Jing. Is it possible?

Being the generous soul that I am, the first correct explanation will get a smiley showing the sign of the goat.

Cheers
Simon
  • #4,204
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:42pm Jul 31, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
Apologies for the non-chart interruption, but I can't for the love of god work out how to draw a simple line in Jing. Is it possible?

Being the generous soul that I am, the first correct explanation will get a smiley showing the sign of the goat.

Cheers
Simon

There isn't a line feature (I was wrong), just use the rectangle feature, and make the rectangle really narrow. It looks like a line then.
  • #4,205
  • Jul 31, 2009 12:57pm Jul 31, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting Low
There isn't a line feature (I was wrong), just use the rectangle feature, and make the rectangle really narrow. It looks like a line then.
We have a winner!



Cheers Low.
  • #4,206
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:00pm Jul 31, 2009 1:00pm
We've just had an implosion across many pairs and I'm wondering how to play the GBPUSD which is threatening a breakout of the range it's been wallowing in for a few weeks.

My ideas are on the charts.

Any thoughts?

Cheers
Simon
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_daily_07-31-09_setup.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_07-31-09_setup.png Size: 94 KB
  • #4,207
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:06pm Jul 31, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
I'm in the GBPCHF short trade off yesterday's H4 PB. My plan was to move my stop to BE when price broke through the 1.785 support and then to move it to above 1.785 when price broke the 1.780 support.

I'm now questioning this approach given the severity of today's move down as there could be a retrace up to test the lows around the bottom of the PB and I want to give it room to breathe.

Chris - If if read your post correctly, you're not moving to BE until price tests the TL, is that right? Or would you lock in some profit at that point?

My goal...

Thanks for asking a question that could potentially cost you money Simon, I love that.

For me, I am letting it run.....only because 1.8 is such a "big picture area".

You could be at b/e now I believe. I am looking at ADDING to this if we go through that trend line and it fails to hold. (Perhaps a failure and a retest would be nice.)

This could be a longer term move. If it is - I want to be in it. If not, well shit happens I guess. It only takes one or two of these to make a year truth be known. (Especially if you are adding at strategic points.)

Oh, and by the way.....I need your email address. Send it to me via PM. I have some Guinea Pig work for you! Or even a phone number, either would work.

Chris
  • #4,208
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:08pm Jul 31, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
Apologies for the non-chart interruption, but I can't for the love of god work out how to draw a simple line in Jing. Is it possible?

Being the generous soul that I am, the first correct explanation will get a smiley showing the sign of the goat.

Cheers
Simon

Now how in the hell can anyone resist that offer?
  • #4,209
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:14pm Jul 31, 2009 1:14pm
I love it when this happens! Ugh.
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  • #4,210
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:15pm Jul 31, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
I'm in the GBPCHF short trade off yesterday's H4 PB. My plan was to move my stop to BE when price broke through the 1.785 support and then to move it to above 1.785 when price broke the 1.780 support.

I'm now questioning this approach given the severity of today's move down as there could be a retrace up to test the lows around the bottom of the PB and I want to give it room to breathe.

Chris - If if read your post correctly, you're not moving to BE until price tests the TL, is that right? Or would you lock in some profit at that point?

My goal...
By the way Simon, you don't have enough lines on your chart. I can still see the price!
  • #4,211
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:23pm Jul 31, 2009 1:23pm
On the radar....
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  • #4,212
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:30pm Jul 31, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thanks for asking a question that could potentially cost you money Simon, I love that.

For me, I am letting it run.....only because 1.8 is such a "big picture area".

You could be at b/e now I believe. I am looking at ADDING to this if we go through that trend line and it fails to hold. (Perhaps a failure and a retest would be nice.)

This could be a longer term move. If it is - I want to be in it. If not, well shit happens I guess. It only takes one or two of these to make a year truth be known. (Especially if you are adding at strategic...
So when price hits the TL will you then only move your stop to BE? Or will you then lock in some profit? I ask because if you were to add in at a break and retest of the TL wouldn't your stops all be just above the TL, thereby locking in profit from your first position - or would you leave the original position at BE and hide the stop for the new position behind the TL?

Apologies for what must seem like repeat questions, but I think my tiny mind is struggling with the bigger picture.

Simon
  • #4,213
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:47pm Jul 31, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
By the way Simon, you don't have enough lines on your chart. I can still see the price!
All joking aside, this is something that I continually struggle with. Ideally I'd have only my weekly PPZs lines on my charts, but here is what I have any why:

Red dashed lines - weekly PPZs (our guiding light)
Green solid lines - 2 fibs from previous down move (confluence for setups)
Green dashed lines - big round numbers (more confluence and use them to identify S/R to hide stops behind on H4 charts)
Grey dashed lines - Bollinger Bands (great for box trades with divergence and helps identify trends)
365 and 150 EMAs (confluence for setups and to hide stops behind)
Grey line - price (someone said I needed this line as well)

The problem I find is that to identify setups I need to be able to quickly see if price is at a strong PPZ and if there are any confluences, so I add the other lines. But if I don't have all this on my charts then I don't see the confulences that helps distinguish a good from a great setup.

I really envy nomask's, low's and your charts since they all look so clean, but if I were to try and replicate them then I wouldn't know where the confluences lie so I'd make bad decisions.

There are many times I've entered a trade on my own without looking at the forums only to then discover that I've traded right into an EMA or a fib or S/R that has held up my trade and I wouldn't have entered had I seen it before. Hence why I feel I need to have it all on there the whole time.

I also keep notes on each pair telling me what to look out for and areas to watch, which helps me keep on top of it. This is especially helpful when I'm working like a bugger and only have 5 mins to check the charts.

Now, of course, it sounds as though I'm defending having many lines on my charts, when in fact I really don't like them. I'd much rather have only weekly S/R but I can't see a way of doing that without missing the other confluences etc.

Any ideas?

Simon
  • #4,214
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:55pm Jul 31, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting AnimalHungry
So when price hits the TL will you then only move your stop to BE? Or will you then lock in some profit? I ask because if you were to add in at a break and retest of the TL wouldn't your stops all be just above the TL, thereby locking in profit from your first position - or would you leave the original position at BE and hide the stop for the new position behind the TL?

Apologies for what must seem like repeat questions, but I think my tiny mind is struggling with the bigger picture.

Simon
I would never allow an added position to turn both into a loss.Added would be a smaller amount, and if I got stopped out - it would be for all positions
  • #4,215
  • Jul 31, 2009 1:58pm Jul 31, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting drebin
Hey Danku:

What about the CAD/JPY, would you play a break of the low on the pin bar or wait for a retrace back to resistance? Seems to me this is the retrace back to support, maybe play the break of the pin?? thanks.
Hi drebin,

Am already short this pair off the 4-hr OB.....this is CT and have placed tight T/P........my feed does not show a PB but shows a good OB...again just worried about the CT...see chart below........cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #4,216
  • Jul 31, 2009 2:39pm Jul 31, 2009 2:39pm
Here's an interesting chart... It's 15 min GbpUsd. This won't teach you a thing about trading on daily and 4h charts but it will highlight the importance of support and resistance to your trading, however you do it.

As I said it's 15min, the blue box is the morning range (I've been investigating open range breakouts and pretty close to a reliable method, anyone interested PM me), the lines are daily and weekly pivot points.

The morning didn't breakout, nothing to get excited about there, but notice how price spent most of the day bouncing off weekly and daily R1 which just happen to be at the same place (confluence of s/r levels). As soon as that level is broken in a move with significant momentum it carries on for 100 pips or so. Your stop loss, 20 or 30 pips would've done it. A nice trade for anybody watching it.

It helps also that those pivot points just happen to coincide with the same minor resistance level ( I say minor as it's not very strong on the weekly chart, more like it's just above 1.65 and could more be called the top of that zone) that price has been struggling to break through from for weeks.

I'm not suggesting anybody starts trading 15 min charts and I only stumbled upon it as I had the chart open to go through the OR breakouts but I just thought it shows clearly how s and r really are your best friends, after the trend of course
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 15 min pivot breakout.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #4,217
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:31pm Jul 31, 2009 3:31pm
I saw a picture of really succesful trader a long time ago and in the background of the picture was a poster that read losers average losers

Hel13 Ive been using a 3 ma system with swing HI/Lows to guage entries works real well in times like this when there is not a clear direction on the longer term stuff also on the 15 min. I like it because im in and out rather quickly but it took a long time for me to get it profitable.

Quoting clockwork71
I would never allow an added position to turn both into a loss.Added would be a smaller amount, and if I got stopped out - it would be for all positions
  • #4,218
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:38pm Jul 31, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
On the radar....
CW: How do you play these "ledges"? Do you wait for a completed price bar breaking the lowest low or highest high or do you wait on a breakout and retest? An example would be sweet...thanks.
  • #4,219
  • Jul 31, 2009 3:48pm Jul 31, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting kodflakes
I saw a picture of really succesful trader a long time ago and in the background of the picture was a poster that read losers average losers

Hel13 Ive been using a 3 ma system with swing HI/Lows to guage entries works real well in times like this when there is not a clear direction on the longer term stuff also on the 15 min. I like it because im in and out rather quickly but it took a long time for me to get it profitable.
Yes but there's a difference between adding to a winner and buying a sinking ship.

I read in a book, J Person I think, about using the 3sma of the typical price (the pivot point) to give you a reversal entry on any time frame but he was using it on 5, 15 and 60 min charts. It's not something I've looked at in a while due to this thread but I think combined with s/r meaning all of it, pivot points, fibonacci, historic round numbers it would be a profitable system on any time frame.

I think I prefer taking that sort of trade with the trend though rather than trying to predict a reversal.

It's intersting that now the gbpusd is hovering around weekly R2 after breaking R1. I think traders do watch pivot points especially on gbpusd.

Recently I'm finding GbpJpy to be a really nice pair to trade on 4H charts, the movement seems somehow to be smoother and almost more predictable. You can get some really nice entries without risking too much. Perhaps as my all round experience grows I'm just getting more of a feel for how to trade s/r bounces?
  • #4,220
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:36pm Jul 31, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting hel13rock
Yes but there's a difference between adding to a winner and buying a sinking ship.

I read in a book, J Person I think, about using the 3sma of the typical price (the pivot point) to give you a reversal entry on any time frame but he was using it on 5, 15 and 60 min charts. It's not something I've looked at in a while due to this thread but I think combined with s/r meaning all of it, pivot points, fibonacci, historic round numbers it would be a profitable system on any time frame.

I think I prefer taking that sort of trade with the trend though...

I would suspect the latter of the two. I know a lot of traders that fear GBP/JPY. But the truth is, if you trade longer time frames, it really isn't any different than any other pair.

If you are risking 250 pips on GBP/JPY, and it's 1% of your account....

And you are risking 90 pips on EUR/USD, and it's 1% of your account....

What's the difference?
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