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Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #161
  • Jul 31, 2009 4:01am Jul 31, 2009 4:01am
Quoting lefteye
Hey Guys,
UJ could reach channel's top and beware of strong reaction...~96.50.

cheers ^o^
Great observation; although, since we still have roughly 100-pip space, I think it’s still somewhat safe to seek Long trade set-up on the Hourly – if the Daily and H4 support a Long trade.
  • #162
  • Jul 31, 2009 5:01am Jul 31, 2009 5:01am
Pls NOTE: On the Weekly chart, as earlier observed and posted by Lefteye, let us be wary of resistance pressure on price as it advances toward the upper part of a downward channel.

On the Daily chart (attached), price recently broke the most recent swing high @ 95.37 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further price movement upward. As we could see, price is within a downward channel – which is also visible on the Weekly chart – hence, let’s be wary of a downside pressure as price moves further upward toward the upper edge of the channel. There’s roughly a 100-pip space between current price position and the channel’s upper edge; I believe that, from a day-trade perspective, it’s still relatively safe to seek a Hourly Long trade set-up – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 95.35 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. A resistance level – the previous day high @ 95.86 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is a level we might like to keep in mind, and probably want broken. In all, from a day-trade perspective, the H4 chart is supporting a Long trade. The green horizontal line @ 94.00 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #163
  • Edited 5:40am Jul 31, 2009 5:16am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting tex123
61 and 38 confluence, weekly S1 pivot at 4103 Daily R1 pivot 1.4110 - I'm hoping it will continue down. Attachment
Tex, I guess you’re in a Short trade? Please manage your trade properly; the Short bias on the H4 chart (attached) is no more valid. The most recent swing @ 1.4095 has been broken upward.
Minimizing our losses is an excellent way to trade in certain circumstances.
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  • #164
  • Jul 31, 2009 6:45am Jul 31, 2009 6:45am
My entry level for Euro was 1.4154. I missed getting in by 1 pip. But I will be watching the price action on shorter time frame and get in if I see another sign. Other than overlapping Fibs there is also a Gartley there plus weekly M2.
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  • #165
  • Jul 31, 2009 8:08am Jul 31, 2009 8:08am
Quoting rumba68
My entry level for Euro was 1.4154. I missed getting in by 1 pip. But I will be watching the price action on shorter time frame and get in if I see another sign. Other than overlapping Fibs there is also a Gartley there plus weekly M2.
Mike, you’re talking about a very valid Gartley set-up on the Hourly & H4 charts that supports a Short trade on the EURUSD. Though, a Short trade is valid from that point of view, but you know it contradicts this method’s bias. I think we should be careful not to confuse newer traders among us.
You know there are limitless ways to interpret the market and contradictory positions on the same pair could still end up in profit - if they're both managed properly; but let’s try and keep the focus of the thread.
  • #166
  • Aug 1, 2009 9:45pm Aug 1, 2009 9:45pm
My thoughts for Aug. 3 trades are

1. EU---- Monthly orientation is up, so is Wkly and Daily.
4hr has changed to an up orientation as well as 1hr.

So i'll be looking for a long signal on 1hr/15mins. tf.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu monthly.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu wkly.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu dly.gif Size: 19 KB
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God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #167
  • Edited Aug 3, 2009 4:57am Aug 2, 2009 3:33pm | Edited Aug 3, 2009 4:57am
Quoting D liberators
My thoughts for Aug. 3 trades are

1. EU---- Monthly orientation is up, so is Wkly and Daily.
4hr has changed to an up orientation as well as 1hr.

So i'll be looking for a long signal on 1hr/15mins. tf.
D liberators, happy new month! You’re quite right, the most recent Weekly swing high has been broken upward, and H4 chart supports Long trades. Definitely, these are bullish signs and we should consider seeking Long trade set-ups on the Hourly chart.
However, price is hovering around the year high @ 1.4336, which is a very critical resistance level: Let’s just keep that in mind.
  • #168
  • Aug 2, 2009 3:41pm Aug 2, 2009 3:41pm
Guys, I wish us all a successful August.
  • #169
  • Aug 3, 2009 12:16am Aug 3, 2009 12:16am
Looking forward to it Tunji.. Looks like we have news coming out later also.
  • #170
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:17am Aug 3, 2009 3:17am
Quoting tex123
Looking forward to it Tunji.. Looks like we have news coming out later also.
Yes Tex, the first week of the month is usually a loaded news week.
  • #171
  • Aug 3, 2009 3:28am Aug 3, 2009 3:28am
On the Daily chart (attached), price recently broke a very major resistance level – the year high @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This signals the possibility of further price movement upward. To me, this single price action is major enough to be the only analysis on the GBPUSD Daily chart for today.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.6525 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. The green horizontal line @ 1.6471 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it – in the absence of any new and higher swing low – our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #172
  • Aug 3, 2009 4:20am Aug 3, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Tunji
D liberators, happy new month! You’re quite, the most recent Weekly swing high has been broken upward, and H4 chart supports Long trades. Definitely, these are bullish signs and we should consider seeking Long trade set-ups on the Hourly chart.
However, price is hovering around the year high @ 1.4336, which is a very critical resistance level: Let’s just keep that in mind.
Hello Tunji,

I have my weekly R level at 1.4337, so i agree with you. (forgive my lack of patience for posting detailed analysis.

My bias for GJ is long so i''ll be watching for more signals to go long (1 signal already done 100+ pips)

Wish you all a happy and pipful August.
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #173
  • Aug 3, 2009 5:36am Aug 3, 2009 5:36am
Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6879. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6787 and 1.6695 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6695 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6928 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.6879 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there is just a single potential reversal level available (quite unusual):

fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6735.
(Actually, the fib 78.6% ret. is about 12 pips away from its supporting overlapping major fib 38.2% ret., but, considering the strong confluence, which also includes three pivots and a previous Hourly swing high – six supports – the set-up looks too beautiful to ignore)

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6693; primary Profit target @ 1.6928 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
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  • #174
  • Aug 3, 2009 11:25am Aug 3, 2009 11:25am
Guys, I hope you’ll agree with me that today has simply been a test of patience – no significant retracements on the majors; but the possible good news is we might finally be getting out of the wearing ranging markets.

@ D liberators
I’m quite sure patience had her way with you today… . Well, the day isn’t completely over; though, that’s for those that’ll still be in the market.
  • #175
  • Edited 4:03am Aug 4, 2009 3:58am | Edited 4:03am
On the Monthly chart (attached), we could see price has conveniently broken above the very major fib. 38.2% retracement level @ 1.6427 – after two months of struggle. Price is now set to test the fib. 50% ret. level @ 1.7331. However, there is a critical resistance level – a previous distinct swing low @ 1.7050 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line); this level might pose a major barrier for the current upward price move, and we might see price struggling against an intense resistance pressure. Please let’s keep this critical level in mind.

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, price decisively broke a very major resistance level – now previous year-high @ 1.6744 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. This sustains our bias in favor of further price movement upward. However, the critical resistance level @ 1.7050 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) that was seen on the Monthly chart has been shown here, so as for us to fully grasp its proximity to the current price level: it’s not too far away, so, again, please let’s keep this critical resistance in mind.

On the H4 chart (attached), since yesterday, price has doggedly continued its rally – refusing to relax enough for any significant retracement; hence, the green horizontal line @ 1.6471, which highlights the most recent swing low has not budged since last week Friday (or since last month, so to speak). While all these sustain our bias in favor of an upward price move, as indicated by the most recent candles formations (a doji and an inside candle), we are probably about to experience a major downward retracement. Though the higher time frames support going Long, let’s be careful about taking a Long position for now.
The beauty of this particular method – discussed in this thread – is that the Hourly higher-high-higher-low parameter (and vice versa), to a very good extent, prevents us from making a right move at the wrong time.

In all, our analyses on the Monthly, Daily, and H4 charts support Long trades; but, again, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today’s up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #176
  • Aug 4, 2009 5:32am Aug 4, 2009 5:32am
On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 94.57 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. This automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. As a complementary signal, price closed below a strong upward trend-line – as shown on the chart.
The white horizontal line @ 95.44 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 94.34. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 94.89 and 95.44 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 95.44 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid. Our primary profit target is @ 94.05 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 94.34 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent Hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a number of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 50% ret. @ 94.89;
fib 61.8% ret. @ 95.02;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 95.21.

Initial Stop Loss @ 95.46; primary Profit target @ 94.05 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Please keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY - 15min 040809.gif Size: 30 KB
Attached Images
  • #177
  • Aug 4, 2009 8:24am Aug 4, 2009 8:24am
Here's what i think of EU today.

Thank God y/day wasnt bad at all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr.gif Size: 22 KB
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God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #178
  • Aug 4, 2009 10:42am Aug 4, 2009 10:42am
Quoting D liberators
Here's what i think of EU today.

Thank God y/day wasnt bad at all.
D liberators, you're quite right. I think your approach is nice for a longer term trade.
  • #179
  • Aug 4, 2009 11:37am Aug 4, 2009 11:37am
Quoting Tunji
D liberators, you're quite right. I think your approach is nice for a longer term trade.
Thanks Tunji.

4hrs and daily trades are indeed long term (in most cases), but i like trading 1hr off daily and 4hr trend direction.

Today's been dull, thats why posted the higher tf signal, perhaps we might get some action from there. (sorry if its not meeting your intraday strategy approach-just say so and i'll remove the posting)
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #180
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:43pm Aug 4, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting D liberators
Thanks Tunji.

4hrs and daily trades are indeed long term (in most cases), but i like trading 1hr off daily and 4hr trend direction.

Today's been dull, thats why posted the higher tf signal, perhaps we might get some action from there. (sorry if its not meeting your intraday strategy approach-just say so and i'll remove the posting)
D liberators, there’s no need to remove your posting at all. While you’re right that your analysis didn’t align with the primary method discussed on this thread, I’ll always appreciate your comments – and everybody’s comments. They all make us better traders.

Actually, the reason I would like us to keep the focus of this thread, as much as possible, is to aid our individual consistency.
Most traders, including me, struggle with consistency due to the random nature of the markets, or, to put it in another way, the limitless ways the markets express themselves – testing our patience and discipline in the process.
Over and over again, successful veteran and professional traders advocate consistency. Most of them have more than one trading strategy, but I believe they didn’t familiarize themselves with all the strategies at once.

@ All

I hope you all understand: your complementary inputs are deeply appreciated. Please let’s keep learning and keep taking these steps together – one at a time.

And, I apologize for this wordy post.
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