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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #781
  • Jul 30, 2009 7:37am Jul 30, 2009 7:37am
while watching the 5m, saw this on the 1h, just one more chart to show it works on other timeframes too. just have to learn to do it.
in fact i traded a few times before on the 15m when the signal show up, then i just switched from 5m to 15m, just a little slower.
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  • #782
  • Jul 30, 2009 9:42am Jul 30, 2009 9:42am
1 losing trade
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  • #783
  • Jul 30, 2009 10:11am Jul 30, 2009 10:11am
15m trade, -8.
anyone see anything why my trades should not be taken today? thx.
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  • #784
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:18am Jul 30, 2009 11:18am
Quoting dhh
15m trade, -8.
anyone see anything why my trades should not be taken today? thx.
neither one broke?
  • #785
  • Jul 30, 2009 11:51am Jul 30, 2009 11:51am
Quoting dhh
15m trade, -8.
anyone see anything why my trades should not be taken today? thx.
In your chart, the trend is not down, its up. That downward move was not a trend move, it was just a spike against the main trend.

Here is a better example of a trend:
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  • #786
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:19pm Jul 30, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting Icehocey77
neither one broke?
i see. i wait for pa break on daily. on the 5min, it seems too quick and not enough time to work with orders. i guess i should start practice driving on the highway. thx.
  • #787
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:26pm Jul 30, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting Icehocey77
neither one broke?
There is no time in 5Min for that really.

@dhh

The first one - I think you were unlucky here, I would not have worried about that one. Especially with the /xx50 being on your side.

The second one - Market was way too sideways here, when the 50sma and 21 ema are close like that, and theres chop to the left then thats a sign to keep out.
  • #788
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:27pm Jul 30, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting vijay s.
In your chart, the trend is not down, its up. That downward move was not a trend move, it was just a spike against the main trend.

Here is a better example of a trend:
point taken vijay. and yes the trend is not one of better looking.

just to show what i saw at the time(chart below). it went from upper BB to lower BB, and making lower lows/highs.
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  • #789
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:29pm Jul 30, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting Jigsaw
There is no time in 5Min for that really.

@dhh

The first one - I think you were unlucky here, I would not have worried about that one. Especially with the /xx50 being on your side.

The second one - Market was way too sideways here, when the 50sma and 21 ema are close like that, and theres chop to the left then thats a sign to keep out.
Trading with FXCM, you can literally plop in an order almost instantly. Going to be switching to IB, hopefully they allow for such quick maneuvers.
  • #790
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:37pm Jul 30, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting Jlr
Trading with FXCM, you can literally plop in an order almost instantly. Going to be switching to IB, hopefully they allow for such quick maneuvers.
I am with Alpari UK, on limit orders I get slipped in a harsh way.

IB as in Interactive brokers ? I heard they were robbery in terms of commission ?
  • #791
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:40pm Jul 30, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting Jigsaw
I am with Alpari UK, on limit orders I get slipped in a harsh way.

IB as in Interactive brokers ? I heard they were robbery in terms of commission ?
Really? I hear they charge on gbp/usd 1.5-2.5, with a commission of 3.50. Friend said if I call them up I can get the commish dropped to 1.75. I don't think they are a deal at all, but I love their wide variety of things to trade. I want to check out forex futures, I've been told they are the ultimate discount in terms of spread, with a flat 3.50 per trade.... not sure if I understood correctly though, guess I'll see.

How does slippage work? I guess I don't experience that trading with a bucket shop
  • #792
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:44pm Jul 30, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting Jigsaw
There is no time in 5Min for that really.

@dhh

The first one - I think you were unlucky here, I would not have worried about that one. Especially with the /xx50 being on your side.

The second one - Market was way too sideways here, when the 50sma and 21 ema are close like that, and theres chop to the left then thats a sign to keep out.
jigsaw, so can i assume you also enter after the pin closed? wait for pa break on higher timeframe is right. but on the 5min, due to its execution-related, it seems either way has its advantages. the spread plus the break, its a good fraction of the pips already on the 5min.

but i remember ryan 'wait for it to goes its way then enter'(something like that) when he was trading 5min. there must be reasons if he was doing it for 9 years.

ryan,
if you see this, can you tell us how you did it?
thx.
  • #793
  • Jul 30, 2009 12:56pm Jul 30, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting dhh
point taken vijay. and yes the trend is not one of better looking.

just to show what i saw at the time(chart below). it went from upper BB to lower BB, and making lower lows/highs.
I think the problem is there isn't enough history there to determine the trend. I think these setups should only be taken in a CLEAR trend. If the trend is not clear, I wouldn't take it, unless there was serious DIV building up. In your chart, I see what you mean by the HH, LL, but there isn't enough data there to say its trending in the direction. It looks more like chop to me. I just think more bars are required to interpret a "trend".

Just my $.02 as I'm still experimenting with this. I think initially its better to wait for the setups that just scream "TRADE ME"

On more thing is that trends build up very smoothly..when you see rapid price change in 1 or 2 bars, that should be interpreted as spikes, not trend moves.

Attached is an example of a setup I took yesterday during the Tokyo session. Notice how the up move up is smooth and steady after the initial push.
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  • #794
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:00pm Jul 30, 2009 1:00pm
Agree completely, and that was a very nice trade in my opinion

Quoting vijay s.
I think the problem is there isn't enough history there to determine the trend. I think these setups should only be taken in a CLEAR trend. If the trend is not clear, I wouldn't take it, unless there was serious DIV building up. In your chart, I see what you mean by the HH, LL, but there isn't enough data there to say its trending in the direction. It looks more like chop to me. I just think more bars are required to interpret a "trend".

Just my $.02 as I'm still experimenting with this. I think initially its better to wait for the setups that...
  • #795
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:09pm Jul 30, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting dhh

just to show what i saw at the time(chart below). it went from upper BB to lower BB, and making lower lows/highs.
Just to show what my analysis would be seeing that chart. Again, not criticizing, just offering my opinion.

So based on my analysis, I would be looking for dips to go long, not short. I give a lot of weight to the "time" factor... if 12hrs show the pair moving up, I would interpret dips down as retracements not a down trend. I would need to see the low/support getting broken and then retested to start thinking about trend change. Trends are very powerful
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  • #796
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:24pm Jul 30, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting Jlr
Really? I hear they charge on gbp/usd 1.5-2.5, with a commission of 3.50. Friend said if I call them up I can get the commish dropped to 1.75. I don't think they are a deal at all, but I love their wide variety of things to trade. I want to check out forex futures, I've been told they are the ultimate discount in terms of spread, with a flat 3.50 per trade.... not sure if I understood correctly though, guess I'll see.

How does slippage work? I guess I don't experience that trading with a bucket shop
I love their wide variety of things to trade too. Once MB Futures has their Metatrader working fine I'll transfer my main account to MB F, then I'll get some money together for an IB account mostly for shares.

IB need a minimum account of 10k don't they ?


Well I get slipped all the time on Alpari.co.uk, it's just down to Market conditions I guess if I put a buy stop or sell limit in, then price hits it Ill get slipped by a few pips into the next available price or whatever.

Alpari doesn't like me put in orders for 5min pinbars to break anyway.


The advantage to entering on a break on the higher timeframes is that orderflow will be accumulated along with your own order underneath the pin or whatever on the Daily, on the 5Min this is not really a concern because that orderflow build up won't exist. It's like why inside 4Bars and Master candles work.

I always enter 2seconds before a candle closes, because I get requoted a lot too and it takes me aaaaaaaaaaaaggggggggggggggeeeeeeeeeees to get an order in on Alpari UK.


Quoting vijay s.
Just to show what my analysis would be seeing that chart. Again, not criticizing, just offering my opinion.

So based on my analysis, I would be looking for dips to go long, not short. I give a lot of weight to the "time" factor... if 12hrs show the pair moving up, I would interpret dips down as retracements not a down trend. I would need to see the low/support getting broken and then retested to start thinking about trend change. Trends are very powerful
Agree, good post also
  • #797
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:31pm Jul 30, 2009 1:31pm
I have a question about risk and trade management for those of you that are trading this.

How are you managing the majority if your trades? I realize that you have to be a little discretionary sometimes, but I'm curious what most are doing, or at least what your "plan" is most of the time.

Are you going for minimum 1:1, and then going to BE there and looking for 1:2? Do you take full profits at 1:1 most of the time?

I notice that most people say they maintain over 60% winrate long term with this style of trading, so 1:1 should definitely be sufficient at making profits. But of course we are trying to maximize profits.

My own spreadsheet is showing about 65-66% winrate, but I haven't been doing this long enough for that to be statistically robust enough to rely on.
  • #798
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:31pm Jul 30, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting Jigsaw
I love their wide variety of things to trade too. Once MB Futures has their Metatrader working fine I'll transfer my main account to MB F, then I'll get some money together for an IB account mostly for shares.

IB need a minimum account of 10k don't they ?


Well I get slipped all the time on Alpari.co.uk, it's just down to Market conditions I guess if I put a buy stop or sell limit in, then price hits it Ill get slipped by a few pips into the next available price or whatever.

Alpari doesn't like me put in orders for 5min pinbars to break anyway....
Ouch, sounds like alpari UK sucks hehe.

I agree completely about the advantages of playing breaks on higher TF's, but I notice the probabilities go up greatly even by waiting for the break on the 5 min. I realize a few pips are given up, but I think it more then accounts for it. I don't think the order flow is as great on the 5 min, but I'd bet there are still quite a few that will play the breaks.... they have to.... I really think its more profitable, at least in my short 3 month experience trading this.

Ya IB is 10k minimum, I had to start playing cards again to scrap together enough cash (not really big balling hehe).
  • #799
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:39pm Jul 30, 2009 1:39pm
I'll generally do just that, goto cost at 1:1, aim for 1:2, depends on a lot of factors... time of day, spacing, perhaps even my mood. I honestly don't know what is best, something I think about daily, but I think as long as you are taking 1:1 at least, you should do fine. I'm pretty picky, only 3 trades so far this week, but I've been getting about 70-80 percent (not sure exactly), maybe even a tad higher. That trade you pointed out was one of the 3 I took this week I think a more aggressive style might be more profitable, but I prefer to sacrifice some bucks made, to attain a higher winrate, just keeps me more emotionally in balance.
I think trying to trade perfectly might possible drive you insane.

Quoting vijay s.
I have a question about risk and trade management for those of you that are trading this.

How are you managing the majority if your trades? I realize that you have to be a little discretionary sometimes, but I'm curious what most are doing, or at least what your "plan" is most of the time.

Are you going for minimum 1:1, and then going to BE there and looking for 1:2? Do you take full profits at 1:1 most of the time?

I notice that most people say they maintain over 60% winrate long term with this style of trading, so 1:1 should definitely be...
  • #800
  • Jul 30, 2009 1:42pm Jul 30, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting vijay s.
I have a question about risk and trade management for those of you that are trading this.

How are you managing the majority if your trades? I realize that you have to be a little discretionary sometimes, but I'm curious what most are doing, or at least what your "plan" is most of the time.

Are you going for minimum 1:1, and then going to BE there and looking for 1:2? Do you take full profits at 1:1 most of the time?

I notice that most people say they maintain over 60% winrate long term with this style of trading, so 1:1 should definitely...
I nearly always set my R:R at a fixed 1:4. I am that kind of a trader though I generally like big winners and small losers. Risk of .3 - .5% per trade.

Quoting Jlr
Ouch, sounds like alpari UK sucks hehe.

I agree completely about the advantages of playing breaks on higher TF's, but I notice the probabilities go up greatly even by waiting for the break on the 5 min. I realize a few pips are given up, but I think it more then accounts for it. I don't think the order flow is as great on the 5 min, but I'd bet there are still quite a few that will play the breaks.... they have to.... I really think its more profitable, at least in my short 3 month experience trading this.

Ya IB is 10k minimum, I had to...
Yeah the probability still goes up on the break I agree. I just hate getting slipped/requoted I guess.

All lies bro, I know your ballin'
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