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waf_1988 Trade Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 20, 2012 11:31pm Jun 30, 2009 5:30pm | Edited Mar 20, 2012 11:31pm
This is a trading journal, just in case if I'm looking for reasons.
I'll focus my trading in USD/JPY pair...
Hello World
  • #2
  • Edited 6:37pm Jun 30, 2009 5:51pm | Edited 6:37pm
Dear journal,


Today, I noticed that there is a formation of bearish signal from a daily chart. After analyzing the chart, I'm sure that the formation has been formed quite a while.
Having this condition, then a sorting opportunity is captured just by analyzing the technical analysis. Afterwards, I checked the site for current news that affects USD/JPY and the following points are the summary:

 

  1. JPY

    1. Prelim Industrial Production m/m is WTA

    1. Retail Sales y/y is WTA

    1. Manufacturing PMI is AE

    1. Household Spending y/y is BTA

    1. Unemployment Rate is AE

    1. Average Cash Earnings y/y is BTA
    2. Housing Starts y/y is WTA

 

  1. USD

    1. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is BTA
    2. Chicago PMI is BTA
    3. CB Consumer Confidence is WTA

Based on the fundamental analysis, the USD is more stable but is subject to negative news while JPY is not positive from the beginning. Having all information capped as of today, I can tell that a retracement is on due for pair USD/JPY since the pair is in bearish movement but fundamental data seems not really supporting at the moment. Keeping an eye of shorting opportunity for the pair is more likely so I take the chance and short the pair just now. Check out the attachment for clearer look on the pair when I take the short.

Open Position:
Short @ 96.29 ; S/L [96.60 - 97.00] ; T/P 95.60

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade_1.JPG Size: 103 KB
Hello World
  • #3
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:45pm Jun 30, 2009 9:45pm
The pair shoots the sky after positive sound from China... Don't know that the market is expecting this kind of news affecting the pair... What a shame....TT





July 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen weakened against the euro and the dollar after a report showed China’s manufacturing expanded for a fourth month, damping demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency.
The yen also fell against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies after an Australian report showed retail sales climbed for a third month, giving investors more confidence to purchase higher-yielding assets. South Korea’s won gained for a second day as a government report showed exports fell at the slowest pace in eight months, adding to signs the global recession is easing.
“China’s PMI seems to be having a negative impact on the yen,” said Akira Hoshino, chief manager of the foreign-exchange trading department in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest lender by market value. “Risk-taking appetite appears to be returning a bit. The yen is being sold.”
The yen fell to 135.80 per euro as of 10:41 a.m. in Tokyo from 135.21 in New York yesterday. It weakened to 96.95 per dollar from 96.36. The U.S. currency traded at $1.4007 versus the euro from $1.4033. The won advanced 0.2 percent to 1,271 versus the dollar.
China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.2 in June from 53.1 in May, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.
Hello World
  • #4
  • Jul 1, 2009 6:17am Jul 1, 2009 6:17am
As the consequence of setting S/L [96.60 - 97.00], the trade was stopped-out of the market. It's a bad trade, knowledge taken.
Hello World
  • #5
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:46pm Jul 1, 2009 9:46pm
As I waiting for the release of US payroll data tomorrow, there is some data that may affect the tomorrow's probable outcome:

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is WTA
ISM Manufacturing PMI is AE
Pending Home Sales m/m is WTA
Construction Spending m/m is WTA
ISM Manufacturing Prices is BTA
Crude Oil Inventories is AE
Total Vehicle Sales is AE

Those data supports what I previously stated about the likelihood of USD to get negative data.
Hello World
  • #6
  • Edited 1:37am Jul 6, 2009 1:33am | Edited 1:37am
As of writing, the USD/JPY is now quoted @ 95.40 level, which is the level that I was targeting in the first place...
I'm not really amused to the news affection on the pair, I should have moved the S/L level to 50% - 61% Fibonacci Retracement (around 97.25-97.60 as of previous open trade) instead of ranging the S/L and T/P in between 38.2 - 50%...

I will do better in the next trade perhaps....
Hello World
  • #7
  • Jul 20, 2009 2:58am Jul 20, 2009 2:58am
After a strike of positive data from US, the pair rebounds from 91.xx level and now is traded in level 94.xx
Using my setup, I got the picture of the pair approaching 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and yet, I doesn't (at the moment of writing)...

Traded short for the pair:
OP: 94.65
TP: 93.17
SL: 95.60
Attached Image
Hello World
  • #8
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:24am Jul 22, 2009 10:24am
TP @ 93.17 is hit today, nice profit for 158.85 points, kind of "healing" for my previous loss (-73.20 @ SL).. So, overall, I still have profit 85.09 pips nett.
Nice trade, and nice call for position actually, now I'm off the market, waiting for the next opportunity.
Happy trading...

Quoting waf_1988
After a strike of positive data from US, the pair rebounds from 91.xx level and now is traded in level 94.xx
Using my setup, I got the picture of the pair approaching 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and yet, I doesn't (at the moment of writing)...

Traded short for the pair:
OP: 94.65
TP: 93.17
SL: 95.60
Hello World
  • #9
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:39pm Jul 22, 2009 9:39pm
It seems that after yesterday's low @ around 93.08, USD/JPY is now retracing back to 94.xx level (again)... Kind of tricky, I decided to stay off the market and watch for a breakout since the level is proven strong enough to hold the pair in range...
Hello World
  • #10
  • Jul 23, 2009 9:53am Jul 23, 2009 9:53am
I think that the USD/JPY is now in overbought.. I'll stay away from this US session and look for another chance of entering the market...^^
Happy trading...
Hello World
  • #11
  • Jul 27, 2009 10:55am Jul 27, 2009 10:55am
I think that my 50% Fibonacci serves as a good resistance in which holding the pair for a while until recently... I'll try to short the pair for some pips but if the market wants to prove me wrong, I have my stop loss set. I'll be watching this trade closely, I'll set two target profit points:

OP = 95.30 ; 94.47
TP = 94.96
SL = 96.00

Kind of weird to open a short after good data from US (Nice new home sales just been released around 2 hours ago).
I'll take this chance anyway...^^
Attached Image
Hello World
  • #12
  • Jul 28, 2009 8:02am Jul 28, 2009 8:02am
My TP is hit today @ 94.96 without me needing to extend my profit to 94.47 level. The low today is around 94.37. This proves that my 50% Fibonacci level is really a good resistance in hourly time frame. I'm off now and still looking for another chance to enter the market.
Happy trading....


Quoting waf_1988
I think that my 50% Fibonacci serves as a good resistance in which holding the pair for a while until recently... I'll try to short the pair for some pips but if the market wants to prove me wrong, I have my stop loss set. I'll be watching this trade closely, I'll set two target profit points:

OP = 95.30 ; 94.47
TP = 94.96
SL = 96.00

Kind of weird to open a short after good data from US (Nice new home sales just been released around 2 hours ago).
I'll take this chance anyway...^^
Hello World
  • #13
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:45pm Jul 29, 2009 12:45pm
Kind of ranging position now... I must not enter any position at this point...

Will wait for a clearer break....
Happy trading...
Hello World
  • #14
  • Edited 11:16am Aug 3, 2009 11:15am | Edited 11:16am
The pair looks really indecisive at the moment of writing, kind of fundamentally bulls but the current bear pressure is still imminent...

Anyway, I'm looking for a possible new bull trend for the pair...

OP = 95.25
TP = 95.90 ; 96.50
SL = 94.00

I'd say that this trade is kind of insecure because even though the fundamental data is supporting, and my entry time-frame chart's closed above my 50% Fibonacci level, the daily chart hasn't been closed above the said level.

If the pair manages to close the chart above 50% Fibonacci level, I'd be assured that it will manage to reach at least my 61.8% Fibonacci @ around 95.95
Attached Image
Hello World
  • #15
  • Aug 4, 2009 12:09pm Aug 4, 2009 12:09pm
Closed @ 95.37 just now... Too much pressure on the pair (current bear is keeping the pair on track...). I could have been stopped out today, lucky me that the pair just stopped going down @ around 94.3x...
Will have to wait for another chance...

Quoting waf_1988
The pair looks really indecisive at the moment of writing, kind of fundamentally bulls but the current bear pressure is still imminent...

Anyway, I'm looking for a possible new bull trend for the pair...

OP = 95.25
TP = 95.90 ; 96.50
SL = 94.00

I'd say that this trade is kind of insecure because even though the fundamental data is supporting, and my entry time-frame chart's closed above my 50% Fibonacci level, the daily chart hasn't been closed above the said level.

If the pair manages to close the chart above 50% Fibonacci level, I'd be assured...
Hello World
  • #16
  • Aug 9, 2009 1:27am Aug 9, 2009 1:27am
Wow.... I was right... The pair shot to 97.49... Just near my TP @ 96.50 level... I should have kept the trade open instead of taking heart-attack into account... Never mind....


Quoting waf_1988
Closed @ 95.37 just now... Too much pressure on the pair (current bear is keeping the pair on track...). I could have been stopped out today, lucky me that the pair just stopped going down @ around 94.3x...
Will have to wait for another chance...
Quoting waf_1988
The pair looks really indecisive at the moment of writing, kind of fundamentally bulls but the current bear pressure is still imminent...

Anyway, I'm looking for a possible new bull trend for the pair...

OP = 95.25
TP = 95.90 ; 96.50
SL = 94.00

I'd say that this trade is kind of insecure because even though the fundamental data is supporting, and my entry time-frame chart's closed above my 50% Fibonacci level, the daily chart hasn't been closed above the said level.

If the pair manages to close the chart above 50% Fibonacci level, I'd be assured...
Hello World
  • #17
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:34pm Mar 20, 2012 11:34pm
Long time no post.. Guess I was kinda busy with my trades and have no time to post to my own journal.

I'd like to start posting again, now with a new broker. I switched from IBFX to OANDA, with same old same old strategy, proven levels, and supply and demand.

Let's see how far I can perform with the new broker, trade explorer is also activated, let come what may
Hello World
  • #18
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:54am Mar 22, 2012 10:54am
Long EUR/GBP @0.83342 - Closed @0.83363
Short USD/CHF @0.91405 - Closed @0.91270
Hello World
  • #19
  • Mar 23, 2012 8:06am Mar 23, 2012 8:06am
Short EUR/USD @1.3229 - Closed @1.3226
Long EUR/GBP @0.8361 - Closed @0.8363
Short USD/CHF @0.9100 - Closed @0.9094
Hello World
  • #20
  • Mar 23, 2012 9:10am Mar 23, 2012 9:10am
I have a concern about strength divergence. I must read more about this trading divergence and how they react to a pair.

Questions remain:
- How divergence affecting a pair?
- Is it always a lagging indicator?
- In what term should I put my concern if I see the divergence?
Hello World
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