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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,401
  • Jul 28, 2009 2:03pm Jul 28, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting 11andy11
GenTarkin, so your trading a system that you are predicting will lose?
naw just being pessimistic is all. I hope for the best =) go short!!!
  • #1,402
  • Jul 28, 2009 4:08pm Jul 28, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting normal guy
Candle size +- 20pips (buffer) = box size
Candle size low 1.5000, high 1.5100 = 100 pips
Box size = 100 pips + 40 (buffer) pips = 140 pips (+- 20 pips on each sides).

Regards.
Thanks,

I appreciate the clarification.

Tom
  • #1,403
  • Jul 28, 2009 5:04pm Jul 28, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting Tdp
How did you know that the volume is low when it hit the resistance, any indicator you use ? Please show us the chart.

Thanks.
Hi Tdp,

I am using "Waddah_Attar_Explosion", a custome indicator which downloaded from FF, plus OBV to check on the volume change. As you can see from my attached chart, the buy volume is getting less and change colour to red (sell); by that time, OBV also moving downward. it mean selling volume is increasing. However, it ur own decision during this time whether to keep it on or take what ever it is good, as long as it is +ve figure or take the minimum lost, don't hope, trade along with the trend.

Btw, from my previous post, I said short is getting strong and breakout because it break the main trend line, BB is opened and parabolic sar is showing down trend. so, it seem down trend is happening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 207 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Waddah_Attar_Explosion.ex4   9 KB | 466 downloads
  • #1,404
  • Jul 28, 2009 6:38pm Jul 28, 2009 6:38pm
I am not sure if I am on to something since this is my first week testing this. Like many I got this indicator from FF. I am not sure how it works but so far this week, look how it has bounce off the channel and I put both take profit on the top and bottom of the channel and both has resulted in profit....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,405
  • Jul 28, 2009 7:19pm Jul 28, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting hytten
I am not sure if I am on to something since this is my first week testing this. Like many I got this indicator from FF. I am not sure how it works but so far this week, look how it has bounce off the channel and I put both take profit on the top and bottom of the channel and both has resulted in profit....

Do you know the name of the indicator ? or attach it here and we might be able to tell you more about it.

Looks like one of the channel indicators

Cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,406
  • Jul 28, 2009 7:53pm Jul 28, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting garfield75
Do you know the name of the indicator ? or attach it here and we might be able to tell you more about it.
Here it is
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SHI_Channel_true.ex4   6 KB | 767 downloads
  • #1,407
  • Jul 28, 2009 8:56pm Jul 28, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting hytten
Here it is
I think may be can put it on 1 min chart and you will see the changes of the indicator because changes in hourly chart is so slow until you din't notice how the line move. Any way, it is just for your reference.
  • #1,408
  • Jul 28, 2009 11:43pm Jul 28, 2009 11:43pm
Hi guyz,

I found some info on GJ on FF, good to have a look. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...6691&page=1004.
  • #1,409
  • Jul 29, 2009 6:52am Jul 29, 2009 6:52am
My short has closed for a loss at the other side of the box. I had one BE and one loss this week.
  • #1,410
  • Jul 29, 2009 8:50am Jul 29, 2009 8:50am
Quoting wrenski
My short has closed for a loss at the other side of the box. I had one BE and one loss this week.
This current market is not good for Ace's system. We may have to wait until September. Be careful.

dr
  • #1,411
  • Jul 29, 2009 9:12am Jul 29, 2009 9:12am
I canceled my short because I did not like the wave movement. I will try again next week.

Is august a bad month for forex? anyone?
  • #1,412
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:01am Jul 29, 2009 11:01am
Quoting calderone
I canceled my short because I did not like the wave movement. I will try again next week.

Is august a bad month for forex? anyone?

It might be a slow month not necessariliy bad month for trading as long as you know how to manage your trade. 368 pips this week on G/J and E/J.

I follow ACE system for entry blindly, becuase it give me a great entry setup. Exit is based on my rules, which lets me make pips on regular basis.

Cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,413
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:30am Jul 29, 2009 11:30am
Quoting garfield75
It might be a slow month not necessariliy bad month for trading as long as you know how to manage your trade. 368 pips this week on G/J and E/J.

I follow ACE system for entry blindly, becuase it give me a great entry setup. Exit is based on my rules, which lets me make pips on regular basis.

Cheers
Garfield
Garfield,

Please share your exit strategy...

Thanks,
Bob
  • #1,414
  • Jul 29, 2009 11:47am Jul 29, 2009 11:47am
Quoting Bobcat2
Garfield,

Please share your exit strategy...

Thanks,
Bob

black - entry
red - s/l
blue - tp1

as for G/j u can see that the resistance for previous weeks as it when up to test it. is either it break it for fail to break it or ranging there.

in this case, a Tp1 could be set just below the resistance and let tp2 or tp3 to run if it break the resistance.

unforturnately. it fail to break the resistance. but tp1 is hit if u set @ the resistance. same goes for e/j

hope tat helps~
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 163 KB
trade safe
  • #1,415
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:03pm Jul 29, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting garfield75
It might be a slow month not necessariliy bad month for trading as long as you know how to manage your trade. 368 pips this week on G/J and E/J.

I follow ACE system for entry blindly, becuase it give me a great entry setup. Exit is based on my rules, which lets me make pips on regular basis.

Cheers
Garfield
Good man.

I am more focused on the risk side. You certainly have prospered on the Reward side.

I am sure you put a lot of personal knowledge into your trades but what indicators do you use.

Dave R.
  • #1,416
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:22pm Jul 29, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting zz_zhang
black - entry
red - s/l
blue - tp1

as for G/j u can see that the resistance for previous weeks as it when up to test it. is either it break it for fail to break it or ranging there.

in this case, a Tp1 could be set just below the resistance and let tp2 or tp3 to run if it break the resistance.

unforturnately. it fail to break the resistance. but tp1 is hit if u set @ the resistance. same goes for e/j

hope tat helps~

It really helps - I did the same thing even dhough i made a mistake of reentering on EJ after being stopped out at BE. One questions - to establish S and R are you usng a specific indicator or just simple drawing? Also do you look at the indicators in the bottom?

Cheers,
  • #1,417
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:47pm Jul 29, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting geribosi
It really helps - I did the same thing even dhough i made a mistake of reentering on EJ after being stopped out at BE. One questions - to establish S and R are you usng a specific indicator or just simple drawing? Also do you look at the indicators in the bottom?

Cheers,

personally, for my opinion i prefer using clean chart w/o indis to see and draw the TL, Support N resistance.

On larger TF, this line are definitely stronger den smaller tf.

this indis on my chart are for diff system. i din apply on tis system though.

waiting for next wk trade. hope it will be a good one
trade safe
  • #1,418
  • Jul 29, 2009 12:59pm Jul 29, 2009 12:59pm
I think we got some good advice from the previous posts. I will try again and will manage my trade-all the time watching key resistance areas. Do not let your pips slip away.
  • #1,419
  • Jul 29, 2009 2:25pm Jul 29, 2009 2:25pm
I would like to present a concept different from my trading plan and more in line with Ace's method.

This is plain mathematics, not a new trading stategy. Lets look at the input parameters for this basic analysis. Lets assume the following:

1. the average box is 100 pips. I know it is normally bigger but the mathematics still apply and this makes it easier to calculate my analysis.

2. If I remember the thread numbers, Ace says that with a TP3 standard take profit multiplier, wins 46% of the time on average. Lets say it is 50%

3. Basic premise, let trade run to Friday or TP3 whichever occurs first.

4. Stop loss would be 100 pips in this example.

So, if we apply risk/reward it is 1:3. If we lose 3 times out of four entries, we breakeven. ie one win of 300 pips versus 3, 100 pip loses.

If we win 2 times out of 4 on average based on history, we win 600 pips on two wins, minus 2, 100 pip losses for 400 pips net profit for every four trades on average (assuming TP3 is hit on each winning trade).

Lets assume we use a 5% risk of original capital. Also, lets assume $10 per pip to make calculation easy. If we have $20,000 in account, 5% is $1,000. 1 Lot times 100 pips times $10 is $1000. So we trade 1 Lot

Ok, here is the question. If we used a higher risk %, what is the best box multiplier for TP. In other words, Ace suggest TP3 gives the best profit. But what if TP1.5 is reached 3 times more often than TP3. If we increased our risk to 7.5% (1.5 Lots) and used TP1.5 we could be far far ahead in profit as our win rate would go from 50% to 70 to 80%. Even if we still had a 50% win rate, we would make the same money with a lower TP because our Lot size was propotionally higher. If our win rate went up to 70% or 80%, obviously we would gain more profit than the original method.

Apparently Ace and others have back test data back to 2005. If we applied this logic, it may prove to be far more profitable than trying to win 300 to 500 pips on each trade. Maybe 150 can be reached way more often and we just increase our risk percent.

Just some thoughts. Backtesting for the most often hit pip profit is essential. Again, just mathematics based on risk/reward. I would also assume, a different SL may be essential.

Dave R.
  • #1,420
  • Jul 29, 2009 5:51pm Jul 29, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Garfield,

Please share your exit strategy...

Thanks,
Bob
Hi Bob,

My exit strategy is quite simple. SL moved to BE for all open postion once TP1 is hit.

No indicators just Price Action.

Cheers
Garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
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