Unfortunately, as you’ve probably known already, because I always employ overlapping fibs and 61.8% or 78.6% fib retracements, I wouldn’t have taken the trade – even if I was in the market. During such moments, I always need extra grace not to scold myself for identifying a lovely trade set-up and discarding it because it didn’t meet my parameters; but at least it’s helping me to be a consistent trader.
Hi Lefteye, hope my previous replies were satisfactory?
This GBPUSD is a nice set-up – though I don’t know how it looks on the Hourly; but assuming you used the Hourly swing lows to draw your fibs, the automatic place where you’ll place your initial Stop Loss is just below the most recent swing low from where you drew the primary/smaller fib. According to your chart, that’ll be at point “b.”
[font=Arial]Also, assuming you got into this trade @ the 78.6% fib ret. level – 1.6458, and your initial SL is just...
Your explanation always meaningful to me.
Thank you for generously sharing and not forgetting your time consuming step by step elaborative guide. Keep up your excellent job.
I know if we keep this thread going, everyone posting here will be mutually benefited.
Cheers!
Dear Tunji ,
Your explanation always meaningful to me.
Thank you for generously sharing and not forgetting your time consuming step by step elaborative guide. Keep up your excellent job.
I know if we keep this thread going, everyone posting here will be mutually benefited.
Cheers!
Right on target again Tunji. I admire the knack for posting detailed analysis (i lack the patience). God bless you.
A look at 1hr tf shows i would av entered earlier from 1hr tf (highlited red arrow pointing up) on a bullish engulfing at 38.2 fib, bt again, it happened during sleeping time.
Am however watching to trade 4hr signal (if it happens), but will be entering from the 1hr tf, provided price retraces to 94.14/18 (marked X) or 93.92/83 where my fibs converges.
What sayeth thou?
"God bless you." amen; thanks.Seems you intend going for Gartley. As long as your’re ok with it, and you’ve got the support confluence, GO RIGHT AHEAD! And bring back the good news.. lol.
Here are my two pips on GBP/USD.
Price on the daily tf is in an upchannel, the lower ramp of that channel. That seems pretty bullish.
How about the 4h tf? Let's looks at tests of 4h swing hi's/lo's to get a directional bias.
The trend on the 4h is still up -- higher highs and lows. But notice that the recent swing high forms a near double top with the prior high. That's potentially pretty bearish. Another case for shorts is the long black candle at 7.24 8:00. (See the red arrow).
Per Tunji's written approach, we need to look to a test of reference points to get a better handle on a bias. Conveniently, price is situated near at least three of 'em. These are circled on the 4h chart.
Two refs are pretty clear but the third might need some explaining. The first is the Fib "short" level, or the Fib62 retrace down. She's already tested that, but may need to do so again.
The next ref point down is the one that might need explaining, b/c I haven't seen other people use it. I call it "X50South." It's the halfway point between the low and the close. I've done many backtests that show X50South and X50North impacting price. I believe these X50s can give us a preview of direction, especially when you watch 5 min bars making support or resistance of a higher TF X50, like daily or 4h.
The last ref point on the 4h is pretty clear: it's the 4h swing low.
I think if price tests at least down to 6409 and closes above, on a 4h bar, a good case for a long could be made. If that test happens, we'd still need to see, per Tunji's ideas, higher highs and lows on the 1 hour.
I welcome comments on this analysis.
Price on the daily tf is in an upchannel, the lower ramp of that channel. That seems pretty bullish.
How about the 4h tf? Let's looks at tests of 4h swing hi's/lo's to get a directional bias.
The trend on the 4h is still up -- higher highs and lows. But notice that the recent swing high forms a near double top with the prior high. That's potentially pretty bearish. Another case for shorts is the long black candle at 7.24 8:00. (See the red arrow).
Per Tunji's written approach, we need to look to a test of reference points to get a better handle on a bias. Conveniently, price is situated near at least three of 'em. These are circled on the 4h chart.
Two refs are pretty clear but the third might need some explaining. The first is the Fib "short" level, or the Fib62 retrace down. She's already tested that, but may need to do so again.
The next ref point down is the one that might need explaining, b/c I haven't seen other people use it. I call it "X50South." It's the halfway point between the low and the close. I've done many backtests that show X50South and X50North impacting price. I believe these X50s can give us a preview of direction, especially when you watch 5 min bars making support or resistance of a higher TF X50, like daily or 4h.
The last ref point on the 4h is pretty clear: it's the 4h swing low.
I think if price tests at least down to 6409 and closes above, on a 4h bar, a good case for a long could be made. If that test happens, we'd still need to see, per Tunji's ideas, higher highs and lows on the 1 hour.
I welcome comments on this analysis.
Joetrece, I quite understand your Daily chart analysis.
Regarding the 4-Hour chart – based on the method I use – the bias is bearish. If you’ll observe closely, the 8th candle to the left (counting from the most recent candle) has got two higher candles on both sides; and that’s what defines the swing low that I use. Hence, the moment price broke below that swing low, our bias on the H4 chart turned bearish.
[font=Arial]Then, about your other analyses (including “X50South”), maybe others might like to chip-in...
All in all, though, I'm working to see setups from your pov. I tend to complicate things.
Thanks again.
