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Silent Service Method

  • #3,801
  • Jul 23, 2009 6:40pm Jul 23, 2009 6:40pm
Quoting dengzhi
w/o drama life would be boring!
Spoken like a True Opportunist.

Da^^ Egos & Ethics! Can I make Money from it?
  • #3,802
  • Jul 23, 2009 6:41pm Jul 23, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Hello CW, i was thinking about something. You mentioned that forex is just part of the equation, that there are many more markets and that charts are all the same. You mentioned you only take the best trades. I agree with it all, it seems very reasonable.


I'm curious about something. if charts are all the same and if the person only trades the charts, the trading opportunities across the different currency pairs/contracts/stocks/etc are virtually endless. So even if a trader only takes the best trades, there will still be many opportunities...
there is a simple method to disprove this..
you cannot trade successfully everyday..
if you did, would you agree that 10% ROI a month should be easily achievable? if so then can you do that every month for the next 20 years?
answer: no.
proof?
does any single person in the world have 1 trillion dollars? no.
if you only start with $500 and every month make 10% ROI, by the end of 20 years you would have over $4 trillion! (500*(1.1^240))
Bill Gates is not even close to that and he's the richest man in the world!
  • #3,803
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:00pm Jul 23, 2009 7:00pm
Quoting dengzhi
there is a simple method to disprove this..
you cannot trade successfully everyday..
if you did, would you agree that 10% ROI a month should be easily achievable? if so then can you do that every month for the next 20 years?
answer: no.
proof?
does any single person in the world have 1 trillion dollars? no.
if you only start with $500 and every month make 10% ROI, by the end of 20 years you would have over $4 trillion! (500*(1.1^240))
Bill Gates is not even close to that and he's the richest man in the world!
You are over simplifying it, once you get to a certain amount its difficult to trade the same way, you trade will move price against you by clearing the order board. Also normally people start to trade less risk and look for lower % returns when their account are larger as 1% a month of 10 million is 100k.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #3,804
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:07pm Jul 23, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting tac
You are over simplifying it, once you get to a certain amount its difficult to trade the same way, you trade will move price against you by clearing the order board. Also normally people start to trade less risk and look for lower % returns when their account are larger as 1% a month of 10 million is 100k.
do you know how big the forex market is?
no single retail trader can move the market. this is not the 80s anymore.
yes it is simplifying it a bit but the concept is sound.
you should read "the market wizards".
these are the richest and best traders in the world and have been successfully been doing it for many many years.. guess what their average returns are?
20-30%... A YEAR..
that is around 2% a month ROI.
  • #3,805
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:10pm Jul 23, 2009 7:10pm
new vid on the blog
  • #3,806
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:11pm Jul 23, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
new vid on the blog
Link is fecked.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #3,807
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:11pm Jul 23, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting Bemac
Wow. that's impressive. I think I need more ...

Chicken Bones and Vodka time to make a descision on if I'm bullish or not.


James Can't Fix This. He can only {at best} bury it.
Are you seriously that pissed or desparate that you want to do this?

You Can Fix This. Preferably before it gets beyond repair.


Perhaps you are looking forward to an audiance of those that are unaware of this {history}. When you inhabit an Unstable Planet, you never know when a volcanic gieser is about to introduce itself to your sphinkter...

Chris, that's not a threat....
I would refer you to your own signature.

Thanks for your input though Be.....
  • #3,808
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:12pm Jul 23, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting tac
Link is fecked.

Right click and "Save As" for some reason the mp4's don't always behave.
  • #3,809
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Hello CW, i was thinking about something. You mentioned that forex is just part of the equation, that there are many more markets and that charts are all the same. You mentioned you only take the best trades. I agree with it all, it seems very reasonable.


I'm curious about something. if charts are all the same and if the person only trades the charts, the trading opportunities across the different currency pairs/contracts/stocks/etc are virtually endless. So even if a trader only takes the best trades, there will still be opportunities every...

Well, to be honest, I have expanded even more lately.....so that number is quite a bit higher. The hardest part is figuring out what part of what market you want to focus on.

Look how many stocks there are in NY....and Hong Kong.....and now cheelu just about has me talked into the TSE!

A lot of charts.....

Oh yeah, there's Forex too.
  • #3,810
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting dengzhi
do you know how big the forex market is?
no single retail trader can move the market. this is not the 80s anymore.
yes it is simplifying it a bit but the concept is sound.
you should read "the market wizards".
these are the richest and best traders in the world and have been successfully been doing it for many many years.. guess what their average returns are?
20-30%... A YEAR..
that is around 2% a month ROI.
Now THAT's achievable!!!
  • #3,811
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm Jul 23, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting dengzhi
there is a simple method to disprove this..
you cannot trade successfully everyday..
if you did, would you agree that 10% ROI a month should be easily achievable? if so then can you do that every month for the next 20 years?
answer: no.
proof?
does any single person in the world have 1 trillion dollars? no.
if you only start with $500 and every month make 10% ROI, by the end of 20 years you would have over $4 trillion! (500*(1.1^240))
Bill Gates is not even close to that and he's the richest man in the world!

Damn, I gotta get on it then.
  • #3,812
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:16pm Jul 23, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting dengzhi
do you know how big the forex market is?
no single retail trader can move the market. this is not the 80s anymore.
yes it is simplifying it a bit but the concept is sound.
you should read "the market wizards".
these are the richest and best traders in the world and have been successfully been doing it for many many years.. guess what their average returns are?
20-30%... A YEAR..
that is around 2% a month ROI.

Very true. I have someone that I trade money for that only wants 1-2% a month......and he's happy.

It's a lot, if you start out with enough - that's the catch.
  • #3,813
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:21pm Jul 23, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting dengzhi
do you know how big the forex market is?
no single retail trader can move the market. this is not the 80s anymore.
yes it is simplifying it a bit but the concept is sound.
you should read "the market wizards".
these are the richest and best traders in the world and have been successfully been doing it for many many years.. guess what their average returns are?
20-30%... A YEAR..
that is around 2% a month ROI.
Yeah I know how big the market is but im not talking about the whole market im talking about one pair one trade in one direction. Are you saying every pair is liquid enough at all times to soak up any size of trade without moving price? As I said once you get the a large account you only need to make a small % to make big money hence they make 20-30% a year.

And Marty Schwartz from Market Wizards made 25% for 10 years........ thats 25% every month!!!!!
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #3,814
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:35pm Jul 23, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
Right click and "Save As" for some reason the mp4's don't always behave.
No I mean clicking on the link takes us to http://www.forexfactory.com/blog.forexfantasies.com. which cannot be found, howeve I cut and past the link text and got it, cheers.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #3,815
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:36pm Jul 23, 2009 7:36pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rakesh_Jhunjhunwala
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #3,816
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:36pm Jul 23, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Hello CW, i was thinking about something. You mentioned that forex is just part of the equation, that there are many more markets and that charts are all the same. You mentioned you only take the best trades. I agree with it all, it seems very reasonable.


I'm curious about something. if charts are all the same and if the person only trades the charts, the trading opportunities across the different currency pairs/contracts/stocks/etc are virtually endless. So even if a trader only takes the best trades, there will still be opportunities every...


Quoting dengzhi
there is a simple method to disprove this..
you cannot trade successfully everyday..
if you did, would you agree that 10% ROI a month should be easily achievable? if so then can you do that every month for the next 20 years?
answer: no.
proof?
does any single person in the world have 1 trillion dollars? no.
if you only start with $500 and every month make 10% ROI, by the end of 20 years you would have over $4 trillion! (500*(1.1^240))
Bill Gates is not even close to that and he's the richest man in the world!

I know that lol. That's why i said that this is just theory, and that's why i said i'd love to hear CW's take on this as he has more experience.

What i want to know is WHY this is not possible (why the 10% per month is not possible/likely for the long term, other than the limits imposed by having too much capital), what barrier am i not seing because i'm only focused on theory? That's why i want to hear from CW and his experience, i want to know what i'm missing.

If there are great setups every day, and if charts are the same in all markets, and given enough time (many hours per day), then it should be very possible to make 10% a month if the account isn't behemothically big.
freedom
  • #3,817
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:45pm Jul 23, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting equilibrium6
I know that lol. That's why i said that this is just theory, and that's why i said i'd love to hear CW's take on this as he has more experience.

What i want to know is WHY this is not possible (why the 10% per month is not possible/likely for the long term, other than the limits imposed by having too much capital), what barrier am i not seing because i'm only focused on theory? That's why i want to hear from CW and his experience, i want to know what i'm missing.

If there are great setups every day, and if charts are the same in all markets,...

Well, one simple answer is that no matter how perfect the set up, shit happens. Here's a perfect example:

I was shorting the USD/CHF on a daily pinbar at 61.8% fib levels. Also, the ten year note was softening up (another form of confluence....oh wait, might get sued for using that word - it's now "synchronicity".)

Then something really, really, annoying happened. The Swiss National Bank decided to do a surprise cut in the middle of the night on me. I got stopped out in about 5 minutes or less. I really thought I was going to do well on the trade. From experience, I normally can tell when a trade at least has a good shot at being something big......and then Roth cuts. Bastard. Didn't he know I was long the Franc?



It just happens. I know that's not a great answer, but it's the one I got.

Chris
  • #3,818
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:57pm Jul 23, 2009 7:57pm
Quoting tac
No I mean clicking on the link takes us to http://www.forexfactory.com/blog.forexfantasies.com. which cannot be found, howeve I cut and past the link text and got it, cheers.

lol, k i will fix it - sorry.
  • #3,819
  • Jul 23, 2009 8:05pm Jul 23, 2009 8:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, one simple answer is that no matter how perfect the set up, shit happens. Here's a perfect example:

I was shorting the USD/CHF on a daily pinbar at 61.8% fib levels. Also, the ten year note was softening up (another form of confluence....oh wait, might get sued for using that word - it's now "synchronicity".)

Then something really, really, annoying happened. The Swiss National Bank decided to do a surprise cut in the middle of the night on me. I got stopped out in about 5 minutes or less. I [i]really thought I was going to do well on...
Ok i get you. Ultimately it's a matter of the risk the trader is willing to take. If he intends to increase his profits he'll have to increase his risk (either by risking more per trade or by leaving more trades open at the same time). it all comes back to the amount the trader is comfortable risking..
freedom
  • #3,820
  • Jul 23, 2009 8:15pm Jul 23, 2009 8:15pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Ok i get you. Ultimately it's a matter of the risk the trader is willing to take. If he intends to increase his profits he'll have to increase his risk (either by risking more per trade or by leaving more trades open at the same time). it all comes back to the amount the trader is comfortable risking..
Comfort and risk are paramount.
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