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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,221
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:28pm Jul 22, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting garfield75
I don't think you are doing anything wrong. I made my pips beaucse I closed most of my postion on G/J, A/J, CAD/J, CHF/J and U/J on TP1. Also moved my SL when price moved to half way mark betweek entry and TP1. My AIM is to protect capital, I might not win but I will definately not lose anything, and that is very important to me.
Next week I will move to TP1 & TP1, but I will always move SL to BE as early as possible.
I know it is not following the system correctly, but this give me peace of mind to trade without stress.

Cheers
Garfield
Thanks Garfield,
I appreciate your response, I was letting it ride as I read ACE"s method. The pairs I used was G/Y and E/j
  • #1,222
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:48pm Jul 22, 2009 5:48pm
For those that are concerned about losing weeks or those just starting this week and witnessing all the chop, please understand something: a loss is to be expected from time to time. I back tested the original system for 2.5 yrs (moving stops to BE after price ran more than 100 pips) and for 2009, this would only be the 6th or 7th losing week. We are more than half way through the year which means that for 2009, this system, with my modification noted above, is running at a %70 success rate, give or take.

Take your losses and understand how to deal with them. Also understand we are in the summer months which is historically choppy price action due to holidays taken by those that really move the market. Don't forget the beauty of this system is catching a big trend. When it happens, all of those trading this system will be ready and rewards of 10x risk will not be unusual if you can manage to hold on for a bit. Your net from a move like that will crap on the S&P 500's avg return for a year.

Good luck!
  • #1,223
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:41pm Jul 22, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting G550
For those that are concerned about losing weeks (moving stops to BE after price ran more than 100 pips), this would only be the 6th or 7th losing week. We are more than half way through the year which means that for 2009, this system, with my modification noted above, is running at a %70 success rate, give or take.

Good luck!
Good Risk and money management is a MUST!
  • #1,224
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:41pm Jul 22, 2009 6:41pm
the games not over yet. Let the trade work. It could just as easily push hard down the next two days.
  • #1,225
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:42pm Jul 22, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting G550
For those that are concerned about losing weeks or those just starting this week and witnessing all the chop, please understand something: a loss is to be expected from time to time. I back tested the original system for 2.5 yrs (moving stops to BE after price ran more than 100 pips) and for 2009, this would only be the 6th or 7th losing week. We are more than half way through the year which means that for 2009, this system, with my modification noted above, is running at a %70 success rate, give or take.

Take your losses and understand how to...
Thanks for your post and that you back tested this for 2 1/2 years.It sure is reassuring but i have still have faith in profitting or at least break even. It is only Wednesay- I got till friday. Right? In case i lose as you said that is part of trading but i will keep on because after reading this whole thread and everybodys input i am covinced it will work out just fine.
  • #1,226
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:01pm Jul 22, 2009 8:01pm
Quote
Just took a look @ your box calculator works real well could you please add GBPJPY to it
Thanks

Hello Bigogator,

All you need to do is change the title and make sure you place gbp/jpy in a box that has 2 decimal places.
If you are asking if I can alter the calculator to include another box, then yes I will put something together later today.
Glad you like it.

Anthony
  • #1,227
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:19pm Jul 22, 2009 8:19pm
Quoting yen44x
Congrats! You must have been trading an adaptation of this system, because the original system hasn't earned 400 pips this week. All the same, well done.
Yen - Have you had any trades over the last two weeks?

W.
  • #1,228
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:31pm Jul 22, 2009 8:31pm
what if our sl or tp doesnt get hit till friday? do we go with the new 4 hour candle next week and make the changes accordingly?
  • #1,229
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:03pm Jul 22, 2009 9:03pm
G/J price is back in the box and I have put in pending order to entry long and short again. Looks like it will go long lets see if it can break Daily R1 at 155.00 and move up.

cheers
garfield
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,230
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:04pm Jul 22, 2009 9:04pm
Hi i new here. I am looking the system which very simple and less maintenance like this system.

I have no experience on back test the system but i willing to do that.

When i read the info, there are 2 type method mainly use here a original and modified. What i am think off which method is more profitable and less maintenance? Are the original or modified. Why this happend?

I need to know how we choose out TP? TP1, TP2, TP3 and TP4? Is any experience people here can tell us? And do you re enter if that week is retracement weeks? the original system is good if we can caught the big movement or fade to be at that week. This is very importance to get 90-95% winning. If we can avoid the retracement week is very helpfull for all.

Thanks

Quoting inferno000
what if our sl or tp doesnt get hit till friday? do we go with the new 4 hour candle next week and make the changes accordingly?
  • #1,231
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:12pm Jul 22, 2009 9:12pm
when i see the movement which breakout the line, it only give 50% it will go long or u turn. It could be the price is oversold or overbuy. If the price is breakout (leave 1 full candle) with strenght not reaching oversold/overbuy level this will give 80% confident that the price will go long.

I observe this almost at the breakout line. any comments.
  • #1,232
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:01pm Jul 22, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting wrenski
Yen - Have you had any trades over the last two weeks?

W.
Yes, all losses per the original system. I failed to post the results last Friday but will do so this week.

I'm looking at some of the adaptations presented here but will continue to post my results on the original system for newcomers to the thread and for any who are sticking to the system as presented in post #1.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,233
  • Edited 10:57pm Jul 22, 2009 10:46pm | Edited 10:57pm
I re enter the price today when the candle is breakout at monday 4H line.

See it will go to TP1 or not (now already at the 40% to TP1). the Stoch give the sign it still a buy movement which now is the asian market open. could be it will hit resistance and bounce back?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #1,234
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:30pm Jul 22, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting pips info
Good Risk and money management is a MUST!
Here's a great post i came across.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=205799&postcount=32

[size=2]
Quote

*I will tell the only way a trader is able to make $1,000,000 from trading.*

Here's an example of 10 thousand trades. Of these trades, you might lose on 6000 of them for small losses, win on 3800 of them for moderate profits, and win fairly big on 200 of them. You make your million from this series of trades by losing only $9 million on your total of losing trades while making $10 million dollars on your total of profitable trades. This means averaging $50 a trade per lot or contract (in the case of futures), which is really good after...
  • #1,235
  • Edited 3:49am Jul 23, 2009 12:59am | Edited 3:49am
Bigogator,

Have attached a new box calculator, it has 4 boxes for 2 decimal place currencies and 4 boxes for 4 decimals. Just change the title currency to suit and change the spread where necessary. Hope that suits what you wanted.

Anthony
  • #1,236
  • Jul 23, 2009 1:02am Jul 23, 2009 1:02am
oops, forgot to attach.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 4H Box Calculation (4).xls   28 KB | 599 downloads
  • #1,237
  • Jul 23, 2009 2:21am Jul 23, 2009 2:21am
Quoting 11andy11
the games not over yet. Let the trade work. It could just as easily push hard down the next two days.
If you are trading the original method, you are finished for the week. Double loss.

I also think that going back in is just gambling. I believe Ace's original method has merit with some modification but simply putting new pendings may be just gambling on an otherwise trending market.

Obviously you may win however I am waiting for the new box on Sunday.

Someone also mentioned that we are in the slow traditional trending period during the summer months and it might be worthwhile to reduce your risk right now.

All this being said, I read the earlier post with a pdf on trading and Thursday is traditionally a good day for trends to begin for GBPJPY. If I am in a trade, I would let it run on Thursday but I would be concerned but entering on Thursday. At least right now. Obviously, if we were in a major long term trend I may consider it.

It will very possibly be a good time for testing the BE, SL and Trailing stop concepts. It has worked for me this week. No profit but no loss. If you traded the flat out original method, you are down about 300 pips depending on your settings.

Finally, with an EA, I would want to run the back test over various periods. Running a two back test, I beleive would be useless. You really need to run backtesting over different periods to see the different variables for each period.

dr
  • #1,238
  • Jul 23, 2009 2:32am Jul 23, 2009 2:32am
Has anyone tried to implement this system on a daily timeframe instead of a weekly one ?

Cheers
Garfield.
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,239
  • Jul 23, 2009 2:51am Jul 23, 2009 2:51am
Quoting garfield75
Has anyone tried to implement this system on a daily timeframe instead of a weekly one ?

Cheers
Garfield.


Yet to get a response.

Maybe you cannot if it is still trendindg from the sunday trade.

Just my opinion.

Maybe it needs to be in another thread if someone starts it.


Smurf
  • #1,240
  • Jul 23, 2009 4:36am Jul 23, 2009 4:36am
My short was stopped out a few hours ago. It was interesting to note that (at some point in the last few days) my unrealised-profits went to 2X on both Long and short. As we speak, if I had taken a third trade (Long this time) then my profits would be back at 2x again.

I was following Ace's original methos of taking profit at 4x, but in this instance, using Drolands trade management would have been a winner.

Would've Could've Should've.....This is all with hindsight

As all the above posters have said, losing is part of the game. and there was a good post above from G550 stating the same. It is a game of stats.

Quote
For those that are concerned about losing weeks or those just starting this week and witnessing all the chop, please understand something: a loss is to be expected from time to time. I back tested the original system for 2.5 yrs (moving stops to BE after price ran more than 100 pips) and for 2009, this would only be the 6th or 7th losing week. We are more than half way through the year which means that for 2009, this system, with my modification noted above, is running at a %70 success rate, give or take

Eagerly awaiting Sunday evening
Just for today, do not worry...
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