Pls. NOTE: As at the time of this posting, price had already rallied. These things happen so fast at times; but for the sake of study, I decided to go ahead and post it. Also NOTE that the rally occurred around the MPC Meetings Minutes news release: trading during news periods could be very risky, so please, if you have to trade, consider reducing your risk.
I’m currently in the trade, but yet to know if it would turn out profitable.
Although, the Daily chart isn’t offering too distinct a pattern to support a Short trade, it isn’t offering much to discourage one either.
On the H4 chart (attached), price recently broke below a swing low @ 1.6382 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line), and that automatically shifts our bias to favor a downward price move. However, let’s keep in mind a critical support level: a Daily chart swing low @ 1.6263 that is also visible on the H4 chart (this we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).
The white horizontal line @ 1.6556 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.6309. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6363 and 1.6417 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6417 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6280 (the 127% fib. ext.).
Also, if price breaks below 1.6309 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.
NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.6263 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break too far below the current price-bottom before retracing upward to the sell-area.
The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these levels and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.
fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.6375;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.6393 (Pls note this level doesn’t look as strong as the 61.8% ret.: the identified resistance levels around it aren’t too close together)
Initial Stop Loss @ 1.6419; primary Profit target @ 1.6280 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).
Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.
Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!
P.S.:
Also, keep in mind the MPC Meeting Minutes news release at 08:30 GMT – be wary of possible price volatility during this period.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Attached Images
