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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #185,341
  • Jul 21, 2009 6:56pm Jul 21, 2009 6:56pm
Is that reversal pattern Bears Harami?


Thanks
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  • #185,342
  • Jul 21, 2009 7:38pm Jul 21, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting igorsky69
Is that reversal pattern Bears Harami?


Thanks
I think it's a Bull's Harakiri!
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  • #185,343
  • Jul 21, 2009 7:39pm Jul 21, 2009 7:39pm
Here is my weekly chart setup..

It may stop at the weekly LTL (149.00 area and possible reversal)

If the weekly TL breaks than the 144.00 is my next support zone




Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi rg!

I like this setup

Like Q said, the 5 weekly sma is turning on resistance now

Attachment

Jhon
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  • #185,344
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:19pm Jul 21, 2009 9:19pm
I've been watching this site for more than 1 yr now and this threat been my favorite one. Keep up the good work, great info.
  • #185,345
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:40pm Jul 21, 2009 9:40pm
No, traders don't dream, could be a vision, crowds behavior is primitive, perfectionist is not belong to trading guys,
Just to mention that I was wrong about B target, but there is still possibility for final leg of correction.
For the possibility I am watching 5 min tf right now esp if 153.10 is not broken.
If the trends continues down than I am afraid the rally from 146.75 could be a motive.If they are turning up to reach my final leg C, then I am okay that the rally is corrective...what a contradictory idea..weird right?
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  • #185,346
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:45pm Jul 21, 2009 9:45pm
For GJ to Tank we need breach of 93.20 area that is neckline for Uj once that is done away with we will see uj fall hard towards 91.70 area .which should take GJ towards sub 150 area.
  • #185,347
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:55pm Jul 21, 2009 9:55pm
Quoting Dat7447
No, traders don't dream, could be a vision, crowds behavior is primitive, perfectionist is not belong to trading guys,
Just to mention that I was wrong about B target, but there is still possibility for final leg of correction.
For the possibility I am watching 5 min tf right now esp if 153.10 is not broken.
If the trends continues down than I am afraid the rally from 146.75 could be a motive.If they are turning up to reach my final leg C, then I am okay that the rally is corrective...what a contradictory idea..weird right?
http://i27.tinypic.com/2akmm2s.jpg
  • #185,348
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:16pm Jul 21, 2009 10:16pm
I think GJ will up to 155.01 , and now current price @ 153.47 .

Buy TP 155.01 SL 152.61 . Maybe I'm wrong, but lets we see...
  • #185,349
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:38pm Jul 21, 2009 10:38pm
i think many of traders want beast up because they want short at higher level therefore i am prepared to big tank today.
  • #185,350
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:44pm Jul 21, 2009 10:44pm
Its only been about a week since GS issued that call for a 13% rise in the ES by the end of the year. Usually when GS issues a call for a double digit move on the back of an already large swing more likely than not its a way for GS to be able to take profit on its current positions (Crude oil call anyone?). Whats bothered me atm is that while GJ has been tanking since the call, ES has happily skipped higher day by day. This is leading me to believe that the beast still has one last gasp of air left in her lungs as GS unloads its final few positions at the top before we plunge. Remember, it took about 2 weeks after GS made that oil call before it started to really fall.

levels to note however is that there is a potential shampoo formation in the works. NL around 152.20-50 area. Upside resistance is still on 155.90 (38.2% fibo on the last great fall from Sep 08). If the shampoo plays out then we'll prolly see something around the 155.00-50 area although this doesn't bar volatility spikes especially with all these earnings still coming out.
  • #185,351
  • Jul 21, 2009 11:46pm Jul 21, 2009 11:46pm
Quoting Eulogy
Its only been about a week since GS issued that call for a 13% rise in the ES by the end of the year. Usually when GS issues a call for a double digit move on the back of an already large swing more likely than not its a way for GS to be able to take profit on its current positions (Crude oil call anyone?). Whats bothered me atm is that while GJ has been tanking since the call, ES has happily skipped higher day by day. This is leading me to believe that the beast still has one last gasp of air left in her lungs as GS unloads its final few positions...
I thiml it was quiet logical as 2 weeks ago the eranings season still had to start, so during this happening the crowd bought stocks massively, The currency traders however discounted this already and gbp/yen started to go lower on GS announcement. Ith all of this more or less out of the way I assume the SPmini will be ready to tank soon enough
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  • #185,352
  • Jul 22, 2009 12:31am Jul 22, 2009 12:31am
Quoting 5ysfx
i think many of traders want beast up because they want short at higher level therefore i am prepared to big tank today.

everyone is looking for opportunity to eat from the fruit of labor so top and bottom is not always from high price, top and bottom goes with the price action and where the current strong S+R is telling u what to do... the auslanco senior members want the deep fall, but some of the novice dont really understand why they do so they prefare to follow the crowd and talk the samething, example a guy here on monday and yesterday calling same deep fall but the end of the day i asked if he was swing, scalper or intra-day trder but his asnwer was intra-day trader. he was talking like a swing trader and another guy post something about is overnight short entry from 156.XX from monday high level, also calling that long term position..isn't that confusing calling overnight position long term.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #185,353
  • Jul 22, 2009 12:42am Jul 22, 2009 12:42am
well such kind of sh... happen sometimes we are just a ppl...
anyway i am going for my 5K pips reward you can call it long term.
however i prefer 10K scenario.
when daily sma100 will be taken carries unwind part 2 begin.
from the other side 155 must hold as UTL.

Quoting donfriday
everyone is looking for opportunity to eat from the fruit of labor so top and bottom is not always from high price,...
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  • #185,354
  • Jul 22, 2009 12:44am Jul 22, 2009 12:44am
Quoting warta
Take Those Losses !!


One of the toughest thing to do for any trader, novice or professional is to accept losses and take the losses. ......

I like what you wrote. I admit this mistake often, so I still fight with myself.
Keep good job

Addicted to FX
  • #185,355
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:25am Jul 22, 2009 1:25am
Quoting donfriday
everyone is looking for opportunity to eat from the fruit of labor so top and bottom is not always from high price, top and bottom goes with the price action and where the current strong S+R is telling u what to do... the auslanco senior members want the deep fall, but some of the novice dont really understand why they do so they prefare to follow the crowd and talk the samething, example a guy here on monday and yesterday calling same deep fall but the end of the day i asked if he was swing, scalper or intra-day trder but his asnwer was intra-day...
No that is not confusing. I just told my long term entry. And until now i plays out perfectly. It is till going down further at least to 147
  • #185,356
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:37am Jul 22, 2009 1:37am
Quoting ghuisthefirs
No that is not confusing. I just told my long term entry. And until now i plays out perfectly. It is till going down further at least to 147
He is just saying that you shouldnt clasify yourself as a swing trader since you seem to be more long term than that. Also can you post a chart and explain why you think this. I am new to the GY and am trying to pickup as much knowledge on the pair as possible since i work in the industry.
  • #185,357
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:38am Jul 22, 2009 1:38am
Quoting ghuisthefirs
No that is not confusing. I just told my long term entry. And until now i plays out perfectly. It is till going down further at least to 147

your chart is your bible or Quran, ur hand is ur money and your eyes is ur gift from God..i only do day trading and if u open ur 4hrs chart u will see a parttern forming so anyone shorting from this point is damn too risky a breakout of we bounce from 38.2fibo neckline of 4hrs H&S...if this H&S want to get confirmed we should bounce from 38.2fibo then we go 154 50.0 fibo to from the right Sholder.IMO....just my opinion i only drive behind the trend cant move the trend..
trade safe
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #185,358
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:42am Jul 22, 2009 1:42am
Quoting donfriday
your chart is your bible or Quran, ur hand is ur money and your eyes is ur gift from God..i only do day trading and if u open ur 4hrs chart u will see a parttern forming so anyone shorting from this point is damn too risky a breakout of we bounce from 38.2fibo neckline of 4hrs H&S...if this H&S want to get confirmed we should bounce from 38.2fibo then we go 154 50.0 fibo to from the right Sholder.IMO....just my opinion i only drive behind the trend cant move the trend..
trade safe
Don I have been watching the 4H and agree with you. I think this HS Pattern (if it decides to follow technicals) will test 154.50 again and with volatility could push higher but I continue to believe by looking at the chart and my expereience in the fx markets that it should test 152.4 and than 150.60. These are rough levels for me and I still see in the future the pair continuing to trend lower unless it breaks my wedge.

Also the indicators I use CCI, DeM and %R are giving me the idea that we are due for a bounce soon but now yet.. possibly a test of 152.40 if 4H candle stays below 153.20
  • #185,359
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:46am Jul 22, 2009 1:46am
Quoting Bseegz28
Don I have been ...
Hi.
There is no H&S. Good luck
Thank You
  • #185,360
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:47am Jul 22, 2009 1:47am
U.K. House-Price Slump Will Persist Until 2012, Niesr Says






By Svenja O’Donnell
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s house-price slump will persist until 2012 and hurt consumer spending, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said.
Home values will resume their decline because recent gains were driven by a lack of available homes and the number of mortgages remains 65 percent lower than before the financial crisis, the London-based institute said today. It also predicts gross domestic product will keep falling until the final quarter of this year.
“There has been talk of stabilization and some recovery in the housing market, but we don’t think this is the case,” Simon Kirby, an economist at Niesr, told reporters yesterday. “We only see growth in the housing market returning in 2012.”
The Bank of England said this week that mortgage lending may strengthen in coming months, while Nationwide Building Society says that house prices increased in June. The economy has yet to emerge from recession after contracting the most since 1958 in the first quarter.
“The temporary rise in prices is probably the result of limited supply,” the report said. The institute’s clients include the Treasury and the Bank of England.
Falling house prices will hurt consumer spending growth in the next two years, Niesr said. Together with rising unemployment, this will encourage an increase in the household savings ratio to the highest level since 1997 next year, the institute predicted.
Budget Deficit
Government borrowing will peak at 12 percent of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2010, or 165.7 billion pounds ($273 billion), before shrinking to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013-14, Niesr said.
GDP slumped 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Niesr estimates that it fell 0.4 percent in the second quarter. The median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey is for a 0.3 percent drop. The Office for National Statistics will release the data on July 24.
The economy will grow again in the fourth quarter, by 0.5 percent, the institute said.
“The recovery will be weak,” Kirby said. “We see continued contraction in consumer spending and business investment.”
Bank of England policy makers are spending 125 billion pounds of newly printed money on assets to help bolster the economy. Minutes showing how they voted at the July 9 meeting, when they decided to maintain the size of the current buying program, will be released today at 9:30 a.m. in London.
To contact the reporter on this story: Svenja O’Donnell in London at [email protected].
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