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Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #21
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:38am Jul 18, 2009 9:38am
Hi Tunji,

I was looking at your charts and notice that you don't have the price on the fib lines. If you or anyone else in interested in displaying the price on the lines, do the following:

Edit your fib by placing it on your chart and double clicking it
Now right click the fib and select "fibo properties"
Click on "fibo levels"
In the description box at the end of any text, put in "%$" without the speech marks
Click "ok"

If you already knew this information, then please disregard this post.

Good luck with your thread and your trading strategy!
  • #22
  • Jul 18, 2009 10:17am Jul 18, 2009 10:17am
Quoting okehiedon
Tunji, instructive response will be following your thread you seem to have a good understanding of the markets, by the way how long have you been trading forex
Thanks Okehiedon. Actually, I started studying and trading forex almost two years ago (August will mark my second year); though I attempted trading the Nigerian stock market for more than a year prior to when I got into currencies.
  • #23
  • Jul 18, 2009 10:21am Jul 18, 2009 10:21am
Quoting Limstylz
Hi Tunji,

I was looking at your charts and notice that you don't have the price on the fib lines. If you or anyone else in interested in displaying the price on the lines, do the following:

Edit your fib by placing it on your chart and double clicking it
Now right click the fib and select "fibo properties"
Click on "fibo levels"
In the description box at the end of any text, put in "%$" without the speech marks
Click "ok"

If you already knew this information, then please disregard this post.

Good luck with your thread and your trading...
Limstylz, this is great! I just did that. Thanks a lot.
  • #24
  • Jul 18, 2009 10:24am Jul 18, 2009 10:24am
Hello Tunji,

Am glad to see another Nigerian trading professionally!

O ku ise oo

pemi so ri ago odo, ejo, odo, aarun, eefa, eesan, oodo, aarun, eefa, ookan, eeji.

we could touch link and touch base

nice one
  • #25
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:05am Jul 18, 2009 11:05am
Okay lets see the probabilities next week using fibs. For GU (4hr chart) price found resistance at the 61.8 fib level of the 30 jun 09 high (1.6743) and the 8 jul 09 low (1.5982) @ 1.6452. However price action is unclear after price bounced of the 50 fib level of the 1.6743 high at 1.6379 the 9 jul 09 high and did not form a lower low before reversing to test the 61.8 fib level as earlier hihglighted. My opinion is that better to stay out until an hourly close above 1.6452 for bulls or an hourly close below fridays low 1.6264 for bears. Between that area is to buy at support (1.6273 area) sell at resistance (1.6452 area). What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4 hr.gif Size: 55 KB
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #26
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:20am Jul 18, 2009 11:20am
Quote
Okay lets see the probabilities next week using fibs. For GU (4hr chart) price found resistance at the 61.8 fib level of the 30 jun 09 high (1.6743) and the 8 jul 09 low (1.5982) @ 1.6452. However price action is unclear after price bounced of the 50 fib level of the 1.6743 high at 1.6379 the 9 jul 09 high and did not form a lower low before reversing to test the 61.8 fib level as earlier hihglighted. My opinion is that better to stay out until an hourly close above 1.6452 for bulls or an hourly close below fridays low 1.6264 for bears. Between...

Good analysis but the thread starter stated it clear that its an hourly-intraday strategy.

as simple as this look, daily is in pennant, bouncing off support and resistance of the daily time frame, it has bounced of the resistance with a bearish reversal candle formation, hence look for bear till the daily support.

the same is applicable to EURO AND SWISSY, price trading with a specified range, trade withing the trading range until we break out.

keep it simple
  • #27
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:32am Jul 18, 2009 11:32am
Quoting Naijafx
Hello Tunji,

Am glad to see another Nigerian trading professionally!

O ku ise oo

pemi so ri ago odo, ejo, odo, aarun, eefa, eesan, oodo, aarun, eefa, ookan, eeji.

we could touch link and touch base

nice one
Lol… I’ll definitely call.
  • #28
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:08am Jul 19, 2009 6:08am
Quoting Tunji
Lol… I’ll definitely call.
Tunji

This is good. Proud of you my dear

Sis Toyin
  • #29
  • Jul 19, 2009 2:34pm Jul 19, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting botadufig05
Tunji

This is good. Proud of you my dear

Sis Toyin
Thanks a lot sis.
  • #30
  • Jul 20, 2009 5:24am Jul 20, 2009 5:24am
On the Daily chart (attached), price closed below the symmetrical triangle on Thurday – last week, re-tested it on Friday; and currently, it seems set to continue its downward move. To buttress this bearish bias, price recently broke last week Thurday low @ 1.0701 (a previous critical support level). From a day-trade perspective, we have good reason to go Short – provided the H4 chart support the downward move bias.
The next critical support level is @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). We should keep this level in mind (in relation to our profit target, in case we are eventually able to get a Short trade set-up on the hourly chart). If price breaks below the level before retracing upward, it’ll even make the coast clearer for a Short trade.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.0701 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. As we’ve probably observed, this swing low @ 1.0701, coincidentally, is also the last week Thursday low that we discussed on the Daily chart. From a day-trade perspective, this is a good sign supporting a Short trade. The white horizontal line @ 1.0816 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
The critical support level @ 1.0630 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line) that we also discussed on the Daily chart is visible too on H4 chart. Let’s really keep it in mind when managing our Short trades – in case we eventually got into one.

However, we still need our hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #31
  • Jul 20, 2009 6:03am Jul 20, 2009 6:03am
Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0753 level upward, our bearish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0633 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks below 1.0658 (current price-bottom) before retracing to the sell-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new bottom & the most recent hourly swing high to determine new potential areas to sell.
NOTE: Price will reach our profit target before the critical support @ 1.0630 that we discussed much earlier today – an encouraging sign. However, that would be if price didn’t break below the current price-bottom before retracing upward the sell-area.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the hourly price action and the potential areas to sell (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move up to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0717;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0733.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0755; primary Profit target @ 1.0633 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the higher the fib level you choose to sell from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that high before moving back downward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Long trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pairs.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF - 15min 200709.gif Size: 30 KB
Attached Image
  • #32
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:49am Jul 20, 2009 8:49am
Quoting Tunji
Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels –..... .
Good job, Tunji
Keep posting...
  • #33
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:03am Jul 20, 2009 9:03am
The u/j pair is looking pretty good right now.The blue lines are the hourly and 4 hr swing highs.This is the 15 min chart.Buy limit 94.40 from the last swing low and divergence on the 15 min chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #34
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:08am Jul 20, 2009 9:08am
Excuse me.94.50 buy limit not 94.40.SL 94.30 Tex
  • #35
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:46am Jul 20, 2009 9:46am
Quoting tex123
The u/j pair is looking pretty good right now.The blue lines are the hourly and 4 hr swing highs.This is the 15 min chart.Buy limit 94.40 from the last swing low and divergence on the 15 min chart.Attachment
Pretty good job Tex, but you didn’t use the most recent hourly swing high to draw your fibs. The most recent hourly swing high is lower than the swing high you used. Price is currently not forming a higher high – we’re kind of in a consolidation phase on the USDJPY hourly right now. Be careful.
  • #36
  • Jul 20, 2009 10:59am Jul 20, 2009 10:59am
Quoting Tunji
Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Short.

The Hourly chart [font=Arial](attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have bottomed temporarily @ 1.0658. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0706 and 1.0753 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing high to the current price-bottom). Let’s seek to sell around this area. If price exceeds the 1.0753 level upward, our bearish bias is...
Hi Tunji, looks like the USD/CHF is going to play out nicely..
I have recently gone thru a total makeover of my trading. I have decided to stop using any indicators (crutches) and simply focus on price action.
I plan on using Fibs as a guide to where price will tend to go and enter/exit accordingly.

So far, I am amazed at how much better my trading is going.

I have just recently started using the Fibs and they have been working great. However I was using only the Fib Retracement tool and not the Fib Expansion tool. I would pull the Fib retracement tool and place the 0 and 100 at the top/bottom of the most recent price swing. I would then simply use the 1.382 level as my profit target.

I look forward to learning your method and learning how to use the Fib Expansion tool......
  • #37
  • Jul 20, 2009 11:10am Jul 20, 2009 11:10am
Hi Tunji, Are you reffering to the swing high around the 93.92 area ? I was taking the swing high to left in consideration also which is the 94.50 area and the 4 hr chart swing high to the left. The dow looked like it was going up this morning but like you say this pair is consolidating pretty bad . I closed out with 5 pips Thnaks for your help Tunji. Tex
  • #38
  • Jul 20, 2009 11:30am Jul 20, 2009 11:30am
[quote=Tunji;2878859]

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.6514 (the 127% fib. ext.).
----------------------------------------------------------
Hi Tunji, in the above example you mentioned that the initial profit target is 1.0633 and you say that this is the Fib 127% extension. I crunched the numbers and it looks like it is really the 150% Fib Extension. Is that correct?

I am just trying to learn to use this tool..

Thanks
  • #39
  • Jul 20, 2009 1:14pm Jul 20, 2009 1:14pm
[quote=DojiMojo;2887369]
Quoting Tunji

Earlier today, we concluded today’s bias is to go Long.

The Hourly chart [font=Arial](attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.6481. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.6418 and 1.6355 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price exceeds the 1.6355 level downward, our...
Hi DojiMojo, check the attachment below, I hope it’ll guide you through getting your 127% fib ext. (I guess you’re using the MT4 platform).
If you need further clarification, please let me know.
Attached Image
  • #40
  • Jul 20, 2009 1:49pm Jul 20, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting tex123
Hi Tunji, Are you reffering to the swing high around the 93.92 area ? I was taking the swing high to left in consideration also which is the 94.50 area and the 4 hr chart swing high to the left. The dow looked like it was going up this morning but like you say this pair is consolidating pretty bad . I closed out with 5 pips Thnaks for your help Tunji. Tex
You’re welcome Tex.
Actually, as at the time you were using the swing high @ 94.77 area (upper blue line) to draw your fib, the new swing high @ 94.65 (lower blue line) had already formed – with two lower candles on both sides – and it was lower than the previous swing high @ 94.77. The lower swing high was simply giving us hint that the bears might’ve taken over.
So, when the swing low @ 94.36 was broken downward, the bears proved their strength and we simply moved into a no-trade zone.

Hope I answered your question?
Attached Image
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