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4H Box Breakout

  • #1,061
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:57pm Jul 19, 2009 7:57pm
I'm long both G/J and E/J. I 'm going to try and keep from checking it overnight. Well...maybe once since I'll have to get up anyway

For anyone wondering about the candles to use...as suggested before, just get a demo at fxdd, go to H4 and hit ctrl-Y and that is the candle to use.

Long or short...let's make a few pips.
  • #1,062
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:57pm Jul 19, 2009 7:57pm
We are on the cusp. We either breach the 61.8 resistance 155.20 or we retrace. Keep watch.

Many people, when they see a serious breach will scale in for more lots. Just an idea, NOT A RECOMMENDATION.

Dave R.
  • #1,063
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:09pm Jul 19, 2009 8:09pm
I know its not how everyone is doing it but I use the IBFX 0:00 GMT candle close to make the trade. In my back testing it was very similar to the FXDD candle in results. Not getting in for another hour.
  • #1,064
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:11pm Jul 19, 2009 8:11pm
I know I am hammering this but most of us have gone LONG right at a huge resistance point. If your SL is the standard box, it is about 140 to 150 pips. You need to watch closely until the Resistance of 155.15 is breached substantially or you could well be looking at a 150 pip loss. By substantially, I would mean about 100 pips for GBpJPY

For me, if it hits 50 pips plus, I will go to BE and if it goes 50 below entry, I will close and put in a new Pending Long at the SL close to minimize my loss to a maximum 50 pips.

Just my thinking right now.

Dave R.
  • #1,065
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:27pm Jul 19, 2009 8:27pm
Dave,
Do you happen to be watching your backtest in visual mode? I think there are some further bugs to work out as far as the pending orders are concerned. I am just running it default from 6/28, and am noticing quite a few double orders and such. Might want to verify it actually is performing totally correctly, before spending 48 hrs on optimizing
Just thought I'd ask.
  • #1,066
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:28pm Jul 19, 2009 8:28pm
Hi everyone.

I have been following this thread and trading this super system for some time. I think to aid in stopping the confusion of the candle time, we should consider this.

Eg of time for candle start end with GMT is 00 and the following brokers that I use for this is

Forex.com
ODL
IBFX

new candles are created at 00.00, 04.00,08.00 gmt etc

for FXDD the candle forms at

01.00 ,05.00 and 09.00

So.. if you have a platform that runs same or differently form those above.. you can also post here so as we all can get to use the same cnadle for entry.

I call it the 00 or 01 platforms. Let us know what platform ou use and if it is not a 00 or 01 platfomr.
  • #1,067
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:29pm Jul 19, 2009 8:29pm
Dave, you're going to keep me up all night. Yikes!
  • #1,068
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:33pm Jul 19, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting 11andy11
I know its not how everyone is doing it but I use the IBFX 0:00 GMT candle close to make the trade. In my back testing it was very similar to the FXDD candle in results. Not getting in for another hour.
I also use a GMT broker and in my visual backtests have found it more profitable to WAIT for the 'dust to settle' on participants' perceptions of the week / any gaps e.t.c. and like 11Andy11 I set my pending orders at 0400 GMT (close of 0000 candle) Not wishing to confuse anyone: just putting ideas out there as that's what forums are for.

Regarding targets: I use 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75 of WEEKLY ATR4 (a month) as my 3 lot targets. Why? I don't follow the logic of basic your profit targets on ONE candle at the start of the week. For example, a small candle means you set small targets when you could have reaped more; a large entry candle means your take profit targets are likely to be too wide you may only hit 1st or possibly second. Have a look back...

I gun for at least 75% of the WEEKLY range being on one side of the breakout box rather than 1 of the 30 candles that make up that week.

My 2 cents...
  • #1,069
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:41pm Jul 19, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting tazmaan
Dave,
Do you happen to be watching your backtest in visual mode? I think there are some further bugs to work out as far as the pending orders are concerned. I am just running it default from 6/28, and am noticing quite a few double orders and such. Might want to verify it actually is performing totally correctly, before spending 48 hrs on optimizing
Just thought I'd ask.
No. I always run in optimization mode first. Then I run what I consider the best combination of variables in visual mode to see what is happening . Haven't got there yet.

I totally expect bugs right now. We are really early in the EA stage.

That is why I say: THIS IS NOT READY FOR LIVE TRADING YET.

Keep us informed on what you find.

Best Regards

DAve R.
  • #1,070
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:04pm Jul 19, 2009 9:04pm
Quoting markfx
Hey Dave,

What do ya think of Ace's method???
Sorry, I missed your reply.

I actually really hate Ace's method! NO Wait. My trade is up. I really love it again. No wait.....

Dave R.
  • #1,071
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:06pm Jul 19, 2009 9:06pm
I am long on GJ & EJ today. Let's see where the trades landup.

GJ is hammering Resistance level at 155.20. Won't be surprised if it's breached before london up and hits TP1 and TP2 during NY Session.

Anything is possible with the Dragon.
Trading is SIMPLE not EASY.
  • #1,072
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:18pm Jul 19, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting garfield75
I am long on GJ & EJ today. Let's see where the trades landup.

GJ is hammering Resistance level at 155.20. Won't be surprised if it's breached before london up and hits TP1 and TP2 during NY Session.

Anything is possible with the Dragon.
Yeah. I agree. It is really strong out of the gate without the London open yet.

Traditionally, any GBP cross is slow before London open. This will be interesting, or not.

I am awake tonight.

dr
  • #1,073
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:30pm Jul 19, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting droland
Yeah. I agree. It is really strong out of the gate without the London open yet.

Traditionally, any GBP cross is slow before London open. This will be interesting, or not.

I am awake tonight.

dr
I see very strong resistance at 155.35-155.40. So my entry is actually above that zone. I am not triggered yet. Price has definitely reacted to that zone before. Hopefully if London pushes it above that, then that resistance will turn into support and we move up.

I would also watch the 160.00 level and maybe I will move my stop to about 100 pips. Being a big round number and price has hesitated there before, I expect it to react to that level before moving up to the TP4. I am just using this method with PA and S/R.

Good luck traders
  • #1,074
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:53pm Jul 19, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting kulu
I see very strong resistance at 155.35-155.40. So my entry is actually above that zone. I am not triggered yet. Price has definitely reacted to that zone before. Hopefully if London pushes it above that, then that resistance will turn into support and we move up.

I would also watch the 160.00 level and maybe I will move my stop to about 100 pips. Being a big round number and price has hesitated there before, I expect it to react to that level before moving up to the TP4. I am just using this method with PA and S/R.

Good luck traders
What are you basing the 155.35 - .40 resistance on. I assume you are basing the 160 on the round number resistance. At that point, I think I would be running my SL at 100 down to maybe 50 pips depending on the market conditions.

All this input is extremely useful for long term learning. KEEP IT UP. Right or wrong, it doesn't matter. We need all input.

DAve R.
  • #1,075
  • Jul 19, 2009 9:56pm Jul 19, 2009 9:56pm
great info razor.

I've been trading live with this method for 1 month on a 50k account and now it's been to 56k (as of yesterday).

I also think that a long term low risk method is the key to ultimate success. A quick boost of the account equity within a short period of time is nothing other than luck (think of bull run in property market in asia country just beofre 1997, or the internet boom just before 2000).

I risk 2% in each trade, with TP 1.5x. I want a higher win rate low drawdown setup. With this setting, I backtested from 2003 till now and achieved a percentage of 26.3% to be losing week (loss loss), 1.95% (loss no re-entry, due to weekend coming), 32.14% (loss win), 32.47% (win no re-entry, due to price go oneway away), and 7.14% (win win). A max drawdown of 32% is achieved.

With some further rule to keep me away from unfavourable condition, i can achieve 18.71% (loss loss), that is 81.29% of the weeks are winning weeks. And the best is a merely 11% drawdown is observed over the 6.5years periods. Under this setting, the expectancy of the system is 0.64 (i.e. on average, i can gain 0.64 * 2% per week).

I will increase the risk to 3% per trade after i got some casino money.


Quoting Razor_trader
I notice this in alot of threads where majority are looking for the biggest bang for there buck. The only thing you need to do is think of the worst case scenario and build your trade around it, that is the risk that your prepared to accept and be able to move on.

The other side of the coin is before you really get involved, what is your goal. The vast majority want to be millioniares or beyond. While it is good to dream, very few will be prepare to put the coin on the table to get to that point.

All the testing in the world will do little...
  • #1,076
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:07pm Jul 19, 2009 10:07pm
Is their a TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 indicator that shows on the 4hr chart.
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #1,077
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:08pm Jul 19, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting dannywmk
great info razor.

I've been trading live with this method for 1 month on a 50k account and now it's been to 56k (as of yesterday).

I also think that a long term low risk method is the key to ultimate success. A quick boost of the account equity within a short period of time is nothing other than luck (think of bull run in property market in asia country just beofre 1997, or the internet boom just before 2000).

I risk 2% in each trade, with TP 1.5x. I want a higher win rate low drawdown setup. With this setting, I backtested from 2003 till...
This is highly significant. Was this with a set and forget method as per the original concept.

Dave R.
  • #1,078
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:10pm Jul 19, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting tcmm
Is their a TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 indicator that show on the 4hr chart.
Read the thread.

Ace has created an excellent mod to the Fib chart.

It's in this thread.

Dave R.
  • #1,079
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:12pm Jul 19, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting droland
Read the thread.

Ace has created an excellent mod to the Fib chart.

It's in this thread.

Dave R.

do you know where it is so I can get it. the thread is big and its 1.00am in Toronto Thanks
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #1,080
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:18pm Jul 19, 2009 10:18pm
Hi there,

I have attatched Swingmans BoxBreakout ver. 2. indicator and set alerts/ eamil to true. But unfortunataly I don't get any alerts or emails, see picture.

Can anybody help me to fix this problem? Im on FXPRO as broker.
I use it on 1 hr charts.

Thank's in advance,

PC
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