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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #184,921
  • Edited 11:27pm Jul 17, 2009 11:10pm | Edited 11:27pm
Safe haven demand boosted the dollar on Friday after terrorist bombings in Jakarta, Indonesia. Data on US housing starts and building permits were better than anticipated. The S&P 500 fell 0.36 points to 940.38, but US stocks rose about 7% for the week. The dollar and yen declined on better risk appetite while the European and commodity currencies advanced for the week.

The dollar index rose modestly on Friday but fell for the week. Unable to break the resistance at the 81 handle last week, the index was pressured this week by better-than-expected US corporate earnings and improving global economic data, particularly strong Chinese economic growth. The dollar index has been trading inversely with the stock market and risk appetite. The index reached a peak in the beginning of March, which coincided with the US stock market's low. The index then traded sharply lower as stocks rallied. During June's stock-market consolidation, the dollar index moved sideways. If the US stocks measured by S&P 500 can penetrate the resistance from the early-June high in the 950 area, the dollar index will break the 78-area support and likely drop significantly.

This may rally the stock again but the 9,000 needs to give way...

GJ may follow the DJ if this rally break thru the 9,000 level on the DJ daily chart..

If the dollar index reverse at the 80 level than the DJ will drop with GJ....

Dollar index is inversely to the DJ market
The DJ broke the overall TL for a bullish upward PA..



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  • #184,922
  • Edited 11:25pm Jul 17, 2009 11:12pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting rgitt05
Overall, I concluded a breakout is due next week or the end of the month.

After observing the PA on both the UJ and GU this past few weeks, I technically see a downward PA soon if the 156.00 zone is not taken out..

The 156.00 was held up last few weeks as a support and now it is holding up as a Resistance atm..

Fundamental is playing games with the market now because of the Low Volume Volatility. Poor correlation with forex and the DJ (lagging)

[color=red][b]In other US news, Bank of America and Citigroup both reported better-than-expected...
Thanks a lot for everythins mate and really appreciate on it...Perhaps we will see new low this year ..Anyway Happy weekend...See u next week
  • #184,923
  • Edited Jul 18, 2009 1:09am Jul 17, 2009 11:59pm | Edited Jul 18, 2009 1:09am
Here is the Pitchfork analysis''

Drawn from strong RESISTENCE and is now SUPPORT. @ 151.56

Now I do have the idea If the market Rallies up,,... then where to short from 157- 158 depending on the angle..

If you see 15M ..1HR chart there is inverted Shampoo in the making.. Size of that HEAD is 250 pips or so From 152.43--155.23 . If you add 250 pips.. comes Close to 158xx.. Thats wher e the upper line of the Pitch fork is.

I dont use this PITCHFORK ever.. But its telling a story

4 hr has a hanging man pattern.. but since it is not formed at the top of the trend..so its not so reliable. that makes me think.. market should go up..to get the weak sshorts out One more time..from 162xx..160xx..155xx.. Then we should be able to see this to atleat 146.52.first.. Then 143.10

Then you can Buy this again to the ride to 162xx for double top or 163xx- 167 and higher..

IF this Huge 4 hr Head and shoulder plays out Then we can definately see 137--135xx.
Note there is also a inverted H&S formation in the making ..In oeder to form the proper head price should go to 159xx( Neck line)

And If this Inverted Shampoo plays out we are seeing 167xx for sure.

I dont know If we will have a Trap from Inverted Head and Shoulder..

Or From Straight Shampoo,,, I like this one better though,,, more PIPS

In the end when all these moves Play out I think it wont look anything like Head and Shoulder of any kind,, But Wave 4.. and we will see a rally up.. to break the upper Multi Decade Trendline,, based on 30 year ..Quarterly Chart with Hammer at the very BOTTOM...strong Bullish reversal sign..

In order for wave5( from118xx to 162xx) to play out Price should not go Further than 142.50--143..(WAVE4) Below those levels...If it does than....I am Wrong BIG TIME.. the whole wave count is Wrong..I should QUIT trading...lol..
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #184,924
  • Edited 4:58pm Jul 18, 2009 12:35am | Edited 4:58pm
Second Scenario.

With Trendlines ( in BLACK) + Pitch fork (in RED)

I dont like to Have any BIAS, But I think its gonna be a BULLISH Week.

Option expiry Week might be Tanking. imo

We have Hidden Bearish Divergence Building on Daily... Its not there yet... ( Price should be going higher IMO.)
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #184,925
  • Jul 18, 2009 2:23am Jul 18, 2009 2:23am
Quoting rgitt05
Safe haven demand boosted the dollar on Friday after terrorist bombings in Jakarta, Indonesia. Data on US housing starts and building permits were better than anticipated. The S&P 500 fell 0.36 points to 940.38, but US stocks rose about 7% for the week. The dollar and yen declined on better risk appetite while the European and commodity currencies advanced for the week.

The dollar index rose modestly on Friday but fell for the week. Unable to break the resistance at the 81 handle last week, the index was pressured this week by better-than-expected...
is that a news item you got from somewhere ?

dollar index is being accumulated , even if 78 does break it may be on low volume indicating testing is going on

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #184,926
  • Jul 18, 2009 2:57am Jul 18, 2009 2:57am
Quoting malcolmb14
is that a news item you got from somewhere ?

dollar index is being accumulated , even if 78 does break it may be on low volume indicating testing is going on

Attachment
Yeh, interestingly the Commericals are 96% long the dollar index in this weeks COT positioning report. They have also been at 100% short the kiwi in recent weeks.
  • #184,927
  • Jul 18, 2009 3:43am Jul 18, 2009 3:43am
pound/yen is now 154.24 i think will have an up move gap during the weekend
  • #184,928
  • Jul 18, 2009 4:06am Jul 18, 2009 4:06am
Quoting Raza
How wuz Paris?

your perception of Price or news did not work when you were away...

May be next week.. on Good news Market might Tank.? (Perception)

Charts with some lines drawn will make history in Future..it did for me last week...Hope you were not short at 151xx

Paris is lovely, shame about the people LOL

No, not short at 151. Short at 15295 and 16422 on Cable as per previous post.

Have a good weekend
  • #184,929
  • Jul 18, 2009 8:31am Jul 18, 2009 8:31am
You are funny...

Anyway, I remembered an old cliche" buy on bad news, sell on good news"

All this PA is playing with the minds of the weak traders... The news for the past several months been bad but the market is still rallying..

The DJ charts brokeout of the major TL and the $index is inversely to the market...If the $ index continues downward thru the 78 levels than DJ maybe be setup for a rally in this thin volume market before the big drop in the fall..

IMHO..





Quoting malcolmb14
is that a news item you got from somewhere ?

dollar index is being accumulated , even if 78 does break it may be on low volume indicating testing is going on

Attachment
[
  • #184,930
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:24am Jul 18, 2009 9:24am
Quoting warta
pound/yen is now 154.24 i think will have an up move gap during the weekend
154.X

How about this...

http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quote...ish_pound.html
  • #184,931
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:44am Jul 18, 2009 9:44am
i would like to post two charts, jpy & gbp COT reports. this should be enough to figure out how large traders are ALREADY positioned, and give us enough time to position for the next important move.

so... jpy chart shows that large traders have already started buying yens. i bet they are positioning for a big short. and that's what i'll do. sooner or later, /jpy pairs will drop big time. this rally towards 156 (possible 157) is just a test, and it is on LOW volume as you can see.

gbp chart shows a similar thing: large traders have also increased their gbp selling. and we see the same thing as in yen - a test of upper range limit, on low volume. will you buy into it? i won't.

now let's go back to g-j and recap: big boys are selling gbp AND buying yens at the same time. isn't this just fantastic???

have a great weekend!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #184,932
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:48am Jul 18, 2009 9:48am
Hi goodfellas

Are we ready to drop finally or we have to kiss 157 before ?
2 hanging man on daily chart right below neckline.

Have a nice weekend.
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  • #184,933
  • Jul 18, 2009 10:39am Jul 18, 2009 10:39am
oh, and yeah, check this one out. monthly gbp. i think malc already mentioned something similar last week...

small spread, very high volume - in fact, it is the highest volume in the last 4 years. you do the math.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #184,934
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:06am Jul 18, 2009 11:06am
Quoting Scrat
oh, and yeah, check this one out. monthly gbp. i think malc already mentioned something similar last week...

small spread, very high volume - in fact, it is the highest volume in the last 4 years. you do the math.

yup took this week as opportunity to add open new swing trade sell on GBP. something is going down shortly
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #184,935
  • Edited 1:30pm Jul 18, 2009 11:14am | Edited 1:30pm
HI everybody, hope u having great weekend., just a quick post ..
the scenario now look like a possible upper Fibonacci fan and extension, that zone should be a good place for sellers to enter the market..this might be wave 5 or what ever they call it but Cristal clear , weekly bearish, monthly bearish, this is only a retest all this is to play with our mind and take our money but the wise one will see what they are doing...
some of us are weak holder this mean we get into the market and think we are not on the right side just because we have few losing position on going against us so we could not hold it long ....but the strong holder dont even care about 500pips lose because they can stand the pressure and know the future direction of the position they are holding on so by the end of the day they become winner..
PA playing inside this fan 61.8 and 50.0 with 115sma holding it well, Gj should not go beyond 157 imo that channel was the previous levels of the seller so a retest is possible with a heavy selling....this is how far i could explain from my experience..
c ya everyone out there..
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #184,936
  • Jul 18, 2009 12:17pm Jul 18, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting quecee5
Also look at the daily chart - seems to be showing a nice reversal pattern esp. if we close below the daily pivot. . .



cheers
what was the daily pivot?...
  • #184,937
  • Edited 3:21pm Jul 18, 2009 1:08pm | Edited 3:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yup took this week as opportunity to add open new swing trade sell on GBP. something is going down shortly
hmmm..same old dreamers house of comosion...i think retest of 146 is on the way..though i would'nt rule out a possible test of 61.8%fibs at 156 area....hOLLA.. CAPTAIN SYCHO
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #184,938
  • Jul 18, 2009 1:09pm Jul 18, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting grashid
154.X

How about this...

http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quote...ish_pound.html

update ; G/J is now 153.81
  • #184,939
  • Jul 18, 2009 1:10pm Jul 18, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting sycho
hmmm..same old dreamers house of comosion...i think retest of 146 is on the way..though i would rule out a possible test of 61.8%fibs at 156 area....hOLLA.. CAPTAIN SYCHO
sychoo long time mate hope u r well
  • #184,940
  • Jul 18, 2009 3:17pm Jul 18, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting warta
sychoo long time mate hope u r well
am good,bro..been reading onto my exam's..should have rounded up in a few weeks but our lecturer's went on strike..so am grounded..no trading,no poting no internet..hope all is well at your end..HOLLA
CAPTAIN SYCHO
Imanuel Parsifal
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