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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #184,881
  • Jul 17, 2009 11:52am Jul 17, 2009 11:52am
Well, Paris...what can I say? Lovely Country, shame about the people.

Right, here's what I see.

I've had to look at GBP/USD to try and get an idea with what is happening with Sterling.

This whole rise is a bear flag, not a rally. The green shoots of recovery are in fact weeds.

I think the Uptrend has finished. We are in actual fact already in a downtrend, it's just not that obvious to everyone yet. Distribution has been occurring along the 4 x warnings marked on the chart, this move in the last few days is in a small upchannel within the "New" downtrend.

The reversal pattern shown over the last fews days the last warning to be ready for a fall, a spectacular fall I might add. I think that the fall will be rapid through 160, 155, and below 150.

Have a good weekend bro's.

PS Good to see ya Quecee and Piters
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  • #184,882
  • Edited 12:13pm Jul 17, 2009 12:01pm | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting msniper
well bro my analysis is very clear if 152.36 is not taken down then there might be a 5th wave above 155 then the big move down that u r talking about which lead to even to 130.71 which is 161.8 from the 143 and this is my midterm target

if 152.36 broke then we will not see any thing above 155

keep it simple and good luck to u too
I see. . .

If you look at the weekly chart and draw a fib from the swing high and swing low gj retraced exactly 0.618 off the low to the pip - right back to the weekly 5 SMA and got rejected. . . see chart below. . .

If you also look at the the 5 SMA if we close this week below it next week will have another candle below it and that should trigger the weekly gann crossing/bearish sentiment, which will put even more pressure toward the downside or a huge move lower (1000 pips min. . .

When I look at this chart I see a trip back to 139 with dip to 1.618 @ 137 to take out week postions. . .

But I guess we'll see how it plays. . .
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  • #184,883
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:04pm Jul 17, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting Tataocb
So you dont think price will go into the 156-157 area before the fall begins?
Well its trading below the daily pivot - we've tested it and if we close below it we are headed further down as indicated by the weekly chart.

Not sure what the significance of 156/157 is. . .

JMHO!
  • #184,884
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:15pm Jul 17, 2009 12:15pm
This Clearing Directions ...thaimoneywayDOTblogspotDOTcom
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  • #184,885
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:16pm Jul 17, 2009 12:16pm
I must admit, this week I have found it hard not to listen or be swayed by the news, All I hear is "Profits!", "Recovery" "End of recession!" "We're on the way up", "We've hit the bottom!".

Sometimes it's the hardest thing in the worlld to follow your charts.

Am I wrong? Could be...feels like Im the only one who sees this whole rally as a Bear flag.

Anyway, holding Short GBP/JPY 15295 and Cable 1.6423
  • #184,886
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:21pm Jul 17, 2009 12:21pm
Looks like the bear is hanging on ATM.

Attached Image


Things are getting exciting....
  • #184,887
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:27pm Jul 17, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting direct-trade
I must admit, this week I have found it hard not to listen or be swayed by the news, All I hear is "Profits!", "Recovery" "End of recession!" "We're on the way up", "We've hit the bottom!".

Sometimes it's the hardest thing in the worlld to follow your charts.

Am I wrong? Could be...feels like Im the only one who sees this whole rally as a Bear flag.

Anyway, holding Short GBP/JPY 15295 and Cable 1.6423
There's alot more earnings reports yet to come next week. Besides, the way this market has been going, one may be better off taking a contrarian position when everyone is saying its going up, etc. The market will do its best to embarrass anyone who thinks they know where its going.
  • #184,888
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:28pm Jul 17, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting direct-trade
I must admit, this week I have found it hard not to listen or be swayed by the news, All I hear is "Profits!", "Recovery" "End of recession!" "We're on the way up", "We've hit the bottom!".

Sometimes it's the hardest thing in the worlld to follow your charts.

Am I wrong? Could be...feels like Im the only one who sees this whole rally as a Bear flag.

Anyway, holding Short GBP/JPY 15295 and Cable 1.6423

RECOVERY...

Biggest bunch of hog wash I've heard in a while.

The last time the manuar was flying like this was a year ago. I beleve oil was supposed to hit 200.

That didn't quite work out did it.

Window dressing all around us.....When reality hits it will hit hard.
  • #184,889
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:34pm Jul 17, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting bablo
Looks like the bear is hanging on ATM.

Attachment

Things are getting exciting....
Seems like it's exaggerating the problem .. the rope is nylon or steel made? .. bear is biting
  • #184,890
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:44pm Jul 17, 2009 12:44pm
Quote
There's alot more earnings reports yet to come next week. Besides, the way this market has been going, one may be better off taking a contrarian position when everyone is saying its going up, etc. The market will do its best to embarrass anyone who thinks they know where its going.

Quote
RECOVERY...

Biggest bunch of hog wash I've heard in a while.

The last time the manuar was flying like this was a year ago. I beleve oil was supposed to hit 200.

That didn't quite work out did it.

Window dressing all around us.....When reality hits it will hit hard.

It's quite funny, just sitting smiling to myself as the S. market keeps rising...

DJIA now about to close higher for 5th? day in row...last time it did that was 2 years ago...

Why is everyone buying when our charts are showing Down??? Sheeple or manipulation?

But you are right...all window furniture, but very attractive to the Sheeple.

Im Short until I am proved by PA otherwise. Recession? It's only just begun according to my charts LOL.
  • #184,891
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:46pm Jul 17, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting direct-trade
It's quite funny, just sitting smiling to myself as the S. market keeps rising...

DJIA now about to close higher for 5th? day in row...last time it did that was 2 years ago...

Why is everyone buying when our charts are showing Down??? Sheeple or manipulation?

But you are right...all window furniture, but very attractive to the Sheeple.

Im Short until I am proved by PA otherwise. Recession? It's only just begun according to my charts LOL.
Trade what u see not what u think .. (j/k)
  • #184,892
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:53pm Jul 17, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting mktjong
Trade what u see not what u think .. (j/k)
Grrrrr!!!!

Chart says "Short Long time", was wondering why the world and his dog are Long...

See ya Next week, Im off to annoy more Parisians by asking where I can buy a Surrender Monkey from...

Have a good un and happy trades to ya.
  • #184,893
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:44pm Jul 17, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting quecee5
Well its trading below the daily pivot - we've tested it and if we close below it we are headed further down as indicated by the weekly chart.

Not sure what the significance of 156/157 is. . .

JMHO!
...and if it doesnt close below the DP, in your opinion, does that invalidate the senario for next week or just delay it? As I watch it spike up, lol.

Maybe the last gasp before it gives it up.
  • #184,894
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:45pm Jul 17, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting mktjong
The re-test of 155 scenario is possible. Treasuries is positive today is what holding the Geppy I think..
We are heading there
  • #184,895
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:52pm Jul 17, 2009 1:52pm
The more it rise the more problem the UK will have.
Expecially in Summer. A long term long is not advisable right now . As in august we will drop heavily until december 2009.
  • #184,896
  • Jul 17, 2009 2:07pm Jul 17, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting bluemax
...and if it doesnt close below the DP, in your opinion, does that invalidate the senario for next week or just delay it? As I watch it spike up, lol.

Maybe the last gasp before it gives it up.
As long as it closes below the weekly 5 sma my view remains the same. And it doesn't look like it will close above it today. . . Therefore, until this weeks high is taken I look forward to a nice short ride.

Lets see how it closes today. . .

Have a great weekend!

JMHO!
  • #184,897
  • Edited 2:20pm Jul 17, 2009 2:09pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting Raza
I thought you are probably FRUSTRATED from the market.

I was too ..2 days ago when I sold G/J at 153xx thinking it should dip tp 152.50.. But F** ker took me for a ride of 220 pips.. I did not closed the trade but was ADDING more short... still in loss .. so Finally added more heavy short from the TOP. cashed all of it at 153.23.. TOOK a small loss of 23 pips .. but made a lot more on the way down( Dangerous thing to do.. but my account allows that).. So I do LOOSE...

Then bought good size lots.. when saw the Bullish Divergence.. and made more.....

152.40ish.. Bullish... Friday...lol

Huge 300pip inverted H$S in the makin 15m... 1 hr..

I mentioned Broadenin Wedge.. Falling Wedge.. Break to the up side...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #184,898
  • Jul 17, 2009 2:11pm Jul 17, 2009 2:11pm
I think Mama Bear has been poked in the eye

She is going to wake up on Monday Tokyo session when Japanese are on holiday...
  • #184,899
  • Jul 17, 2009 2:13pm Jul 17, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting quecee5
As long as it closes below the weekly 5 sma my view remains the same. And it doesn't look like it will close above it today. . . Therefore, until this weeks high is taken I look forward to a nice short ride.

Have a great weekend!

JMHO!
Thanks for your thoughts Quecee. Weekly PA certainly looks bearish, just wasnt sure how signiicant the DP was. It may very well get below that as well. Alot can happen in the last hour.

Enjoy your weekend as well.
  • #184,900
  • Jul 17, 2009 2:15pm Jul 17, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting bluemax
Thanks for your thoughts Quecee. Weekly PA certainly looks bearish, just wasnt sure how signiicant the DP was. It may very well get below that as well. Alot can happen in the last hour.

Enjoy your weekend as well.
How it closes is what really counts!
The spike to me was a last gasp and stop loss triggering. . . Nonetheless less than 2 hours before she closes. . .
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