Hi Steve - Hows it going.
Can I ask why you took your last trade - just curious what signal you got - what tf are you looking at.
- #3,702
- Jul 16, 2009 12:10pm Jul 16, 2009 12:10pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Well at last we posted a winner - just closed at 1.4118 for 2.08%.
Did touch nearly 4% whilst I was out and not quite the biggie I was after but nice to stop that streak.
Up 5.6% since going live which is satisfactory considering the conditions.
Next trade London open tomorrow.
Kind Regards
Steve
Did touch nearly 4% whilst I was out and not quite the biggie I was after but nice to stop that streak.
Up 5.6% since going live which is satisfactory considering the conditions.
Next trade London open tomorrow.
Kind Regards
Steve
Long 1.4066 s/l 1.4041
- #3,703
- Jul 16, 2009 12:13pm Jul 16, 2009 12:13pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Hey Stew 
If you look back a page or two you'll see what I'm doing...
Basically whatever the Frankfurt opening hourly bar does, I go against it with 25 pip stop at 1%.
Trade stays on either until stop loss hit or I close at or after London close for a profit.
As it turned out today I went long around the Daily Pivot where it had flirted and managed to secure a small winner.
Kind Regards
Steve
If you look back a page or two you'll see what I'm doing...
Basically whatever the Frankfurt opening hourly bar does, I go against it with 25 pip stop at 1%.
Trade stays on either until stop loss hit or I close at or after London close for a profit.
As it turned out today I went long around the Daily Pivot where it had flirted and managed to secure a small winner.
Kind Regards
Steve
Hi Steve - Hows it going.
Can I ask why you took your last trade - just curious what signal you got - what tf are you looking at.
- #3,704
- Jul 16, 2009 12:33pm Jul 16, 2009 12:33pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: when dreamer meets reality | 1,397 Posts
interesting,
typically Ger stock open will copy dow previous afternoon EST trend to catch up the 2nd half session of previous dow that it missed.
(if dow morning down, afternoon up, asia no news, then europe is open up mostly)
but then some thing may happen later so at US open it may get changed by news or by dow open... that impacts 2nd half of EUR stocks.
another mode is dow close high, but something happen in asia time so EUR and dow future is mixed low, that's for 1st half of EUR stock. (today)
then dow see a gap jump low at open, and then investor senti smooth it back to the rising track. (today)
(worst thing is many times after EUR/UK close, EST afternoon will change again... hoho complicated.)
I did not trade that much but it's kind of lag & correction trading.
it would work best if investors of differnet geo have fixed bias of long/short that is not aligned. so you can see a geographic long/short pattern that correlates with market open time.
typically Ger stock open will copy dow previous afternoon EST trend to catch up the 2nd half session of previous dow that it missed.
(if dow morning down, afternoon up, asia no news, then europe is open up mostly)
but then some thing may happen later so at US open it may get changed by news or by dow open... that impacts 2nd half of EUR stocks.
another mode is dow close high, but something happen in asia time so EUR and dow future is mixed low, that's for 1st half of EUR stock. (today)
then dow see a gap jump low at open, and then investor senti smooth it back to the rising track. (today)
(worst thing is many times after EUR/UK close, EST afternoon will change again... hoho complicated.)
I did not trade that much but it's kind of lag & correction trading.
it would work best if investors of differnet geo have fixed bias of long/short that is not aligned. so you can see a geographic long/short pattern that correlates with market open time.
Hey Stew
If you look back a page or two you'll see what I'm doing...
Basically whatever the Frankfurt opening hourly bar does, I go against it with 25 pip stop at 1%.
Trade stays on either until stop loss hit or I close at or after London close for a profit.
As it turned out today I went long around the Daily Pivot where it had flirted and managed to secure a small winner.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #3,705
- Edited Jul 20, 2009 9:01am Jul 16, 2009 9:45pm | Edited Jul 20, 2009 9:01am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,071 Posts
Yo Steve,,
May I know the analysis behind your SHORT entry...
Pretty bullish looking candle I must say... (see blu rectangle)..
Sonic
Sonic
- #3,706
- Jul 17, 2009 1:09am Jul 17, 2009 1:09am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Yes bileye,
Recently US has reversed any moves made during London which is not great for my method. However it tends to go through phases - the days London reverses the Frankfurt opening bar and then US follows it through are the days I make hay.
I believe the trick is that with any method that is in any way trend based, that you can get through a rangy period at break even or better. When it does break out of that range it's time to make the most of it.
Kind Regards
Steve
Recently US has reversed any moves made during London which is not great for my method. However it tends to go through phases - the days London reverses the Frankfurt opening bar and then US follows it through are the days I make hay.
I believe the trick is that with any method that is in any way trend based, that you can get through a rangy period at break even or better. When it does break out of that range it's time to make the most of it.
Kind Regards
Steve
interesting,
typically Ger stock open will copy dow previous afternoon EST trend to catch up the 2nd half session of previous dow that it missed.
(if dow morning down, afternoon up, asia no news, then europe is open up mostly)
but then some thing may happen later so at US open it may get changed by news or by dow open... that impacts 2nd half of EUR stocks.
another mode is dow close high, but something happen in asia time so EUR and dow future is mixed low, that's for 1st half of EUR stock. (today)
then dow see a gap jump low at open, and...
- #3,707
- Jul 17, 2009 1:11am Jul 17, 2009 1:11am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Hey Sonic,
Thanks for the oversized chart lol!
Anyway, well done on picking the reversal and hope you made a mint on that. Nothing to do with my method but good to see anyone making some pips.
Kind Regards
Steve
Thanks for the oversized chart lol!
Anyway, well done on picking the reversal and hope you made a mint on that. Nothing to do with my method but good to see anyone making some pips.
Kind Regards
Steve
Few days later...
Sonic
- #3,710
- Jul 17, 2009 6:22am Jul 17, 2009 6:22am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Firstly thanks for your kind words & I see that we are both operating a low win rate high r:r strategy.
Yes, I understand completely your points and 13 may not be the biggest string of losers I have to encounter.
All I do know is that I've backtested manually over 1150 'London opening bars' and so far 13 was the worst run in that time.
As I'm sure you know it's not easy taking the losses but I have found that being very disciplined and just taking trade after trade after trade, a winner is always there around the corner
Welcome to the thread & trade well
Kind Regards
Steve
Yes, I understand completely your points and 13 may not be the biggest string of losers I have to encounter.
All I do know is that I've backtested manually over 1150 'London opening bars' and so far 13 was the worst run in that time.
As I'm sure you know it's not easy taking the losses but I have found that being very disciplined and just taking trade after trade after trade, a winner is always there around the corner
Welcome to the thread & trade well
Kind Regards
Steve
Great job there Steve!
I see you very confident on this strategy and this is the best edge a trader can have!
It's the same confidence I finally placed in my strategy, i've struggled for months to find a better system then the one I alredy use, my research gave me just bad results...
So at the end i have a 30% win with a good RR and this is more then enough to have a profitable system...
I don't wanna bring you unlucky things, but don't you think you're a little too optimistic having "just" 13 loss in a row as your biggest DD? think about...
Well, 1150 is a very good backtesting job! so you really have an edge in there...
I don't give too much importance to the entry points, but some time ago i've decided to make a test:
flip of a coin VS entry system! (what a cliche)
well the results didn't really surprised me, but they gave me some more confidence on my system, while the win rate was still the same
30%win/70%loss (not a big surprise), my MaxDD and my equity curve where completly different, using the random entry it was giving me shorter string of losses, and a rollercoaster equity curve, while the "regular entry" where giving longer string of losses and a more linear equity. Thinking about it, it's not so difficult to understand why; the "regular entry" is based on trend following, so no trend no win... while the random entry was giving me some gain even in a no trend situation (counter trend).
So even if the results weren't so different i've made a little step further to the "perfection", in that way i could make a choice: higher maxDD or rollercoaster equity curve? well know what? my Ego decided for me... (i'm a trader i can't base my entry point on a flip of a coin...LOL).
I think trading is all there, get a system a good MM and every day make a little step to make it better...
Maybe you could do a similar test too... what will your Ego tell you??!!
I don't give too much importance to the entry points, but some time ago i've decided to make a test:
flip of a coin VS entry system! (what a cliche
)well the results didn't really surprised me, but they gave me some more confidence on my system, while the win rate was still the same
30%win/70%loss (not a big surprise), my MaxDD and my equity curve where completly different, using the random entry it was giving me shorter string of losses, and a rollercoaster equity curve, while the "regular entry" where giving longer string of losses and a more linear equity. Thinking about it, it's not so difficult to understand why; the "regular entry" is based on trend following, so no trend no win... while the random entry was giving me some gain even in a no trend situation (counter trend).
So even if the results weren't so different i've made a little step further to the "perfection", in that way i could make a choice: higher maxDD or rollercoaster equity curve? well know what? my Ego decided for me...
(i'm a trader i can't base my entry point on a flip of a coin...LOL).I think trading is all there, get a system a good MM and every day make a little step to make it better...
Maybe you could do a similar test too... what will your Ego tell you??!!
Firstly thanks for your kind words & I see that we are both operating a low win rate high r:r strategy.
Yes, I understand completely your points and 13 may not be the biggest string of losers I have to encounter.
All I do know is that I've backtested manually over 1150 'London opening bars' and so far 13 was the worst run in that time.
As I'm sure you know it's not easy taking the losses but I have found that being very disciplined and just taking trade after trade after trade, a winner is always there around the corner
Welcome to the...
- #3,713
- Jul 17, 2009 11:54am Jul 17, 2009 11:54am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Yes, due to a change of circumstances I had to come up with something that would allow me to trade alongside my current commitments.
I knew I would leave for work shortly after London open and that is normally the time where we get a shake out and a direction is set for the session. Therefore the entry is not at all technical, rather a time based entry.
I then looked at when I would be able to exit the trades on a regular basis - yes I do pop back for lunch often but that can be a different time each day so not something that I could reliably backtest. So I decided to look to keep the trade on until at least London close. The exit is rather more technical as I'm looking at the MACD to indicate when to close. I do not close until the end of an houly bar - that way my backtesting can be as reliable as possible. There are occasions when the trade isn't closed until Asia.
OK so I had my system and have tested it using different stop losses to get the best results. 25 pip s/l for 1% is very tight bt as long as you can take the losses, the winners average at 100 or so pips (4%). A 50 pip stop loss for example gave me more winners, however the ROI most months would have been far less.
I know it will work better in a trendy market, however, it doesnt kill you during the range either.
I must admit some mornings I would never enter my position if I was trading using price action - for example this morning after frankfurt hourly bar most were screaming short. Yes I was stopped out 5 hours later on a spike but if I'd been a bit luckier would be on nearly 2% now.
Luck is always a factor. Stop losses miss by a pip or two and you stay in a trade that nets you 5% or they get hit by a pip or two and you miss out. Evens out over time.
Anyhow, enough of my ramblings, I should be smiling, the England cricket team are having a good day against those Aussies
Kind Regards
Steve
I knew I would leave for work shortly after London open and that is normally the time where we get a shake out and a direction is set for the session. Therefore the entry is not at all technical, rather a time based entry.
I then looked at when I would be able to exit the trades on a regular basis - yes I do pop back for lunch often but that can be a different time each day so not something that I could reliably backtest. So I decided to look to keep the trade on until at least London close. The exit is rather more technical as I'm looking at the MACD to indicate when to close. I do not close until the end of an houly bar - that way my backtesting can be as reliable as possible. There are occasions when the trade isn't closed until Asia.
OK so I had my system and have tested it using different stop losses to get the best results. 25 pip s/l for 1% is very tight bt as long as you can take the losses, the winners average at 100 or so pips (4%). A 50 pip stop loss for example gave me more winners, however the ROI most months would have been far less.
I know it will work better in a trendy market, however, it doesnt kill you during the range either.
I must admit some mornings I would never enter my position if I was trading using price action - for example this morning after frankfurt hourly bar most were screaming short. Yes I was stopped out 5 hours later on a spike but if I'd been a bit luckier would be on nearly 2% now.
Luck is always a factor. Stop losses miss by a pip or two and you stay in a trade that nets you 5% or they get hit by a pip or two and you miss out. Evens out over time.
Anyhow, enough of my ramblings, I should be smiling, the England cricket team are having a good day against those Aussies
Kind Regards
Steve
Well, 1150 is a very good backtesting job! so you really have an edge in there...
I don't give too much importance to the entry points, but some time ago i've decided to make a test:
flip of a coin VS entry system! (what a cliche
well the results didn't really surprised me, but they gave me some more confidence on my system, while the win rate was still the same
30%win/70%loss (not a big surprise), my MaxDD and my equity curve where completly different, using the random entry it was giving me shorter string of losses, and a rollercoaster...
- #3,716
- Jul 20, 2009 2:35am Jul 20, 2009 2:35am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
Anyhow, enough of my ramblings, I should be smiling, the England cricket team are having a good day against those Aussies
Kind Regards
Steve
They always seem to produce a player like this don't they
.Why can't they be like us and just play the game for fun - they always want to win. It's just not cricket, is it?
- #3,717
- Edited 6:45am Jul 20, 2009 6:16am | Edited 6:45am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Just popped back for lunch - my trade is up 2.5% & the Aussies are 8 down!!!! Come on England
Agree with you re Clarke Peter - he looks a class act
Kind Regards
Steve
Yay!!!! We won!!!!!!!!!
Agree with you re Clarke Peter - he looks a class act
Kind Regards
Steve
Yay!!!! We won!!!!!!!!!
I can see that Clarke being a pain in the ass for years to come.
They always seem to produce a player like this don't they
Why can't they be like us and just play the game for fun - they always want to win. It's just not cricket, is it?