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Damion's Tribute

  • #161
  • Jul 14, 2009 12:44am Jul 14, 2009 12:44am
Quoting finswin56
Thank you everyone for your contributions. There is gold in this thread. Somethings I feel pretty solid on from previous learning, and some of them are helping to solidify what I felt I knew, but wasn't 100% on.
This is really a treat.

BTW, soya, I'm glad to see you're tracking that AUD/CAD potential set up as well. Since most of my focus in on the daily charts, that one is really sticking out to me.

I'm a little late tonight, but here is a trade that sticks out to me. It happens right at a 50% ret, strong former R now hopefully S, and...
I saw this as well, I am very interested in this trade too, but do not rush into the trade yet, wait for our confirmation candle.

I know I've said I don't trade fundamentals, but equities earnings are due for this quarter, beginning with goldman tonight. We should lookout for market sentiment here, sometimes it can drive prices wild and even the best of setups will fail. The market is just absurdly random

And I like how you are taking a patient approach in trading. Looking good =)
  • #162
  • Jul 14, 2009 12:59am Jul 14, 2009 12:59am
Quoting finswin56
What do you folks think about the price action in many of the JPY crosses, and the NZD/USD (AUD/USD kind of too). That looks like some pretty strong signs of a bottom to me. At the same time, maybe we'll see some PA as the pair is right at a TL. I don't have the Fib on there, but it is also right at the 38.2% ret.
Very nice, you are obviously paying attention to the right details, your thoughts are exactly what went through my head when I was looking at the charts last evening. The price action at the support level is sticking out so strongly and it's telling us something yeah, it is also at the 50% retracement of the main move up since the beginning of this year. If you look at my EJ post earlier, you will also see that price is reacting to a TL too.

Nevertheless, the main move since the beg of 09 has been broken, technically this pair is in a down trend on the 4h charts. So where do we go from here? Just WAIT. =) We have to let price show us the way now. There are a couple of ways you can trade this though, but if you want to go short, I would prefer trading the breakout of that strong support level. Even if a good CF forms at the 4h downtrendline now, there is too much support south, you might want to take a short trade using 1h chart and go to b/e asap.
  • #163
  • Jul 14, 2009 3:45am Jul 14, 2009 3:45am
I have set a buy limit order at what I think is the cheapest point I would like to buy.

This is my trading plan for the CAD.

Probabilities #1 - The trade might not get filled. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #2 - The trade might go against me. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #3 - The trade might not hit profit target. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."

Probabilities #4 - The trade will hit my profit target. So what - "You are only as good as your last trade. Time to move on."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD - trade - 14th July 2009.jpg Size: 135 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #164
  • Edited 5:20am Jul 14, 2009 5:04am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting aftab
Guys, see the chart posted this morning and see the chart posted 12 hrs later.

Notice the difference.
Keep this one tight.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP - 12 hrs later-2.jpg Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP - 15Mins.jpg Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP - 15Mins - 1.jpg Size: 111 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #165
  • Jul 14, 2009 5:35am Jul 14, 2009 5:35am
Quoting soyabean
Very nice, you are obviously paying attention to the right details, your thoughts are exactly what went through my head when I was looking at the charts last evening. The price action at the support level is sticking out so strongly and it's telling us something yeah, it is also at the 50% retracement of the main move up since the beginning of this year. If you look at my EJ post earlier, you will also see that price is reacting to a TL too.

Nevertheless, the main move since the beg of 09 has been broken, technically this pair is in a [b]down...
Thanks for the compliments, and no worries about rushing trades here. I probably under trade, if there is such a thing.

The breakout play does seem to be the best way to go with those pairs. Since most seem pretty well correlated at this point, I would tend to focus on one, or two pairs. USD/JPY looks the best to me right now as the base it put in seems to be the strongest. This would lead me to believe the breakout of that level would be of similar strength. After that I like the Kiwi.
  • #166
  • Jul 14, 2009 5:48am Jul 14, 2009 5:48am
Quoting aftab
Keep this one tight.
Hi aftab. Your harmonics lessons. I just got a harmonics pdf/book that I'm looking forward to digging into. Hopefully, I'll gain a little more insight.

On this EUR/GBP setup that you've noted here:
I saw this one as well (probably more luck that skill at this point.)
Am I seeing your trade correctly in that you entered on a bullish engulfing with a stop under the previous low?

Would your first profit target be a 100% FIB extension?
  • #167
  • Edited 6:33am Jul 14, 2009 5:48am | Edited 6:33am
Quote
I have set a buy limit order at what I think is the cheapest point I would like to buy.

This is my trading plan for the CAD.

Probabilities #1 - The trade might not get filled. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #2 - The trade might go against me. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #3 - The trade might not hit profit target. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."

Probabilities #4 - The trade will hit my profit target. So what - "You are only as good as your last trade. Time...

Ucad will soon be hitting its crown tgt that i took on 1htf at ur entry price. at that i will expect a pull back! i will only short but ur long shd be sweet as well. u r awesome and on fire!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #168
  • Jul 14, 2009 6:11am Jul 14, 2009 6:11am
Quoting finswin56
Hi aftab. Your harmonics lessons. I just got a harmonics pdf/book that I'm looking forward to digging into. Hopefully, I'll gain a little more insight.

On this EUR/GBP setup that you've noted here:
I saw this one as well (probably more luck that skill at this point.)
Am I seeing your trade correctly in that you entered on a bullish engulfing with a stop under the previous low?

Would your first profit target be a 100% FIB extension?
Mate,

I like this trade as much as you do. Honestly I am not trading this pair or else I would have posted a Picasso painting - my chart.

The entry and the stop is something that I have there, for people who want to trade it.

If there was an ABCD on the 4 hrs, I would have traded it a little above.

Because I do not like this trade, I would only trade it on my terms - a lower entry and lower stop loss - and hope I do not get filled. That is if I am trading it.

My profit targets are 61.8, 78.6, 127 & 161 always. Since I trade only 1 mini alot my profit target is 61.8%. All my R:R are calculated on my first profit target.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #169
  • Jul 14, 2009 6:57am Jul 14, 2009 6:57am
Quoting Naijafx
Ucad will soon be hitting its crown tgt that i took on 1htf at ur entry price. at that i will expect a pull back! i will only short but ur long shd be sweet as well. u r awesome and on fire!
Nice chart Mike.

Personally I find price plays out well to the extension tool as compared to the fib tool. That is just something personal.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #170
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:17am Jul 14, 2009 7:17am
Quoting finswin56
Thanks for the compliments, and no worries about rushing trades here. I probably under trade, if there is such a thing.

The breakout play does seem to be the best way to go with those pairs. Since most seem pretty well correlated at this point, I would tend to focus on one, or two pairs. USD/JPY looks the best to me right now as the base it put in seems to be the strongest. This would lead me to believe the breakout of that level would be of similar strength. After that I like the Kiwi.
From a statistical viewpoint, you can consider trading the GBPJPY or EURJPY, since these 2 pairs have the strongest price movement and trends really beautifully along with UJ. Up to personal risk appetite, all the best!

I agree with your view, a break of such strong support level usually follows with a strong move.
  • #171
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:19am Jul 14, 2009 7:19am
Quoting aftab
Keep this one tight.
Nice, looking good
  • #172
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:20am Jul 14, 2009 7:20am
Quoting Naijafx
Ucad will soon be hitting its crown tgt that i took on 1htf at ur entry price. at that i will expect a pull back! i will only short but ur long shd be sweet as well. u r awesome and on fire!
Nice short there Mike. I like the setup.
  • #173
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:46am Jul 14, 2009 7:46am
Quoting aftab
I have set a buy limit order at what I think is the cheapest point I would like to buy.

This is my trading plan for the CAD.

Probabilities #1 - The trade might not get filled. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #2 - The trade might go against me. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #3 - The trade might not hit profit target. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."

Probabilities #4 - The trade will hit my profit target. So what - "You are only as good as your last trade. Time to move...
There are two types of greedy people.

1. The ones who love to sell high; and
2. The others who love to buy cheap.

Will close my limit order if it is not filled once price makes a higher high.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #174
  • Edited 4:47pm Jul 14, 2009 8:08am | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting aftab
There are two types of greedy people.

1. The ones who love to sell high; and
2. The others who love to buy cheap.

Will close my limit order if it is not filled once price makes a higher high.
Nice Bullish Butterfly as well on the 240 Mins.

Edit: I am sorry this chart is still wrong. Was very exhausted last night. I thought I would leave this chart up just so that people would know that it has been set incorrectly.

The correct chart is posted below. One more thing it is not yet a butterfly, it is still a Gartley. I did not take the lower low into consideration.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD - trade - 14th July 2009 - Butterfly.jpg Size: 125 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD - trade - 14th July 2009 - Not Butterfly - Gartley.jpg Size: 142 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #175
  • Jul 14, 2009 8:21am Jul 14, 2009 8:21am
Quoting aftab
I have set a buy limit order at what I think is the cheapest point I would like to buy.

This is my trading plan for the CAD.

Probabilities #1 - The trade might not get filled. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #2 - The trade might go against me. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."


Probabilities #3 - The trade might not hit profit target. So what - "Next Trade is round the corner."

Probabilities #4 - The trade will hit my profit target. So what - "You are only as good as your last trade. Time to move...
Finally filled. My worries are now over.

See you in the morning.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #176
  • Jul 14, 2009 4:42pm Jul 14, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting aftab
Finally filled. My worries are now over.

See you in the morning.
So what are the lessons learnt from this trade? Think about candlesticks?
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #177
  • Jul 14, 2009 5:33pm Jul 14, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting D liberators
So what are the lessons learnt from this trade? Think about candlesticks?
D liberators,

There is a trader on this board who is a CTA and an Olympic champion. No names at this point in time.

I have two banker friends - one trades stocks and the other currencies.

Sure they look at candles but if you ask them how they trade (I have asked them and they have told me..so this is how I know), they call it "Contrarian Trading." At first I asked him what that meant - and he told me when, the market is buying, we are selling. They do not look at confirming candle sticks - no way. He also told me, that the more successful traders - trade in this way.

The short of this is, they sell at the right fib levels (usually) - at the other times their stops are so large that guys like you and me would die a few times if price went even half towards their stops.

So, personally, I do look at candles, and I don't as well. Since, I have started using this system, I have lost more trades than won - simply because of not drawing trendlines correctly or by not doing a correct analysis as above.

On the other hand my winning trades, are in the green even before the trades are taken.

Nonetheless, I am still up. Now, if I have to trade after confirmation, I would be in the red. Let me also add, that when I started trading, I use to wait for confirming candles. My stops huge and R:Rs small.

What I feel most happy about, is I have taken on a trade with minimal risk, at a good point. I was either right or wrong - for 31 pips.


I like to be right or wrong - quickly with minimal risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD - trade - 14th July 2009 - Not Butterfly - Gartley.jpg Size: 183 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #178
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:25pm Jul 14, 2009 7:25pm
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Hi fellas,

I been away for a day and the thread is bombastically fantastic.Great to see all the analysis based on this system.Keep it up guys.I was away,with my wife in hospital in the delivery room for our 3rd child.Mike, bro its a girl.I hope she will trade ABCD as good as you guys here on day.I hope I get all the support in teaching ABCD from you guys LOL.
Sorry for that joke guys, just groggy mind and 2 hrs sleep ,talking there..., so no trade for me this couple of days.You guys have a great pip measuring and harvesting you hear.LOL.Me, I m hitting the sack and with my new baby.So no trade for at least 36 hrs LOL.

p.s Aftab, I too was expecting the reversal on the looney but it was a good analysis, stalking and waiting, but this one ( 4hr tf) slipped.As you said another set up will come.I love trading like this.

cheers guys ( Soya, Mike, Aftab, D and fin and everyone) and all the best.
  • #179
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:28pm Jul 14, 2009 7:28pm
D liberators,

This is an example of the trade going right without looking at candle sticks.

Again this is only my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY - 15 Mins - 14th July 2009.jpg Size: 140 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #180
  • Jul 14, 2009 7:34pm Jul 14, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting Nimrod
Hi fellas,

I been away for a day and the thread is bombastically fantastic.Great to see all the analysis based on this system.Keep it up guys.I was away,with my wife in hospital in the delivery room for our 3rd child.Mike, bro its a girl.I hope she will trade ABCD as good as you guys here on day.I hope I get all the support in teaching ABCD from you guys LOL.
Sorry for that joke guys, just groggy mind and 2 hrs sleep ,talking there..., so no trade for me this couple of days.You guys have a great pip measuring and harvesting you hear.LOL.Me, I m...
Hey Congrats Nimrod. With your daughter keeping you awake all night long you will never miss a trade.

Nimrod, too much of trading will make us mad. Guys like you and news like this makes this thread lively.

I did not ask you which country you are from.

Take care.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
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