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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #281
  • Jul 13, 2009 8:04am Jul 13, 2009 8:04am
Quoting Zeroh
Far as I understand through Bloomberg, people dived into commodities as the US dollar sunk and stocks and commodities surged as a safe haven against the dollar.
I have to agree that it was very wise deals.

upon Fed print money on march (in the mean time ch cent bank also print a lot of money)...

stocks and futures and realestate rised a lot.
I think it's ~ +30% VS beginning of year.

there is always a relatively under-valued property we can jump in and hold as safety heaven, if holding 3 months w/o leverage then spread/commission is a don't care.

it's just like shopping from 2nd hand market... bargain price. very safe and secure way of keeping money value.
  • #282
  • Jul 13, 2009 10:24am Jul 13, 2009 10:24am
stay in 60 - 70 area

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pivot tricks

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  • #283
  • Jul 13, 2009 9:51pm Jul 13, 2009 9:51pm
What do you guys think will go now for oil price?
Just a monkey who love to dance and laugh. {Promotion Removed}
  • #284
  • Jul 14, 2009 1:55am Jul 14, 2009 1:55am
Quoting sanzaru
What do you guys think will go now for oil price?
from my weekly chart it looks like the oil will going down again toward fibo retracement level or will break a new low to form a divergence pattern to end the downtrend, i think this trend will take us until next couple month to see where the oil price will hold up again.
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  • #285
  • Jul 14, 2009 3:41am Jul 14, 2009 3:41am
Mmhh.. the gold should be in correlation bearish with oil.

Ok ok.. thx for the information matobe.
Just a monkey who love to dance and laugh. {Promotion Removed}
  • #286
  • Jul 19, 2009 3:38am Jul 19, 2009 3:38am
jason hasn't publish any new thinking on oil?

will it back to top or 50% fib? I used your cfd acc which works well.

Quoting Jason Rogers
Maybe oil has fallen into the same trading range that has sucked in the USD pairs.
  • #287
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:23am Jul 20, 2009 8:23am
Quoting billye
jason hasn't publish any new thinking on oil?

will it back to top or 50% fib? I used your cfd acc which works well.
As of now, I'm not so sure

I had been watching the fibonacci retracement, but now that we've bounced back, I'm waiting for something decisive to happen. I haven't sorted out the variables such as talk of limits on speculation in oil futures by Congress, more unrest in Nigeria causing even lower production, bottoming of the recession returning demand to commodities, and weaker dollar causing commodity strength... I tend to look for longer term trends rather than intraday.

I'm a bigger believer in AUD/JPY long at the moment and AUD in general so my attention has been distracted as of late.
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  • #288
  • Edited 10:43am Jul 20, 2009 9:02am | Edited 10:43am
J:
why commodity can continue rise? (A)

ps: I got one idea.

could you consider adding oil and gold and sp500 to your buckshop microlots?? say allow trading 10 barrel oil at 600$ and no real order submit to market?

that will be very popular then.

I looked over the net and only found 3 broker that allow trading oil at 600$ position size. they all have cc deposit/withdraw problems.

yours 500 barrel is too big for beginner it doesn't matter if you submit or not submit to market... I watched 7 days before daring to place an hedged order.

Quoting Jason Rogers
As of now, I'm not so sure

I had been watching the fibonacci retracement, but now that we've bounced back, I'm waiting for something decisive to happen. I haven't sorted out the variables such as talk of limits on speculation in oil futures by Congress, more unrest in Nigeria causing even lower production, bottoming of the recession returning demand to commodities, and weaker dollar causing commodity strength... I tend to look for longer term trends rather than intraday.

I'm a bigger believer in AUD/JPY long at the moment and AUD...
  • #289
  • Jul 20, 2009 4:06pm Jul 20, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting billye
J:
why commodity can continue rise? (A)

ps: I got one idea.

could you consider adding oil and gold and sp500 to your buckshop microlots?? say allow trading 10 barrel oil at 600$ and no real order submit to market?

that will be very popular then.

I looked over the net and only found 3 broker that allow trading oil at 600$ position size. they all have cc deposit/withdraw problems.

yours 500 barrel is too big for beginner it doesn't matter if you submit or not submit to market... I watched 7 days before daring to place an hedged order....
Adding oil to micro would be a hard for me to sell, naturally I'm very limited to explaining why...

I don't have a lot of conviction, but my belief is that any rally in oil prices will be due to perceptions of an economic recovery. The stock market strength is doing a good job of spreading that, but I'm all ears to more suggestions.
  • #290
  • Aug 9, 2009 5:51pm Aug 9, 2009 5:51pm
I am hoping to start trading oil soon. My read of all factors tells me that oil prices will go over 100$ by mid 2010. would anyone care to share their predicitions for oil prices in the short term?
  • #291
  • Aug 11, 2009 4:52am Aug 11, 2009 4:52am
Quoting Monaji
I am hoping to start trading oil soon. My read of all factors tells me that oil prices will go over 100$ by mid 2010. would anyone care to share their predicitions for oil prices in the short term?
I don't actually trade oil, but the general consensus is that the price of oil will rise over the next year, as the global demand is geared to increase.
Probability Professor
  • #292
  • Aug 23, 2009 2:11pm Aug 23, 2009 2:11pm
This is my first post on FF...I take the opposite view and believe we will head down from here, we should be at about the highs here, there might be a little more upside driven by the stock market...

Long term I am bullish...medium and short term bearish.

I hedge my view by saying this all depends on dollar strength/weakness. If the dollar strengthens from this point then Oil is in deep trouble due to the short/medium term fundamentals i.e. record inventories, weak global demand, etc

I know there is a strong focus by the oil perma-bulls on peak Oil and Chinese demand, but the US consumes about 21 million bbl/day and China about 8 million bbl/day, the last time I checked China's growth rate in usage is 3.3% per year and I don't believe that makes up for the drop in US demand we are seeing/shall see. Long term this will come into play, but a lot further in the future due to the depth of the crisis we are in.

However if we get the dollar crisis that everyone is looking for at the moment all bets are off as Oil is more about being a dollar hedge at this stage than about the fundamentals of the Oil market. So if you are trading Oil look first to what the dollar is doing.

Also be careful about what is happening with the CFTC in the US, how the ETF's are regulated will have a large impact on the market, look what is already happening with UNG.

When Oil falls it will fall hard like last year, its an investment bubble...like Gold...Natural Gas is one of the few commodities that is really showing the true fundamental picture, all bubbles eventually pop.

I like to challenge my views so short term bulls please fire back...
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #293
  • Aug 28, 2009 12:09pm Aug 28, 2009 12:09pm
Some very well placed market watchers are of the opinion that oil will not break above $80US/bbl this year or next, based on current supply/demand modules. Of course, if an external event takes place to disrupt production, then all bets are off.
  • #294
  • Aug 30, 2009 10:05pm Aug 30, 2009 10:05pm
I Went long with oil, so I think so. Why like someone else posted, I believe demand will return as the global economy recovers and people spend more on energy, furthermore oil reserves are slowly being depleted and we have yet to implement alternative fuel so until we do i am bullish.
  • #295
  • Sep 2, 2009 1:51pm Sep 2, 2009 1:51pm
For the shorter term view (end of october) I see crude oil between $40 and $55 .. could be higher further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised though if we see it at around $30 in the middle of 2010...
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #296
  • Sep 3, 2009 12:25pm Sep 3, 2009 12:25pm
100 - definitely not. I see oil coming down possibly to 55-60 towards the end of the year now that the driving season is ending, stockpiles are higher than in the past years in US, OPEC is overproducing, Japan oil sales have dropped. There really is not fundamental reason for oil to be anywhere higher than 75 for the next few months.
Oil is a rather difficult thing to trade because of a large number of data you need to watch, a lot of which is not free.
  • #297
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:13pm Sep 13, 2009 4:13pm
Mate, from the charts and EW we have only just put in the 3rd wave - prices should peak around $150 Mark my words!
  • #298
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:37pm Sep 13, 2009 6:37pm
I agree I don't see oil above 80 this year ,it will go down from here ,but not much lower then 60 and it will stay between 55-79 till rest of this year,cheers
  • #299
  • Sep 16, 2009 12:35am Sep 16, 2009 12:35am
Quoting Monaji
I am hoping to start trading oil soon. My read of all factors tells me that oil prices will go over 100$ by mid 2010. would anyone care to share their predicitions for oil prices in the short term?
it should be >$150 but not now yet.
  • #300
  • Sep 16, 2009 1:27pm Sep 16, 2009 1:27pm
i agree with wem, in the long run i dont see how oil will not make new highs. in the medium run anything from 50-100 is fair game imo, and short term well we know how that goes.

basically go tell china and india to grow using technology that doesn't require oil, and then we'll have a chance of keeping it under $150.
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