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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #3,681
  • Jul 13, 2009 6:31am Jul 13, 2009 6:31am
Hey Sonic,

Yes, the method basically trades against the Frankfurt hourly bar. I was well aware that it looked bullish but that is not an issue with this. If the bar preceding London open is bullish I'm short & if it's bearish I'm long.

Look back to last good winner (6.65%) on June 24th (set up shown on previous page).

I've backtested manually nearly 5 years - risking 1% a day so a run of losses really isn't a problem as often one or two winners wipes them out in a stroke.

Annoying start to the week but that's life.

Hope you are keeping well by the way

Kind Regards
Steve

PS stopped out 1.3950 - be back at London open tomorrow.
Quoting sonicdeejay
Yo Steve,,

May I know the analysis behind your SHORT entry...

Pretty bullish looking candle I must say... (see blu rectangle)..

Sonic
  • #3,682
  • Jul 13, 2009 3:19pm Jul 13, 2009 3:19pm
Steviet,

Excellent journal. Just got to reading it through last week. Must admit, it was a little heartbreaking to see you score that huge investor, see impressive initial gains and him then take a couple of steps back in the end...but the relentless move forward you're leading should be inspiration to all.

I'll be reading often & contributing when appropriate.
  • #3,683
  • Edited 5:55pm Jul 13, 2009 5:53pm | Edited 5:55pm
Hi Stevie,
Its good to see you back. Did you find it hard to go from one extreme to the other (high win % small wins big losses (-edit ENORMOUS losses); to low win % larger wins than losses)? - Or is it still early days?

Just wondering, since I am trying to move some of my trading in the reverse direction i.e. to high win % (hopefully) small wins larger losses.

Ian
  • #3,684
  • Jul 14, 2009 12:48am Jul 14, 2009 12:48am
Hey thanks Sam & glad you enjoyed the read.

It's certainly been an interesting few years and things never quite go according to plan but yes, as you say, still here trying to squeeze something out of the market lol

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting sam0182
Steviet,

Excellent journal. Just got to reading it through last week. Must admit, it was a little heartbreaking to see you score that huge investor, see impressive initial gains and him then take a couple of steps back in the end...but the relentless move forward you're leading should be inspiration to all.

I'll be reading often & contributing when appropriate.
  • #3,685
  • Jul 14, 2009 1:11am Jul 14, 2009 1:11am
Hi Ian,

In a word, yes!

It's always difficult to come to the realisation that things that were working are no longer working so well and to then try and come up with something that will suit current situation and then make it personal to you.

The mindset is different but I think ultimately you have to have belief in yourself & your method when you take your research into the live arena.

People often comment about why I took this trade, why I didn't take profit here, why keep trades on during big news days etc. Essentially I believe that if one has extensively manually backtested something then it's silly to then not be true to whichever method chosen.

It's all too easy to start messing & fiddling around with trades which would completely skew results.

I'm always reminding myself that there are very few that turn out any sort of consistent profit in this business - heck even the supposed pro's in the big hedge funds are struggling to break even this year.

Reading through most of the forums gives the impression that most are making a killing every day and can make one feel that they are somehow inferior & missing out. Believe me, that really isn't the case!

Wishing you all the best Ian

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Stevie,
Its good to see you back. Did you find it hard to go from one extreme to the other (high win % small wins big losses (-edit ENORMOUS losses); to low win % larger wins than losses)? - Or is it still early days?

Just wondering, since I am trying to move some of my trading in the reverse direction i.e. to high win % (hopefully) small wins larger losses.

Ian
  • #3,686
  • Jul 14, 2009 2:01am Jul 14, 2009 2:01am
Buy 1.3976 s/l 1.3951
  • #3,687
  • Jul 14, 2009 11:42am Jul 14, 2009 11:42am
Quoting steviet
Buy 1.3976 s/l 1.3951
Well was up over 1% at lunch with price at 1.4010 with the possibility of finally getting above 1.4020 & turning resistance into support. But oh no, US session reversed yet again back into this stupid range and just clipped the stop loss. I've calmed down a little now but let's just say when I heard about the stop being hit the language was rather colourful haha.

Last 7 days, London open price hasn't been below 1.3891 or above 1.3976 - tight as a gnat's chuff.

As we approach a month of trading the method, still +4.52% so shouldn't be too unhappy but last 7 days all been losses. I blame it on re-starting the journal

Hopefully EU will at least get above 1.4020 or below 1.3875 in the next day or two as it's starting to get on my wick.

So, same time same place tomorrow and lets see if it wants to play ball.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #3,688
  • Jul 14, 2009 11:47am Jul 14, 2009 11:47am
wow... 3 yr journal & 200 pages. L_O admire.

past many days all ranging then it seems to be choosing a direction, is this understanding right?

Quoting steviet
Well was up over 1% at lunch with price at 1.4010 with the possibility of finally getting above 1.4020 & turning resistance into support. But oh no, US session reversed yet again back into this stupid range and just clipped the stop loss. I've calmed down a little now but let's just say when I heard about the stop being hit the language was rather colourful haha.

Last 7 days, London open price hasn't been below 1.3891 or above 1.3976 - tight as a gnat's chuff.

As we approach a month of trading the method, still +4.52% so shouldn't be too unhappy...
  • #3,689
  • Jul 14, 2009 11:51am Jul 14, 2009 11:51am
I did take a break from the journal but just started up again recently.

Yes, EU really doesn't know where to go right now - a breakout would be preferable for me but the market will do what it wants, not necessarily what I want

Quoting billye
wow... 3 yr journal & 200 pages. L_O admire.

past many days all ranging then it seems to be choosing a direction, is this understanding right?
  • #3,690
  • Jul 14, 2009 1:18pm Jul 14, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting steviet
Well was up over 1% at lunch with price at 1.4010 with the possibility of finally getting above 1.4020 & turning resistance into support. But oh no, US session reversed yet again back into this stupid range and just clipped the stop loss. I've calmed down a little now but let's just say when I heard about the stop being hit the language was rather colourful haha.

Last 7 days, London open price hasn't been below 1.3891 or above 1.3976 - tight as a gnat's chuff.

As we approach a month of trading the method, still +4.52% so shouldn't be too unhappy...
Hi Steve,
Same here, every time I have gone into details as to how I am trading and what my results were then I get hit my repeated losses. Still 7 in a row isn't bad at all I have had as many as 22 losses in a row. - Ooops should'nt have said that, it will probably go to a new record now.

Ian
  • #3,691
  • Jul 14, 2009 1:48pm Jul 14, 2009 1:48pm
LOL Ian,

Backtesting I did have a few runs of this and worse - 13 was the biggest run.

Not too disheartened at this stage as the average winner turns in at around 4% and with just 1% risk, one win a week gives a break even week.

Biggest daily win on backtesting was a tasty 387 pips or 15.48% - hmm, that would be handy lol.

EU needs to break 1.3875 then 1.3750 for the fun to commence on the downside or 1.4150 then 1.4330 on the upside.

This daily range has been too tight the last couple of weeks but nothing is permanent & the good times will roll again shortly.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Steve,
Same here, every time I have gone into details as to how I am trading and what my results were then I get hit my repeated losses. Still 7 in a row isn't bad at all I have had as many as 22 losses in a row. - Ooops should'nt have said that, it will probably go to a new record now.

Ian
  • #3,692
  • Jul 14, 2009 5:08pm Jul 14, 2009 5:08pm
Happy Trading Steve ...
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #3,693
  • Jul 14, 2009 5:12pm Jul 14, 2009 5:12pm
My goodness!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haven't seen you around for a long long time.

Yes, do start up your journal again - hope you are keeping well

Quoting Pipex
Happy Trading Steve ...
  • #3,694
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:01am Jul 15, 2009 2:01am
Short 1.4055 s/l 1.4080
  • #3,695
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:45am Jul 15, 2009 2:45am
Quoting steviet
LOL Ian,

Backtesting I did have a few runs of this and worse - 13 was the biggest run.

Not too disheartened at this stage as the average winner turns in at around 4% and with just 1% risk, one win a week gives a break even week.

Biggest daily win on backtesting was a tasty 387 pips or 15.48% - hmm, that would be handy lol.

..............................
Steve
Ah backtesting, personally I always apply a factor to backtest results. Depending on the frequency of the strategy of course, on th weekly strats I use, I took 8 yrs of results then multipiled both consecutive losses and maximal drawdown by 2. Only if I could stomach those was the strategy considered.

Cheers,
Ian
  • #3,696
  • Jul 15, 2009 6:14am Jul 15, 2009 6:14am
Stopped out

So after a full month we are at +3.52%

The method is quite capable of big double digit months when the pair actually moves so mustn't be too down.

I just hope this thing breaks upwards now and we get some movement coz I won't be happy if my stop turns out to be the high of the day.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting steviet
Short 1.4055 s/l 1.4080
  • #3,697
  • Jul 15, 2009 6:16am Jul 15, 2009 6:16am
Yes, not a bad idea Ian. Do you also multiply profitable months by two as well?

If so, the method has put in a few 20% + months and a couple of 30+% months too!

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting ianf0ster
Ah backtesting, personally I always apply a factor to backtest results. Depending on the frequency of the strategy of course, on th weekly strats I use, I took 8 yrs of results then multipiled both consecutive losses and maximal drawdown by 2. Only if I could stomach those was the strategy considered.

Cheers,
Ian
  • #3,698
  • Jul 15, 2009 6:28am Jul 15, 2009 6:28am
Quoting steviet
Yes, not a bad idea Ian. Do you also multiply profitable months by two as well?

If so, the method has put in a few 20% + months and a couple of 30+% months too!

Kind Regards
Steve
Steve,
Since the methods I use only trade on a once per week basis, when backtesting I don't consider any P&L on less than an annual basis.
If it has a good profile per year over several (recent) years, has a good profile overall and I can stomach twice the maximal drawdown and twice the max consecutive losing trades, then it passes my tests. So then I will trade it unless I find something better which trades the same currency pair at on the same day at about the same time.

We are both having bad luck with reversals over least 2 weeks - longer than that for me. Sooner or later (sooner please), they will start to trend for longer.

Ian
  • #3,699
  • Jul 15, 2009 6:44am Jul 15, 2009 6:44am
Yeah sorry Ian,

i was talking very much tongue in cheek with my last answer and may have come across not quite as I meant lol.

What you are saying is very true as it's all very well manually backtesting 10 consecutive losses but a different kettle of fish doing it live. Backtesting you can always scroll on a few days and see a couple of 5% wins to compensate for the losing streak but no such way live. That's when our minds can start playing dirty tricks on us and doubts start creeping in.

Testing that hourly bar manually over years and years over very differing market conditions gives me the belief that I can make it profitable on a consistent basis over time.

As you say the last few weeks have been terrible conditions for a method such as mine and I've still come out up by 3.5%, despite the latest run of losses. Who knows? Tomorrow may be a 6% day and all will be forgotten very quickly

Lets hope these markets decide on a direction through the summer & we'll start harvesting them pips once more.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting ianf0ster
Steve,
Since the methods I use only trade on a once per week basis, when backtesting I don't consider any P&L on less than an annual basis.
If it has a good profile per year over several (recent) years, has a good profile overall and I can stomach twice the maximal drawdown and twice the max consecutive losing trades, then it passes my tests. So then I will trade it unless I find something better which trades the same currency pair at on the same day at about the same time.

We are both having bad luck with reversals over least 2 weeks - longer...
  • #3,700
  • Jul 16, 2009 2:00am Jul 16, 2009 2:00am
Long 1.4066 s/l 1.4041
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