Still holding my shorts on both. my TP not it on any yet because i have been taking the TP3 level. On red right now but somehow i know it will it my target... Ace's strategie didnt prove me wrong in all the trades i had on the last month...
Happy piping
Well it wouldnt be the first time... happened 2 weeks ago but still managed to win the double than i lost just following the original rules. We need to wait and see. or do something else like i like to do. Right now its going to be pool time. See ya all soon
Anyone besides me taking the long if we reach 150.89?
Ignored
I cancelled my buy because the ATR (from the bottom set last night) says that the TP4 is unlikely to be reached on a buy. I guess if you're going for something less than the TP4 it may still make sense. See Ace's previous post on the ATR filter for a second entry if your first is stopped out.
I cancelled my buy because the ATR (from the bottom set last night) says that the TP4 is unlikely to be reached on a buy. I guess if you're going for something less than the TP4 it may still make sense. See Ace's previous post on the ATR filter for a second entry if your first is stopped out.
Ignored
ATR indicates that price shouldn't move to 4x TP on GBP/JPY which is why i cancelled the long order as well. Not saying that price will not move up but, on average it won't move to my 4x TP. We're looking at a loss this week, but as always, nothing to be worried about.
Future winners will compensate for the losses, and provide us with a handsome gains
On a side note, i encourage people to look for filters. These filters should be present on the 4Hr and daily. Don't look for filters in time frames lower than that, because they will only hold value for a while, unlike a longer time frame filters. I've got a couple of ideas for filters as well, and will share if I get some interesting feedback.
Also if you have any criticism against the system please share. I really appreciate everyone's thanks but would also like to see some 'negative' feedback as well. That may sound weird, but it allows us to catch problems and tackle them together. Alright guys, lets get thinking.
ATR indicates that price shouldn't move to 4x TP on GBP/JPY which is why i cancelled the long order as well. Not saying that price will not move up but, on average it won't move to my 4x TP. We're looking at a loss this week, but as always, nothing to be worried about.
Future winners will compensate for the losses, and provide us with a handsome gains
On a side note, i encourage people to look for filters. These filters should be present on the 4Hr and daily. Don't look for filters in time frames lower than that, because they will only hold value...
Ignored
Hey Ace I was looking around and wasnt able to find your post on how to use ATR to filter the trades. Just wondering what you do and how you use it.
On a side note, i encourage people to look for filters. These filters should be present on the 4Hr and daily. Don't look for filters in time frames lower than that, because they will only hold value for a while, unlike a longer time frame filters. I've got a couple of ideas for filters as well, and will share if I get some interesting feedback.
Also if you have any criticism against the system please share. I really appreciate everyone's thanks but would also like to see some 'negative' feedback as well. That may sound weird, but it allows us...
Ignored
Not quite a filter, but this refers to what HouseTrader and I elaborated on back in the early pages of this thread.
Are there better solutions to simply using the breakout of the first 4Hr bar?
What about...
If the first 4 one hour bars are in the same direction, does the week finish in that direction?
What if there were two 4 hour bars?
Are what point of the week are most gains realized? Does the movement gradually occur evenly throughout the course of the week? Or is there a large jump which happens Monday/Tuesday/early in the week?
If the first bar of the week on any timeframe (1, 5, etc) is in one direction, does the week finish in the same direction?
What about multiple timeframes? What if the first hour bar, first 30M bar and first 4 HR bar all close in the same direction. Does the week match that direction? What if you use every timeframe? Does the week match that direction?
Just something to think about.
As for my constructive criticism...
The fixed TP bothers me. Fixed TPs tend to work better during fast breakout periods. Try looking for a dynamic way to take your profits. Like, weekly pivot points sound good. Maybe set an inverse relation to the range. If the range is larger, use a smaller multiple, and if the range is smaller, use a larger multiple. Generally speaking, if that first 4h bar is large, the week may have exhausted its momentum, which may require a smaller TP to stay within the week's expected ATR.
Or maybe you can get the average week's ATR (use period 52 for one year), and set your TPs according to that. ATR - (Open - Close of 4 hr bar) and then divide that accordingly, so you have a safety buffer.
I am kinda confused, I read your previous post on the ATR filter ace. But, how does one figure from the ATR(16) you said you use, with the little decimal number say 3.123...
How does one figure it most likely wont hit a certain TP that week? say TP3 or TP4...how can you tell?
Thanks
put the atr indicator on a weekly chart and multiply that number by 100. Say the atr is 600 and your sl is 100. If price moves down 300 pips and does not hit tp 4 (400 pips) level and then moves up and triggers the trade long the likelyhood of the long position hitting tp4 is not very good. You would have to have a weekly range of 800 pips to hit tp4 when atr is telling you to only expect 600 pips total movement for the week. You could try reducing to tp2 on the second trade if it was within the realm of the atr.
I am kinda confused, I read your previous post on the ATR filter ace. But, how does one figure from the ATR(16) you said you use, with the little decimal number say 3.123...
How does one figure it most likely wont hit a certain TP that week? say TP3 or TP4...how can you tell?
Thanks
Ignored
ATR(16) can be directly translated to the average range of the past 16 bars.
Again, keep in mind that range is the high minus low of the bar.
For instance, on a 1 hour chart, the past 16 candles had an average range of 50 pips. For GBP/JPY, this will be shown as 0.5000.
If the average true range was 100 pips, then it would read 1.0000
750 pips = 7.5000
754 pips = 7.5400
2520 pips = 25.2000
Essentially you move the decimal two places to the right and it will be the range. This is only for the JPY pairs, for the other pairs, there is a slight change.
So, how do we use this for the 4H Box Breakout? Its pretty simple, attach an ATR(16) on a weekly chart. On the chart this will read a number, and this number is the average range, for the past 16 weeks (4 months).
Once we know the average range, we go back to out 4Hr chart and implement to idea. I'll illustrate with a situation.
Say we know that the ATR of the week is 600 pips. Let's also assume that the box range is 100 pips. If we get a break of the lower boundary and the prices moves 300 pips to the downside, we would cancel the long order. Why? simple because, in order for our TP4 of +400 to be activated the price would have to move 700 pips (300+400) from its current position.
*I use ATR(16) because it shows the average for the past quarter which I think is a good indication.
*Also keep in mind that sometimes, price moves irregularly. Doesn't happen too much, but it can happen. So the ATR is not 100% accurate, but it is pretty reliable.
Some of the content of this pdf file, which Edgetrader posted to his C4 thread, has relevance to this thread - check out the GBPJPY examples.
Ace - I like your simple use of ATR as a filter for taking the reversal trade. However, I'd consider taking that reversal trade if the ATR suggests that the TP2 is within likely range, as this would bring the week to b/e after a losing trade (but I'd at the very least do a visual backtest first, which I'm not going to do as I've already taken an alternative approach described earlier.)
and a 5*. 
