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Do you still believe in the perfect trading system?

  • #161
  • Edited 9:15am Jul 3, 2009 6:00am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting hanover
IMO it is 100% strategy, 100% MM, and 100% emotional self-control. Because if any one of these factors is missing you will lose.

If emotions were the major problem, then more EAs would be long-term profitable. EAs can adhere to strict MM rules, and trade with with perfect discipline. Therefore any failure must be strategy related.
Automated trading programs fail because they don't know how to interrupt or stay abreast of breaking fundamental news. The market is far too HUMAN for any simple lines of codes to MASTER. A good trading strategy involves logic as well as HUMAN INSTINCT, and human instinct is tied to emotional discipline.
Binary Options Trader
  • #162
  • Jul 3, 2009 6:04pm Jul 3, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting highway
Yes

But had taken many hours to have arrived there.


the same thing for me :->
But not just many hours, actually many months !!
  • #163
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:42am Jul 4, 2009 9:42am
Yes.
For me , Holy grail is about personal the best winning way in trade.
I believed , finally evry traders will find it because each people has "survival" insting inside that will lead into the right path.
What do we need is just learn and learn , practice and practice.... your "Self" will teach you. All of this need "time"... how long time will need , is parameter for the differentiation of dumb and smart traders.
  • #164
  • Jul 4, 2009 11:42am Jul 4, 2009 11:42am
Quoting tunera
Oh no excuseme, i don't mean "holy grail" as an indicator or a strategy that make you milionaire without work, infact holy-grail is maybe a wrong term to use, mm let's see how to define what i mean..

I mean, the holy grail, as a "trading-style", of course it come with a big work and some long experience, but what i really mean with "holy grail" is a strategy (surely an extreme complex one) that let the trader use the market as an ATM machine.

Of course it require hard work and experience, but that was obvious
Yes and it is simpler than you think. Assume the market is a coin toss, heads up and tails down. You, the trader, must guess heads/tails. Over the long haul the market will tend (trend) to 50/50. If you vary your guess, you have a chance (though slight) of always guessing wrong. If you only pick heads, the chance of you always guessing wrong is extremely slight.

How to make this work for you? As you can probably guess from my name, I trade GBPUSD. The average H1 range is over 30 pips. If I always trade short and set my stop at 10 pips, I am in a position to make 30 or more pips when the GBPUSD goes on a run. That more than makes up for my losses.

H1 chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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M5 chart with H1 background:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading only once per hour prevents getting "chopped to death". It's either a loss, no trade or a win. Knowing when to quit while ahead is what separates the winners from the losers in gambling and in trading.
  • #165
  • Jul 4, 2009 12:44pm Jul 4, 2009 12:44pm
IMHO knowing when not to quit (i.e. let winning trades run) is what separates the winners from the losers.
  • #166
  • Jul 4, 2009 3:34pm Jul 4, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting usdivers
My Holy Grail....lol...at the moment anyway
Dude hope this is on a demo account?

Z
  • #167
  • Jul 4, 2009 3:36pm Jul 4, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting SunTrader
IMHO knowing when not to quit (i.e. let winning trades run) is what separates the winners from the losers.
Still doesn't answer the main question: Do You Believe in the "Holy Grail"?

Z
  • #168
  • Jul 4, 2009 4:05pm Jul 4, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
IMHO knowing when not to quit (i.e. let winning trades run) is what separates the winners from the losers.
Knowing "when not to quit", implies knowing when to quit. Conversely, know when to quit implies knowing when not to quit.

The question, "Is it time to quit?", is the question to be answered.

If the answer is, "No, it is not time to quit. Let the winning trade run.", then that implies at some point in the future you will decide it is time to quit. That brings us back to my original statement.

"Knowing" implies having the skill to determine under what conditions it is best to let a winning trade run and under which conditions to exit. However, you can never know the outcome of your decision in advance.
  • #169
  • Jul 4, 2009 4:18pm Jul 4, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting zuret9
Still doesn't answer the main question: Do You Believe in the "Holy Grail"?

Z
I answered previously that the only Holy Grail is in the Monty Python movie of the same name.

Trading correctly, profitably, consistently is my goal, not grail.
  • #170
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:13pm Jul 4, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting gbppip
However, you can never know the outcome of your decision in advance.
Absolutely.

Quoting gbppip
Knowing when to quit while ahead is what separates the winners from the losers in gambling and in trading.
But this doesn't agree with above quote.

My idea is, maybe yours also, letting winners run by letting the market make the decision for me by taking out a trailing stop. Unlike the majority of trades who scream when their broker hits their stop.

And also having a initial hard stop for any losing trades so they don't 'run'.
  • #171
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:38pm Jul 4, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting SunTrader
I answered previously that the only Holy Grail is in the Monty Python movie of the same name.

Trading correctly, profitably, consistently is my goal, not grail.
My apologies

Z
  • #172
  • Jul 4, 2009 7:43pm Jul 4, 2009 7:43pm
Quoting SunTrader
Absolutely.


But this doesn't agree with above quote.

My idea is, maybe yours also, letting winners run by letting the market make the decision for me by taking out a trailing stop. Unlike the majority of trades who scream when their broker hits their stop.

And also having a initial hard stop for any losing trades so they don't 'run'.
Indeed!
  • #173
  • Jul 5, 2009 1:53am Jul 5, 2009 1:53am
Quoting Yoda_Glenn
Automated trading programs fail because they don't know how to interrupt or stay abreast of breaking fundamental news. The market is far too HUMAN for any simple lines of codes to MASTER. A good trading strategy involves logic as well as HUMAN INSTINCT, and human instinct is tied to emotional discipline.
Fair enough. Everybody seems to see the method/MM/mindset balance differently. So let's not debate semantics; at the end of the day, profit is the universal goal.
  • #174
  • Jul 6, 2009 5:14am Jul 6, 2009 5:14am
Quoting Lionstrike
aediaz1, I am not a newbie to this. I'm probably not as good as you, but I understand money management. If you study the works of, say, Ralph Vince, or the Kelly formula and do some figuring you can see that trading anything less than the Kelly is not optimal in money management.
I just don't understand why people tend to complicate something perfectly simple. I have yet to see any professionals use all these crazy MM formulas for trading. It seems to me that you try to compensate for a poor system using this type of MM.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #175
  • Jul 6, 2009 5:49am Jul 6, 2009 5:49am
Quoting aediaz1
I just don't understand why people tend to complicate something perfectly simple. I have yet to see any professionals use all these crazy MM formulas for trading. It seems to me that you try to compensate for a poor system using this type of MM.
Some of the pro-traders I know use variations of optimal MM in their trading, but almost all think that Kelly is too aggressive.

It all depends on your approach and whether each set up you enter has, in your opinion, a 50/50 chance of success or better (or worse!).

Different strokes for different folks.
  • #176
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:47pm Jul 11, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting AstonDan
Some of the pro-traders I know use variations of optimal MM in their trading, but almost all think that Kelly is too aggressive.

It all depends on your approach and whether each set up you enter has, in your opinion, a 50/50 chance of success or better (or worse!).

Different strokes for different folks.
That's what makes trading trading.
  • #177
  • Jul 13, 2009 10:25am Jul 13, 2009 10:25am
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience

that's it. everything else falls under that. the only way to actually become successful in the market is to gain experience in trading. it will eventually come to you. the hardest part is that you just need to be able to stay in the market long enough. and THAT is why most traders fail. not because they are retarded, not because they'll never learn to trade, but because they weren't able to stay in the market long enough. if you trade for five or six years (minimum) you will start to learn how the markets work. you will eventually be able to trade off of your knowledge.

all the indicators, fundies, technicals, systems, EAs, and all that other stuff is NOT going to make you profitable. granted, a lot of it does work, but only at certain times and only for a period of time. your experience, knowledge, and wisdom, however, will be the only things that make you profitable in the long run.
  • #178
  • Jul 13, 2009 12:30pm Jul 13, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting blacksun1
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience
experience

that's it. everything else falls under that. the only way to actually become successful in the market is to gain experience in trading. it will eventually come to you. the hardest part is that you just need to be able to stay in the market long enough. and THAT is why most traders fail. not because they are retarded, not because they'll never learn to trade, but because they weren't...
OMG this is spectacular !!! (standing ovation)
  • #179
  • Jul 14, 2009 8:37pm Jul 14, 2009 8:37pm
Quote
if you trade for five or six years (minimum) you will start to learn how the markets work. you will eventually be able to trade off of your knowledge.

OK, I will bite. How do the markets work?

I know that once I enter a trade, if price moves against me, I can minimize the loss and if I am "lucky" and price moves for me, I can take profit.

I can choose when I enter a trade, whether I enter long or short, my position size and my stop loss. Those are under my control. If I enter a take profit order, the market may or may not reach it. All I can do is watch and wait.
  • #180
  • Jul 14, 2009 8:43pm Jul 14, 2009 8:43pm
My "holyGrail" was EA trading.No more emotional rampages against my computer(or kids) when things turn ugly. Like Gbppip says: all u can do is watch and wait after u pull trigger. My EA picks entries/manages trade/closes. I know its basic but I failed miserably at manual trading. And buying new computers(and kids) was proving expensive.
FF = Forex Faggots
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