Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 437 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #8,721
  • Jul 10, 2009 6:50am Jul 10, 2009 6:50am
Quoting fti
never forget that all giant businesses started such. And under super stewartship became what they are.
Not sure GM has found the right stewardship yet, but time will tell. However, am pretty sure that Obama and Pelosi are not the right people to make big decisions for GM, so prospects are poor. Back to trading: waiting on a decision to go long on E/$, maybe the E/J. Deep breath now and focus.
Edit: Nope, not going long anything here. Will wait for better opty to short or will be done for the day.
  • #8,722
  • Jul 10, 2009 6:53am Jul 10, 2009 6:53am
Quoting GEfx
Not sure GM has found the right stewardship yet, but time will tell. However, am pretty sure that Obama and Pelosi are not the right people to make big decisions for GM, so prospects are poor. Back to trading: waiting on a decision to go long on E/$, maybe the E/J. Deep breath now and focus.
Edit: Nope, not going long anything here. Will wait for better opty to short or will be done for the day.
Its easy to judge, hard to build.

Goodnite all.
nice weekend.
  • #8,723
  • Jul 10, 2009 6:55am Jul 10, 2009 6:55am
Army back home, Michigan Index

Good night, Sir! Have a nice weekend!
  • #8,724
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:08am Jul 10, 2009 7:08am
Quoting fti
Its easy to judge, hard to build.

Goodnite all.
nice weekend.
Have a good weekend fti. I am done for the week. See you all next week
  • #8,725
  • Edited 9:44am Jul 12, 2009 12:00am | Edited 9:44am
Sunday morning drive, back from sunrise and sea, sunday morning laz....y

DOnt Worry BABY
Inserted Video

koko mo
Inserted Video

Namida no Kiss
Inserted Video

Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow
Inserted Video
  • #8,726
  • Jul 12, 2009 7:30am Jul 12, 2009 7:30am
Nice sunny morning here, and will be off to church later. I have been reading some of the other threads on FF and am amazed at how much fighting and abuse goes on in some of them. I am happy that on this thread, everyone stays civil and positive. I believe, fti, you have set a very professional and proper tone here. Nicely done.

I was taken by the number of people on other threads who are asking the question, "What do you think will happen Monday?" as if there is an answer to that question. The best response was, "We'll know on Tuesday". LOL

fti, I am grateful to you for the time and effort that you have and continue to put in this thread. During the trading day, it gives me a nice place to jump in and out of to clear my head and get some insight on what others are seeing in the market, not to mention the music links. Then when I go back to trading, I can focus better on trading. Again, thanks.
  • #8,727
  • Edited 10:51am Jul 12, 2009 9:56am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting GEfx
Nice sunny morning here, and will be off to church later. I have been reading some of the other threads on FF and am amazed at how much fighting and abuse goes on in some of them. I am happy that on this thread, everyone stays civil and positive. I believe, fti, you have set a very professional and proper tone here. Nicely done.

I was taken by the number of people on other threads who are asking the question, "What do you think will happen Monday?" as if there is an answer to that question. The best response was, "We'll know on Tuesday"....
Thank You for your kind words.

It takes more than one to make a community. Like karen always says,Takes more than one hand to clap. Unfortunately, some don't speak, and we lost some people along the way. And the lady who asked me to start this in the first instance, leighsww. Life"s like that.
Guess, what the moderators go thru, and the owner of this site.I think is merlin. He gave space for this to happen.

Not forgetting, youtube and the posters there, that Zoran introduced me to, for providing the entertainment.

The people here , everyone plays a part. This thread is by all the lovely people here and for all the lovely people.:
Of course , the more money we make from the markets, the happier we will be.

regards
  • #8,728
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:30am Jul 12, 2009 10:30am
Quoting fti
Thank You for your kind words.

It takes more than one to make a community. Like karen always says,Takes more than one hand to clap. Unfortunately, some don't speak, and we lost some people. And the lady who asked me to start this in the first instance, leighsww. Life"s like that.
Guess, what the moderators go thru, and the owner of this site.I think is merlin. He gave space for this to happen.

Not forgetting, youtube and the posters there, that Zoran introduced me to, for providing the entertainment.

The people here , everyone plays a part....
Hello

Yes, this thread is really full of wisdom not only about trading, but generally abot life. Hope you Fti will keep posting your teachings , even if everything worthwhile is alredy presented.
Anyway thanks master
the worst horse can be the best one
  • #8,729
  • Edited 10:45am Jul 12, 2009 10:32am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting Ronin
Hello

Yes, this thread is really full of wisdom not only about trading, but generally abot life. Hope you Fti will keep posting your teachings , even if everything worthwhile is alredy presented.
Anyway thanks master
you're welcome, Ronin.
In reality,trading is my life. Gave up ceo/ed position for the time to do it again.

And I am now in music meditation after a good nap, waiting for my life to start again in half a days time.
  • #8,730
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:53am Jul 12, 2009 10:53am
Quoting fti
you're welcome, Ronin.
In reality,trading is my life. Gave up ceo position for the time to do it.

And I am now in music meditation after a good nap, waiting for my life to start again in half a days time.
Actually trading is my life too, I knew I wanted to be a trader since I was 10. Only that now I can see the scorpions that I have to face before it will happen , and meditation it helped me a lot.

And for know preparing myself because tommorow I'm back on the battlefield.

PS. also trading has something mistical in itself like the way of the warrior, no BS ,no salesmanship , just eat what you kill.
the worst horse can be the best one
  • #8,731
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:00am Jul 12, 2009 11:00am
Quoting Ronin
Actually trading is my life too, I knew I wanted to be a trader since I was 10. Only that now I can see the scorpions that I have to face before it will happen , and meditation it helped me a lot.

And for know preparing myself because tommorow I'm back on the battlefield.
In fact Ronin, as you are young, why don't you try make way into trading rooms. The training, exposure, and experience will test you to the fullest before you fight in markets for yourself. Then save your money and trade from a beach house. or where ever you fancy, like me.

regards
  • #8,732
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:12am Jul 12, 2009 11:12am
Unfortunatelly here in Poland institutional trading is underdeveloped. Just few minor european proprietary trading firms, (no tier 1 banks).
And they hire mostly best business school students, also I've heard they don't give any good training. Maybe in the future when there will be better opportunities.
For now I'm training on my own.
the worst horse can be the best one
  • #8,733
  • Edited 12:18pm Jul 12, 2009 11:15am | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting Ronin
Unfortunatelly here in Poland institutional trading is underdeveloped. Just few minor european proprietary trading firms, (no tier 1 banks).
And they hire mostly best business school students, also I've heard they don't give any good training.
Then go follow the money,wherever it takes you. I even had to live in New Jersey across the river Hudson, in a old sugar factory housing,thousands of miles from home, for a time due to postings. Even shabby motels and subway cubicles.. If you want it bad enough you will find the motivation to do whatever it takes. Give yourself the best opportunities you can get. In fact, when I was younger,I had lived in so many countries, I feel at home almost anywhere. But of course , I also had stayed in most 6 star accomodations too. It doesn't really matter. To me its all the same. But the adventure, you make of it,and you will remember.
Its only when you have started family then you gotta settle down.

Your capital is youth, and of course if you mastered what I presented, I don't see how you cannot make it.

regards
  • #8,734
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:27am Jul 12, 2009 11:27am
Quoting fti
Then go follow the money,wherever it takes you. I even had to live in New Jersey across the river Hudson, in a old sugar factory housing,thousands of miles from home, for a time due to postings. If you want it bad enough you will find the motivation to do whatever it takes. Give yourself the best opportunities you can get.

regards
Thanks for encouraging, ability to break own limitatins we've got it from our ancestors who were fighting to surwive for the whole generations. So I wont quit, anyway what to do if not win or die trying?

see you Fti!
the worst horse can be the best one
  • #8,735
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:31am Jul 12, 2009 11:31am
Quoting Ronin
Thanks for encouraging, ability to break own limitatins we've got it from our ancestors who fought to surwive for the whole generations. So I wont quit, anyway what to do if not win or die trying?

see you Fti!
CU
regards
  • #8,736
  • Edited 2:03pm Jul 12, 2009 1:38pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting fti
Then go follow the money,wherever it takes you. I even had to live in New Jersey across the river Hudson, in a old sugar factory housing,thousands of miles from home, for a time due to postings. Even shabby motels and subway cubicles.. If you want it bad enough you will find the motivation to do whatever it takes. Give yourself the best opportunities you can get. In fact, when I was younger,I had lived in so many countries, I feel at home almost anywhere. But of course , I also had stayed in most 6 star accomodations too. It doesn't really matter....
you certainly have been around and all on your own .... in my view this was realy important training (i believe what they said:"you have blls of steel"). i am realy living in a small safe world. it makes sure i can relax easely but also i have no warrior mindset.....

when i was reading TAOW. i doubted if i have the right caracter but i keep reflecting on my self and trading. i have to find MM. wich suits my mindset.

what you said made me think about a great movie: "the pursuit of happines" with will smith.... a true story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pursuit_of_Happyness
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Gardner

thanks for some of your history and have a good week everybody
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #8,737
  • Jul 12, 2009 5:27pm Jul 12, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Ronin
So I wont quit, anyway what to do if not win or die trying?
I asked myself the same question at times when I was at cross road. I always got the same answer-- "Die, then. I've lived in the way I prefer, nothing to regret. On the other hand, I'd be happy that I had the chance to try out. "
  • #8,738
  • Edited 7:52pm Jul 12, 2009 6:32pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting imjscn
I asked myself the same question at times when I was at cross road. I always got the same answer-- "Die, then. I've lived in the way I prefer, nothing to regret. On the other hand, I'd be happy that I had the chance to try out. "
Hi,
To be highly motivated ,is a prerequisite to achieving any form of success in life's endevours, BUT of course the circumstances of the situation is paramount in the decision process. Learning the difference between prudence and over confidence is not an easy subject. Mostly it is about BALANCE.(yin yang ie mean) ie humility vs plain stubbornness.........

Since we are on the subject of Trading, I shall confine the outlook to just that.

It is very important as a trader to have some form of "sense"(bias) in most decisions made. Sometimes , our bias can be wrong. ( REMEMBER, you must never be trading bias alone, although you may have a bias, dancing her, may just save your butt , if you were on the wrong train.)....thinking required.
But you must remember that trading success, cannot be achieved by a singular event. May it be windfall profits or wipe out loss situation, although due to market variance , it can happen.
Success or failure must be determined by multiple events, therefore money management is important that no singular event should be allowed to wipe your capital out.
Similarly no singular event should give you sudden extreme windfall profits, and if it does, it is most likely that your risk/reward ratios are out of order. Or you got your volitility and sigma figures wrong. Worst case scenarios, is when all the -ve factors are at play in illiquidity.
Having understood the above, we can savely say that to be either very profitable or destroyed is going to be take multiple hits. Either you are CONSISTENTLY profitable or consistently loser. If you have performance consistency to above 80% you should be ok and doing it right.( for myself , it benchmark to 98%)

If you are win some lose some, then there may be some problems that you may have to address. And if you are consistently wrong than you had better stop trading before you run out of capital.

So there should never be do or die situations, if such had happened, then you are overly and excessively geared and overexposed. (This is self destruction)

or you may be scamed, which can happen if you chose the wrong counterparties to trade with. Based on what I had read , in so many threads, all over the forex forums, it can and had happened.

some deeper thinking required.
Also think about the impact of hostile trader robots that may be looking at blotters, maybe the geeks here can help out with some of the possibilities.

And I am not talking about robots with algos to make market( these may just be trying to stay alive in the market flow), but hostile robots that reads your blotter..........do you know what they can do? think spreads and untradeable flipping prices(requotes) . Ever wondered what that 5th pippet is for? Does the market move in pippets?

If robot algos can learn market behaviour, can hostile blotter submodules learn blotter persistency?



regards

Hint: SunZi Bing Fa, "if you know............................................."

some people, even tells market makers your tolerence, by stops.

I bet some market makers are reading, some brokers are asking for my bio details re comfirmation now. not the bank though.
  • #8,739
  • Jul 12, 2009 7:24pm Jul 12, 2009 7:24pm
EXCELLENT post fti.
  • #8,740
  • Jul 12, 2009 7:45pm Jul 12, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting M-H Trader
EXCELLENT post fti.
I like reading the posts here.
10 traders viewing now