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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #2,761
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:09am Jul 12, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Phi
overlapping is one thing and anticipating wave 5 to go that far is another.
Based on what I have seen, similar to Elliott 5-wave pattern, trending overlap waves often (not always) move in 5 waves as well. And EURUSD weekly price has been moving quite well on the Elliott Wave pattern since wave-(3). So I think the odds are in favor of another wave up (wave-(5) in this case).

That's my count only and I want to see how the others count on this chart as well
  • #2,762
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:34am Jul 12, 2009 11:34am
Quoting sarasxxx
it that case there is no exact ratio of wave-(5) you have to look on internal and external relationships of your wave-(5) subdivisions, i add my daily chart where i think wave-(5) might end
Thanks for the chart and comment Saras. Do you also have your count on the weekly?

From 1992~2002 USDCAD also had a large degree 5-wave movement. I think that chart pattern has some similarities to today's weekly EURUSD chart. Just a thought.
  • #2,763
  • Jul 12, 2009 2:13pm Jul 12, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting sarasxxx
it that case there is no exact ratio of wave-(5) you have to look on internal and external relationships of your wave-(5) subdivisions, i add my daily chart where i think wave-(5) might end
Sarasxxx quite good count. I had the same becouse of channeling. But currently 0-2 line is broken (check it), and second thing is size of 4 wave - its a lot bigger than 2nd wave. I think there is small possibility to make this 5th wave up, but imho its really small. Try to count it like the 5th wave is finished, and currently we are doing B wave in downtrend - complicated B. I think it's so complicated becouse its B (correction) in D (triangle) - correction.
  • #2,764
  • Jul 12, 2009 5:03pm Jul 12, 2009 5:03pm
This is the weekly count for the Euro USD so far , It is what it is , If you have a different count your count is wrong .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly EUR 44.png Size: 44 KB
  • #2,765
  • Jul 12, 2009 6:20pm Jul 12, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting tazzam72
This is the weekly count for the Euro USD so far , It is what it is , If you have a different count your count is wrong .

Excuse me! Would you care to elaborate on such a bold statement.
  • #2,766
  • Jul 12, 2009 6:25pm Jul 12, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting tazzam72
This is the weekly count for the Euro USD so far , It is what it is , If you have a different count your count is wrong .
Thanks for posting your software chart tazzam. But the last wave-1 and wave-2 on your chart looks proportionally too small to wave-3-4-5 to me. I could be wrong but I'll wait and see.
  • #2,767
  • Edited 7:51pm Jul 12, 2009 7:30pm | Edited 7:51pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
Thanks for posting your software chart tazzam. But the last wave-1 and wave-2 on your chart looks proportionally too small to wave-3-4-5 to me. I could be wrong but I'll wait and see.

yes i agree the wave count changed , old 2 to 5 now was actually wave 2 to 3 , when wave 4 did not hold to make a new higher wave 5 all wave count changed , I will post few weekly back test chart for you to look at .

Weekly Back test from 9/22/08 to 5/05/09

Also if you look at the PTI number on the first chart below the PTI was 28 , This is a very low PTI and shows weekness for the euro to make a new high at this time, PTI Have to be above 35 and can't break the red line (channel) , To qualify for type one trade elliot wave (4 to 5 wave) see for any pair to chart below.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly back test 12 08 47.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly back test 12 15 48.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #2,768
  • Jul 12, 2009 7:35pm Jul 12, 2009 7:35pm
Current
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly EUR 44.png Size: 44 KB
  • #2,769
  • Edited 8:44pm Jul 12, 2009 8:28pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting tazzam72
Current
Thanks for the charts tazzam. Suppose (just suppose) a few days later, price moves above the top of wave-5 on your chart, how would your software change the current wave-5 label?
  • #2,770
  • Jul 13, 2009 3:08am Jul 13, 2009 3:08am
Quoting ridingwaves2
Thanks for the chart and comment Saras. Do you also have your count on the weekly?

From 1992~2002 USDCAD also had a large degree 5-wave movement. I think that chart pattern has some similarities to today's weekly EURUSD chart. Just a thought.
No sorry don't do such long time frame analysis it's not very useful
  • #2,771
  • Jul 13, 2009 3:19am Jul 13, 2009 3:19am
Quoting activ
Sarasxxx quite good count. I had the same becouse of channeling. But currently 0-2 line is broken (check it), and second thing is size of 4 wave - its a lot bigger than 2nd wave. I think there is small possibility to make this 5th wave up, but imho its really small. Try to count it like the 5th wave is finished, and currently we are doing B wave in downtrend - complicated B. I think it's so complicated becouse its B (correction) in D (triangle) - correction.
the 0-2 trendline can be broken when wave-4 unfolds and then it becomes the 2-4 trendline which will not be broken untill wave-5 completes and so far it hasn't. The 4th wave is really big compared with wave-2, but according to alternation between 2 and 4 and since wave-3 is very extended i think it's acceptable, and i don't think it;s going to be a triangle since now I have counted a start of a new impulse and the retracement is too big for that to be a zigzag so I'm tipping that there will be a failled wave-5; if i'm wrong and it is really triangle doesn't matter because i still will be going in the same direction as the triangle legs only with different count
  • #2,772
  • Jul 13, 2009 7:50am Jul 13, 2009 7:50am
Quoting sarasxxx
No sorry don't do such long time frame analysis it's not very useful
I used to think so. But I think differently now because the longer time frame chart, especially the weekly chart, presents the general trend of the market (provided the chart reading is correct). It also indicates which direction the price tends to fluctuate in the near term, which is helpful for day trading as well. Just my 2 cents.
  • #2,773
  • Jul 13, 2009 8:05am Jul 13, 2009 8:05am
Quoting ridingwaves2
I used to think so. But I think differently now because the longer time frame chart, especially the weekly chart, presents the general trend of the market (provided the chart reading is correct). It also indicates which direction the price tends to fluctuate in the near term, which is helpful for day trading as well. Just my 2 cents.
tahts all good but i'm doing intra day trading so not much use for me
  • #2,774
  • Jul 13, 2009 2:28pm Jul 13, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting sarasxxx
tahts all good but i'm doing intra day trading so not much use for me
Gee, how could that be?

USDCAD_ ready for another leg down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-07-13 usdcad (15-min).gif Size: 45 KB
  • #2,775
  • Jul 13, 2009 2:45pm Jul 13, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
Gee, how could that be?

USDCAD_ ready for another leg down?

I am short from 4 days ago +ve pips now , I will post my daily and my 4H charts once I go back home, I use 150 pips trailling stops and Sl above the high , This is my second time in the last 7 days shorting this pair first one hit my SL .
  • #2,776
  • Jul 13, 2009 3:37pm Jul 13, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting tazzam72
I am short from 4 days ago +ve pips now , I will post my daily and my 4H charts once I go back home, I use 150 pips trailling stops and Sl above the high , This is my second time in the last 7 days shorting this pair first one hit my SL .
Good for you tazzam. Hope you make more from this one
  • #2,777
  • Jul 13, 2009 5:28pm Jul 13, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
Good for you tazzam. Hope you make more from this one
Daily Chart USD CAD , Just for the trend , I will exit on the 4 H chart See chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily USD CAD 52.png Size: 60 KB
  • #2,778
  • Jul 13, 2009 5:37pm Jul 13, 2009 5:37pm
Tp on the 4H at 1.618 Fib EXT(11374) and Max @2.618 Fib Ext (11190)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H USD CAD 53.png Size: 38 KB
  • #2,779
  • Jul 13, 2009 7:15pm Jul 13, 2009 7:15pm
The Loonie looks to be correcting into the 1.1350 area (38.2% of move from 1.0780) to complete Wave B of a potential double zigzag that should end in the 1.2100 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #2,780
  • Jul 13, 2009 8:46pm Jul 13, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting pipeye
The Loonie looks to be correcting into the 1.1350 area (38.2% of move from 1.0780) to complete Wave B of a potential double zigzag that should end in the 1.2100 area.
Hi Pipeye

So we agree on this one
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