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Silent Service Method

  • #3,001
  • Jul 10, 2009 4:57pm Jul 10, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting tac
Forex Factory have added a great feature where you can add to your favorites/bookmarks a link to the latest post of a thread (i.e. dynamic bookmark). Its at the top of the page (see below). Good for keeping abreast of long threads.
I always just save the last page I read to favourites and read through from there so I don't miss anything but then I only read one thread
  • #3,002
  • Jul 10, 2009 5:08pm Jul 10, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting Low
I must be doing something right....I did not take a single trade this whole week.



It happens.
  • #3,003
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:12pm Jul 10, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting hel13rock
Sorry to break it to you but you're going to actually have to open a trade to make any money
I'm just thinking about all the money I didn't lose this week.
  • #3,004
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:17pm Jul 10, 2009 7:17pm
Hey CW: What do you do if you are in a trade and price has been struggling with a minor or major level for a while? Do you cut and run or keep stop above most recent minor level and let it struggle = may the best price win (for lack of a better term)?

I am currently in a position in the AUD/USD. Price has really struggled for the last few days around the .7750 area. I sold at .7840 and my stop right now is at .7889 (high of my first bar and hidden behind some support at .7850 level).
I'm up .25% or 51 pips right now.

Thoughts? Thanks.
  • #3,005
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:20pm Jul 10, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting drebin
Hey CW: What do you do if you are in a trade and price has been struggling with a minor or major level for a while? Do you cut and run or keep stop above most recent minor level and let it struggle = may the best price win (for lack of a better term)?

I am currently in a position in the AUD/USD. Price has really struggled for the last few days around the .7750 area. I sold at .7840 and my stop right now is at .7889 (high of my first bar and hidden behind some support at .7850 level).
I'm up .25% or 51 pips right now.

Thoughts? Thanks.
Comfort is important. If and when I begin to doubt a trade - I sometimes will move to break even, and "write it off" mentally. You could do that if you would like.

I normally don't worry too much about time, as it doesn't really matter....but I have been there before. I would not blame you if you had to do something like that....just don't make a habit of it. It should be done sparingly because you don't want to cut too many trades short - it will cost you a fortune in the end.

CW
  • #3,006
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:44pm Jul 10, 2009 7:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
Comfort is important. If and when I begin to doubt a trade - I sometimes will move to break even, and "write it off" mentally. You could do that if you would like.

I normally don't worry too much about time, as it doesn't really matter....but I have been there before. I would not blame you if you had to do something like that....just don't make a habit of it. It should be done sparingly because you don't want to cut too many trades short - it will cost you a fortune in the end.

CW
Thanks as always, CW. I'll definitely take into consideration. It gets hard when you are once looking at over 1% in a postion and then price forms a double top or bottom against you and the next day your at BE ballpark. I guess it is something I'll have to learn.

Quick question: do you trade on Sunday evenings? I think you mentioned before that you don't really trust Friday bars (people exiting and Friday is normally a slow day) so does that effect your schedule on Sunday, etc.

Thanks.
  • #3,007
  • Jul 10, 2009 7:54pm Jul 10, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting hel13rock
Has anybody had any experience with a company called bet on markets at http://www.betonmarkets.com ?

You can place bets with a number of different parameters.

I have an account I set up with them ages ago and forgot about. It's got some money in there that they gave me as a sign up bonus (don't know if they still do it?)

Just having a look around, I placed a bet that eurgbp would be below 0.86 in 7 days time. It cost me £5.89 to win £10 if I'm right. I believe I can cash in the bet during that time if goes in my direction.

Am...
No direct experience but know of it by reputation and friends using it. It's basically a spread betting setup. These guys allow you to bet on anything and this company speicalise in the markets. Big advantage is, it's tax free. Big disadvantage is, the ethics and reliability of these guys is not good. I have no recent information, but from what I heard, I really wouldn't to trust these guys with any significant amount of money.
  • #3,008
  • Jul 10, 2009 8:03pm Jul 10, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting drebin
Thanks as always, CW. I'll definitely take into consideration. It gets hard when you are once looking at over 1% in a postion and then price forms a double top or bottom against you and the next day your at BE ballpark. I guess it is something I'll have to learn.

Quick question: do you trade on Sunday evenings? I think you mentioned before that you don't really trust Friday bars (people exiting and Friday is normally a slow day) so does that effect your schedule on Sunday, etc.

Thanks.
Well, there is gap trading....but again, that's a whole different type of trading.
  • #3,009
  • Jul 10, 2009 8:10pm Jul 10, 2009 8:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, there is gap trading....but again, that's a whole different type of trading.
So you don't take Forex positions on Sundays? Is your trading week from Mon-Thurs (for forex)? Just curious. Do you trust the action on Friday bars?

Thanks. Sorry for all the questions.
  • #3,010
  • Jul 10, 2009 8:27pm Jul 10, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting drebin
So you don't take Forex positions on Sundays? Is your trading week from Mon-Thurs (for forex)? Just curious. Do you trust the action on Friday bars?

Thanks. Sorry for all the questions.

I trust friday bars, but not for entries unless it's dead obvious. There are a lot of daytrader types getting in and out. As far as historical value, I don't worry about it as much...

If that makes sense.

And yes, rarely I will enter the forex market on Sundays.
  • #3,011
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:42am Jul 11, 2009 12:42am
Quoting hel13rock
Eurcad short not looking quite as good now. Audcad interesting too though. I'm not sure the PA is quite clear enough on either of these to be confident enough to take a trade. I might take one of them but not both.
EURCAD
The daily has an engulfing bar that engulfs 6 previous bars.

On my chart the closing bar is a bullish pin.
My weekly chart is up.
My position would be long.

ps: I have been trading for about 3 months and while my confidence level has improved quiet a bit this is just my observation. http://clicksmilies.com/s1106/fragen...smiley-013.gif

Also I have only 2 months of data on this and several other pairs.
For reasons unknown to me??
Attached Image
  • #3,012
  • Jul 11, 2009 1:47am Jul 11, 2009 1:47am
hel13rock

AUDCAD
The daily has closed above long term support.
I see 2 inside bars?.
The weekly is up.
I see no PA according to CW’s method.

I do not know how to interpret the 4 hour. There is a bear pin fallowed by an engulfing bar that engulfs the previous 2 bars within 2 pips.

Long? http://clicksmilies.com/s1106/fragen...smiley-013.gif
Again with this pair I have only a couple months data??
Attached Images
  • #3,013
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:15am Jul 11, 2009 2:15am
Low
Thank you for bring candles back into focus for me.
You were right..
They are easier to read.
Thanks again http://clicksmilies.com/s1106/sprach...smiley-026.gif
  • #3,014
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:18am Jul 11, 2009 2:18am
hel13rock

I’ve been meaning to ask you.
Do you use the background grid in your charts as a tool?
  • #3,015
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:51am Jul 11, 2009 2:51am
Quoting hel13rock
Has anybody had any experience with a company called bet on markets at http://www.betonmarkets.com ?

You can place bets with a number of different parameters.

I have an account I set up with them ages ago and forgot about. It's got some money in there that they gave me as a sign up bonus (don't know if they still do it?)

Just having a look around, I placed a bet that eurgbp would be below 0.86 in 7 days time. It cost me £5.89 to win £10 if I'm right. I believe I can cash in the bet during that time if goes in my direction....
Hey,

I never used the company, but I know it has been around for ages and should be pretty reliable.

I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think cashing in the bet before expiration date will be allowed, at least not at the full profit.

One of the key features of options is that they have unlimited profit potential, while this bet doesn't if I understand you correctly. In other senses I guess it is somewhat similar to options indeed. Therefore, it may be possible to use their bets as a means of hedging (but like you said... pretty simplified). You could draw a payout diagram to see if there's anything you like.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #3,016
  • Jul 11, 2009 2:56am Jul 11, 2009 2:56am
Quoting hel13rock
My gbpchf long got triggered today too and still looks like a good trade. Glad I got a better price though.

Anyone else got any interesting trades on?
Hi, hel13rock, am long this pair too...So lets wait and see what happens next week.
  • #3,017
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:11am Jul 11, 2009 3:11am
Quoting hel13rock
My gbpchf long got triggered today too and still looks like a good trade. Glad I got a better price though.

Anyone else got any interesting trades on?
I went long on EURGBP at .8583 and short on USDCHF at 1.0900 on my demo account. I just had to take some trades as I finished my last exam yesterday. They might not be ideal setups but I just had to take the pressure off
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #3,018
  • Jul 11, 2009 6:47am Jul 11, 2009 6:47am
Two new posts on the blog. One video, and one audio.
  • #3,019
  • Jul 11, 2009 7:36am Jul 11, 2009 7:36am
Quoting hel13rock
Has anybody had any experience with a company called bet on markets at http://www.betonmarkets.com ?

You can place bets with a number of different parameters.

I have an account I set up with them ages ago and forgot about. It's got some money in there that they gave me as a sign up bonus (don't know if they still do it?)

Just having a look around, I placed a bet that eurgbp would be below 0.86 in 7 days time. It cost me £5.89 to win £10 if I'm right. I believe I can cash in the bet during that time if goes in my direction....
I've played around with binary bets on IGIndex and BetOnMarkets. I think BOM is limited to expiries of 3 days whereas with IG you can take daily or even hourly bets.

Most of the time, the binaries are priced against you and its more like going to a casino to gamble your money away. Every so often though, you can find a binary with a huge payout and high probability. This usually happens when the bet is close to expiry, at a solid support/resistance level and priced very cheaply. In those cases, risk/reward can be as high as 1:9.

The actual quote you mentioned doesnt sound like a good deal to me, only 1:2 risk/reward and the "time to expiry" risk is 7 days. In my opinion, BOM dont offer good odds and IG are definitely better.

Binaries are very similar to options. I recommend a book called "Binary Trading" by John Piper if you want to find out more.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,020
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:18am Jul 11, 2009 8:18am
Quoting SimonK
I've played around with binary bets on IGIndex and BetOnMarkets. I think BOM is limited to expiries of 3 days whereas with IG you can take daily or even hourly bets.

Most of the time, the binaries are priced against you and its more like going to a casino to gamble your money away. Every so often though, you can find a binary with a huge payout and high probability. This usually happens when the bet is close to expiry, at a solid support/resistance level and priced very cheaply. In those cases, risk/reward can be as high as 1:9.

The actual quote...
Thank you very much and thank you to everyone else who has posted regarding Betonmarkets.

I believe they do have a 3 day expiry minimum but for my purposes that would be fine.

I just picked it up last night and considered that a bet on eurgbp being below 0.86 this time next week was a reasonable proposition.

Plenty to think about from you all anyway, thanks.
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