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The Way To Trade Forex, by Jay Lakhani 0 replies

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  • #61
  • Jul 10, 2009 9:57pm Jul 10, 2009 9:57pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I wonder if that pinhead, Hal Turner got one of those.

I believe Medvedev doesn't realize that he just triggered a whole bunch of conspiracy theorists to go wild. "Medvedev had one in his pockets", etc, etc...
I wonder what they'll call it? The Rooski?
  • #62
  • Jul 10, 2009 10:08pm Jul 10, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting opie999
I wonder what they'll call it? The Rooski?
It's already got a name. Gold. Silver to a lesser extend.

It's the only thing I know that's accepted in good or bad time by any country.

Another thing that this makes me think of. And please be patient so I can get my thoughts in order...

During WWII, the Germans printed bogus British Pounds in an effort to devalue the currency.

So the value of a nation's currency is something that can be attacked in the event of a war. As such, the value of a nation's currency is indirectly part of the military arsenal.

If I was a heavily militarized country, a common currency is the LAST thing I would want. Because if I ever entered a conflict with a country using the same currency as me, I have one less tool in my arsenal to beat my opponent.

The EU can't even get the UK to use the Euro. And some economists are talking about how the Euro isn't viable long term. So how would a global currency would work? Let's not forget that Castro, Chavez and Kim Jong-Il would all need to get in on it too otherwise it won't work! How would you get everyone to come on board?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #63
  • Jul 10, 2009 10:13pm Jul 10, 2009 10:13pm
Quoting Jay Walker
It's already got a name. Gold. Silver to a lesser extend.

The EU can't even get the UK to use the Euro. And some economists are talking about how the Euro isn't viable long term. So how would a global currency would work? Let's not forget that Castro, Chavez and Kim Jong-Il would all need to get in on it too otherwise it won't work! How would you get everyone to come on board?

LLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLL


Another nice compliment to the vouch system
Traders are smartasses
  • #64
  • Jul 10, 2009 11:44pm Jul 10, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting Jay Walker
It's already got a name....
If the world is headed for a single, gold-backed currency, we are looking at some truly dark days ahead of us. I can imagine an entire generation of deep economic depression and global strife before the dust settles and something approaching world-wide prosperity re-emerges.
  • #65
  • Jul 10, 2009 11:48pm Jul 10, 2009 11:48pm
Senate Mulls Medicare Tax on Capital Gains to Fund Health Plan

By Ryan J. Donmoyer
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Senate Finance Committee is discussing whether to apply Medicare taxes to capital gains and other non-wage income to help pay for an overhaul of the U.S. health-care system, two people familiar with the talks said.

The move would potentially raise hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue over the next decade by boosting taxes by 1.45 percentage points on income from dividends, interest, partnerships and rentals, the people said. Dividends and long- term capital gains are now taxed at 15 percent.
  • #66
  • Jul 10, 2009 11:54pm Jul 10, 2009 11:54pm
Quoting opie999
If the world is headed for a single, gold-backed currency, we are looking at some truly dark days ahead of us. I can imagine an entire generation of deep economic depression and global strife before the dust settles and something approaching world-wide prosperity re-emerges.
You can bet everything you own including your body parts that Goldman Sachs will lobby the U.S. government so this will never happen.

If you think little us nobody wannabe traders dislike the idea of a common currency, what do you think giants like Goldman Sachs feel? They want to continue trading currencies just like we do.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #67
  • Jul 10, 2009 11:58pm Jul 10, 2009 11:58pm
Hey opie and jay, since we're like the only 3 people signed in right now ((which probably says something in itself... ))

Are either of you guys familiar with the anticipated timetable for the "alt a" or "option arms" as I believe they're called to hit the market?

I heard a guy I sort of know ((a certified securities advisor guy with his own business)) referring to them as the "next shoe to drop" and commenting on how there is very little being mentioned in the daily drivel of cable financial shows, but it's common knowledge in the bizness...

He basically said the sub prime mess was shoe #1 and we're about 70% thru that cycle, but not even to the threshold yet of the other two, but that they're almost upon us. I'd have to go back and check my notes for the timetable if this is of any interest ... he was a guest at a "seminar" type thing I was at, and pretty intense.

Like I said, I sort of know the guy, he wasn't selling anything, but is a very close friend of someone I do know very well.
FUBAR...
  • #68
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:03am Jul 11, 2009 12:03am
Quoting ak4x
Hey opie and jay, since we're like the only 3 people signed in right now ((which probably says something in itself... ...
I can't say I am Ak. It's the first I hear of this.

But it's definitely something worth looking into. I'm thinking if a few of us can get together and call Peter Schiff during his radio show, one could get through and ask him. If anyone is interested in that, PM me and we'll organize something.

In the meantime, I'll look that up tonight.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #69
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:17am Jul 11, 2009 12:17am
OK then...I'll dig back into my notes and see what I can come up with. He had some very solid sounding data on longer term cycles and things that give us another +10 years (maybe even 15...) of bearishness in housing, DJ, and so on... with very gradual recovery. No rosy outlooks by 4th quarter 09/early 2010 from him.

I do have to say... he made some serious sense if the data and the premise is sound.

The other thing is that he sees the US banking situation (bad as it is...) as far better than the UK and EU situation and so on...

One place I do sort of differ from his viewpoints is that I see china leading the way out of all this mess before the US gets it together but I have more of an "alliance" outlook rather than a "dominance" perspective. That said, how the US deals with that sooner rather than later and acts accordingly is the Key to many things over the next 10-20 years... imo, and no one has asked my opinion to this point.
FUBAR...
  • #70
  • Jul 11, 2009 1:06am Jul 11, 2009 1:06am
Ok, forget about the cheesy blog title and just check out the article. Lot's of nifty graphs and charts 'n' stuff. Seems the guy has done his homework and what he has to say corroborates what your buddy's buddy says, AK.

May 20th, 2009
The Truth about Option ARMs, Pick-a-Pay Mortgages, and Alt-A Loans



Let me be abundantly clear. We still have a Pay Option ARM and Alt-A mortgage problem. This will hit in full force in 2010 and we are already seeing many mortgage holders having trouble with actual recasts brought on by negative amortization. Yet there is a crew of people saying that Alt-A mortgage products will not bring any trouble because of the low interest rate environment. Unfortunately the low rate misses the bigger issue. Low rates are helping but the problem that we will be seeing is the massive onslaught of recasts, not resets that will be occurring over the next few years. This is a big reason why we won’t see a housing bottom in California until 2011 at the earliest. Many of these loans were made to supposedly better qualified borrowers in mid to upper priced areas. These areas will begin to crack like an egg dropped on the floor late in 2009. The Notice of Default tsunami will guarantee this much.
  • #71
  • Jul 11, 2009 1:24am Jul 11, 2009 1:24am
Enough to get started with... That was essentially the same song there opie... thanks for that.
FUBAR...
  • #72
  • Jul 11, 2009 10:12pm Jul 11, 2009 10:12pm
Hundreds of Thousands of Workers Will Lose Unemployment Benefits Soon

Washington Post Writers Group. Posted July 10, 2009.


Workers laid off early in the downturn are soon to be left without the basic sustenance of an unemployment check.

WASHINGTON -- When a virulent disease is ravaging you like a cancer, you don't want a cacophony of voices promoting different or contradictory cures. Yet that is what we're starting to hear about the economic crisis, not only from a politically divided -- and pretty scared -- capital, but from within the Obama administration itself. In just the past few days, Vice President Joe Biden has said the young administration misread the depth of the recession -- an honest account, since most private economists did as well. Laura Tyson, an outside economic adviser to the White House, said it's wise to start preparing another stimulus package.
  • #73
  • Jul 11, 2009 10:37pm Jul 11, 2009 10:37pm
Mortgage defaults spread as even 'safe' borrowers falter


By Jim Wasserman and Dale Kasler

Published: Saturday, Jul. 11, 2009 - 12:00 am


The mortgage default crisis has an ominous new face. It's your neighbor with a traditional fixed-rate loan.
No longer is the real estate bust simply the result of exotic, subprime loans that doubled payments and blew up in homeowners' faces. As the Sacramento economy buckles, even the safest mortgages have become part of a new wave of loan defaults, experts say.
  • #74
  • Jul 11, 2009 11:55pm Jul 11, 2009 11:55pm
Here's a link to an interesting story:

http://dailyreckoning.com/hyperinflation-or-deflation/
Attached Image
Year of the Dragon Wise Choices-Good Fortune!
  • #75
  • Jul 12, 2009 3:22am Jul 12, 2009 3:22am
Quoting chanchu
Here's a link to an interesting story:

http://dailyreckoning.com/hyperinflation-or-deflation/
"Coming back to the subject of this essay, the reason that I don’t foresee immediate hyperinflation is because the velocity of money is currently weak. In other words, at least for the moment, the private sector in America isn’t participating in Mr. Bernanke’s inflation agenda. Despite the fact that Mr. Bernanke has injected a massive amount of reserves in the banking sector, this money is currently sitting as excess reserves within

the American banking system. The fact that this money isn’t being lent out rules out immediate hyperinflation. However, once the American economy stabilizes and the velocity of money picks up, these excess reserves will trigger a massive inflationary wave."

Well that settles that. Great find Chanchu!

Not all sins are created equal
  • #76
  • Jul 12, 2009 6:51pm Jul 12, 2009 6:51pm
Freezing credit cards doesn't thaw debt problems


Commentary by Vance Christensen on the recent rate hike of credit card companies.

"We shouldn’t even be using credit cards in the first place so it is good interest rates are increasing to discourage living beyond our means. Now Congress and the President want to reverse this process?"

http://www.vancechristensen.com/node/32
Not all sins are created equal
  • #77
  • Jul 12, 2009 7:05pm Jul 12, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting ak4x
Enough to get started with... That was essentially the same song there opie... thanks for that.
Inserted Video


VERY informative video on Alt A mortgages (even if a year old now). This reminds of of Schiff talking about sub-prime hitting the fan from 2006 and being inaccurate in the "when" part, just not the "what".

Something is about to hit the fan.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #78
  • Jul 13, 2009 5:42am Jul 13, 2009 5:42am
Winton to Start Japan Fund, Hire H.K. Staff in Asian Expansion

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Winton Capital Management Ltd., the U.K. hedge fund with $12 billion in assets, will start a new fund in Japan and hire staff in Hong Kong as it expands when rivals such as Citadel Investment Group LLC retreat from Asia.
The new fund will be offered in Japanese yen, U.S. dollars and Australian dollars, and will be structured by the Japanese brokerage unit of Deutsche Bank AG. Winton raised about 130 billion yen ($1.4 billion) through the two earlier funds, according to Hideyuki Sago, general manager of Mitsubishi UFJ’s structured products division.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ayP2GTjNcZxE

Nice pic Jay!!
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.
  • #79
  • Jul 13, 2009 10:48pm Jul 13, 2009 10:48pm
The Doctrine of Preemptive Bailouts and the Biggest Bailout you haven’t Heard About: The U.S. Treasury Plan C and the $3.5 Trillion You will be Paying.


Last week a story which gained very little traction hit the financial newswires. The U.S. Treasury is working on an internal project informally called “Plan C” which seeks to deal with further problems in the economy before they occur.

The anonymous report came out stating the administration is reluctant to commit any additional money especially to the level mentioned in the report. However this is a disturbing new development in our bailout nation since this is one of the first times that the U.S. Treasury will try to preemptively deal with a financial problem.
  • #80
  • Jul 14, 2009 9:29am Jul 14, 2009 9:29am
Indonesia Said to Plan 100 Billion Yen Samurai Sale

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, plans to raise as much as 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) from its first sale of sovereign samurai bonds, according to two bankers with direct knowledge of the matter.

Japan’s Support
Japan will guarantee as much as $5 billion of samurai bonds sold by developing countries as part of efforts to combat the global financial crisis, Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said in Bali on May 3. The Philippines is studying a samurai sale after raising $750 million selling dollar bonds yesterday, Treasurer Roberto Tan said in a mobile phone message today.



article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNBRWPggN6hg
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.
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