4H Box Breakout | Page 42 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Box Breakout indicator 197 replies

Breakout EA based on New York Box 3 replies

4H Weekly Box Breakout [TD] 4 replies

EURUSD Box Breakout 6 replies

Breakout Box 5 replies

Attachments: 4H Box Breakout
Exit Attachments

4H Box Breakout

  • #821
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:44pm Jul 8, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting wrenski
Wow Yen....that's huge!
Thanks for the kind words, but it's really the system that deserves the kudos. All I did was pull the trigger and hold on for the ride. But what a ride it was . . . I've been trading 8 years and never came close to duplicating this week's results.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #822
  • Jul 9, 2009 1:57am Jul 9, 2009 1:57am
Quoting yen44x
Thanks for the kind words, but it's really the system that deserves the kudos. All I did was pull the trigger and hold on for the ride. But what a ride it was . . . I've been trading 8 years and never came close to duplicating this week's results.
i cannot agree more..it is a wonderful system in a wonderful week...i'm able to catch about 650 pips with TP 3x at GJ and EJ. Really2 good feeling...This is what patience pays..

I have also been studying and trading forex for 2 years, yet i havent found something simple but killer like this...four thumbs for Ace who brought this here...

Enjoy your weekend guys..for us, the weekend starts yesterday..lol...
  • #823
  • Jul 9, 2009 4:18am Jul 9, 2009 4:18am
arr it's really hard to tell, sometimes people taking TP at 2 would kick themselves while the other times people TP at 4 would kick themselves when prices move just over TP2 and reverses.

It all depends on your personality. TP4 system would have a high RR but max drawdown over a long period of time would also be higher with the same risk per trade. On the other hand, TP2 system would have a lower RR but the max drawdown experienced would also be lower (which is easier to your emotion), and with this, you can increase risk per trade to achieve the same return similar to TP4 system.

So, with a desinated RR value your set, the most important thing is you backtest enough and find out the most important parameter of your system, namely, win rate, and calculate your system's Expected Return (E) where

E = win rate (or win probability) * return - loss rate (or loss probability) * risk

As long as your E is positive, you will be good.

Quoting Ace284
I know some of you are kicking yourselves because you took out profits at 2x or so because of the long term support was around there. Keep in mind that when this system was tested, no support/resistance levels were taken into account. But it was very profitable. If you do see a very significant support/resistance (Daily) decrease your position but don't close the entire order. I say this because basic resistance can act in two ways, either it could break and head the other way, or bounce off and continue its path. We really can't tell which way...
  • #824
  • Edited 7:05am Jul 9, 2009 6:11am | Edited 7:05am
I am New To Tis System. Though Traded afew system but i Luv Tis Simple System eSpecially For People WorKing Day jobs.

But the Draw Back can be huge S/L Setting Sometimes? Correct ME if i am Wrong

Final Qs is my Chart Layout Correct Just To conFirm.

Can't Wait till Next Wk to srt to Trade.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 134 KB
trade safe
  • #825
  • Edited 11:19am Jul 9, 2009 11:09am | Edited 11:19am
I ran some backtests on GBPJPY to look at optimal scale out and stop sizes.

First, I optimised in sample from 10 July 2006 to 1 June 2008 and got the first equity curve (all tests entering 3 x minilots on a 1 pip break of the high / low - I found no advantage by increasing the buffer size).

Then I ran those settings on (almost all) out of sample data from 9 April 2008 to yesterday : equity curve #2.

Then I combined the periods for equity curve #3. The out of sample period is better than the in sample : what does that suggest ? It suggests that recent volatility has been fantastic for this method with this pair; it also suggests that different parameters would have yielded significantly higher results over the last year (and they do), although this would not be the case if volatility contracts.

The scale out levels were :

T1 170 pips
T2 350 pips
T3 540 pips
Initial stop loss 70 pips (surprisingly small)
After 40 pips, activate a 90 pip trailing stop

... and one other rule : trades only allowed to start on Mondays : shorts up until 13.00 CET, longs until 11.00 CET. So for a reversal trade to trigger, it must do so on Monday morning or very shortly thereafter. Why this rule : because I like it and use time of day in various ways in my trading ?

Food for thought as always...

Edit : for clarification, I'd like to add that you would probably do better than these tests by trading Ace or G550's rules. The purpose of the backtest was to show myself the robustnes of a very tradeable adjustment of the method, part of the results of which I am sharing.
Edit2 : Tradestation counts each scale-out as a separate trade, so divide the total number of trades by three to get the actual number of entries. There was a much higher entry rate in the second period, which you would expect with higher volatility.
Attached Images
  • #826
  • Jul 9, 2009 1:12pm Jul 9, 2009 1:12pm
Great results - can I ask what tp4 would have been.

So are these the figures you are going to run with now - using a 70 sl even though the size of the box may be bigger?
  • #827
  • Jul 9, 2009 4:19pm Jul 9, 2009 4:19pm
Jtrade. are you still here?? Could you pls look over the above question. thanks so much
  • #828
  • Jul 9, 2009 4:24pm Jul 9, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting gillybabe
Great results - can I ask what tp4 would have been.

So are these the figures you are going to run with now - using a 70 sl even though the size of the box may be bigger?
Hi, gillybabe,

I did not test for T4, but I will probably let the strategy run at these settings. I am currently in the middle of a project to bring as much automation as possible to my trading across various instruments and timeframes (in terms of signals - entries and exits - if not always execution). The longer the timeframe, the less difficult (H4 is my second longest, after Daily); now, automating a 233 tick chart on a very liquid instrument - that is a challenge...

... but anyway, one of the problems with trading forums is that we all get fixated on what everyone else is doing (or at least I notice myself being drawn into this). I suppose it makes us feel all secure. But as so few are generating consistent monthly returns, this really makes no sense at all...

.. it's late and I'm rambling... going to bed now.

Night, night
  • #829
  • Jul 10, 2009 10:49am Jul 10, 2009 10:49am
Hi, I just wanted to say that this system looks impressive. I did some backtesting with different parameters and I was most successful using tp3. Another thing that increased the pip count substantially was taking a third trade if the first two got stopped out. Using this method backtesting for 2009 till now I was up around 7400 pips. I only had 3 losers out of a possible 27 trades.
  • #830
  • Jul 10, 2009 12:05pm Jul 10, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting 11andy11
Hi, I just wanted to say that this system looks impressive. I did some backtesting with different parameters and I was most successful using tp3. Another thing that increased the pip count substantially was taking a third trade if the first two got stopped out. Using this method backtesting for 2009 till now I was up around 7400 pips. I only had 3 losers out of a possible 27 trades.
can u explain little bit more details. Maybe use example wil understand it...
  • #831
  • Jul 10, 2009 12:11pm Jul 10, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting fewhills
Pair: GBPJPY
Broker for determining price etc: demo account IBFX
Time Frame to determine price: H1. Bars: 4 x H1
Time range between 23:00 GMT Sunday Bar Open and 02:00 GMT Monday Bar Close.
Highest Price: 156.430
Lowest Price: 154.868
Buffer: 21 pips
Break Out High: 156.43 + 21 + 9 spread = 156.73
Break Out Low: 154.87 - 21 = 154.66
Diff without spread: 198 pips
Closed on Friday 10th at about 19:00 GMT.
Profit this week: 501 pips.
Total result last 3 weeks: +75 -129 + 501 = 447 pips
Weekly average 447/3 = 149 pips
Average trade: 447/4 = 112 pips (2 winners + 1 trade stopped out + 1 reenter with loss at the end of the 2nd week)
  • #832
  • Jul 10, 2009 12:26pm Jul 10, 2009 12:26pm
basically what I am saying is that if you get stopped out on the long position and the short position and price goes long again you would be getting back in with a second long position with target being tp3. If the target is reached you basically are 3 for 5 for the week. Let me clarify the wins as well. I only had three losing weeks out of a possible 27 weeks. Some of those weeks I consider winners but you would have lost the first two (the long and short positions) and won the third trade. So profits for those weeks when the third trade reached tp3 would obviously be 1/3 of what you normally would expect with no losers. I am backtesting 2007 and 2008 currently with these parameters. The problem with taking the third trade is that if you get stopped out on it you would have three losers for the week. That only happened three times on my testing out of 27 weeks.
  • #833
  • Jul 10, 2009 12:30pm Jul 10, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting 11andy11
basically what I am saying is that if you get stopped out on the long position and the short position and price goes long again you would be getting back in with a second long position with target being tp3. If the target is reached you basically are 3 for 5 for the week. Let me clarify the wins as well. I only had three losing weeks out of a possible 27 weeks. Some of those weeks I consider winners but you would have lost the first two (the long and short positions) and won the third trade. So profits for those weeks when the third trade reached...
Example:
GJ: Long 150.00 TP 147.00 (TP3 if range HILO 100 pips) SL 100
Short 149.00 TP 146.00 SL 150.00

2 both orders hit SL so total loss is 200. Then PO both order again and Long hit TP3..so win 300 - 200 = +ve 100 pips

Rite ?
  • #834
  • Jul 10, 2009 12:36pm Jul 10, 2009 12:36pm
correct. I am pretty sure that I have not come across an example of a 4th trade getting triggered. One thing you have to remember is that the week is only so long and that if the trade is triggered thurday night there is not enough time for the trade to reach tp3 more than likely, so you are gonna have to use some discretion on the third trade. For the most part though they get triggered during the middle of the week and hit there target. Sometime the third trade get closed at the end of the week in profits but not at tp3. It substantially increased the total pips from around 4400 to over 7000 pips.
  • #835
  • Edited 1:34pm Jul 10, 2009 1:23pm | Edited 1:34pm
Hello guys,
I`m newone, pls could someone explain abt time. I`m in Latvia (GMT+2), For examle my time is 21:15 at the moment, broker time 20:15.
At what time 1st 4H candle of week (Asian session) is for me? At 2:00, am I right? If so, but it is a very good time for sleeping
Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: time.JPG Size: 45 KB
  • #836
  • Jul 10, 2009 1:35pm Jul 10, 2009 1:35pm
Thanks to Ace for this system

Although I'm demo testing I just closed 1000+ pips for profit.
  • #837
  • Jul 10, 2009 2:31pm Jul 10, 2009 2:31pm
jtrade,

so according to your test of the last year it would be best to enter next week 1 pip above or below the first 4H candle with a stop loss of 70 pips and if up by 40 pips to follow with a 90 pip trailing stop............

so no TP, just let it run with the TSL.

correct?

thank you for sharing the test results.
  • #838
  • Jul 10, 2009 3:19pm Jul 10, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting yonnie
jtrade,

so according to your test of the last year it would be best to enter next week 1 pip above or below the first 4H candle with a stop loss of 70 pips and if up by 40 pips to follow with a 90 pip trailing stop............

so no TP, just let it run with the TSL.

correct?

thank you for sharing the test results.
Unfortunately, not quite : my backtests only tell me what was a very tradeable parameter set. What would be best in the future cannot be known. Consider also that the time filters I imposed severely restricted and reduced entries and especially reversal entries - look at 11andy11's posts above. No third trade with my parameters, sometimes for the worse.

I agree with an earlier poster that the biggest profits will come from holding out for the few really huge trades, but psychologically this is VERY hard - impossible, actually, for most traders. I was seeking a tradeable alternative with low drawdown and a smooth equity curve. If you could accept a bumpier ride you could increase profitability by 50% or so just by not scaling out.

But it's much more important to start trading the system live, however small your lot size, according to one of the rule sets offered, than wondering endlessly about what to do and what other people are doing. Live trading a profitable method will give invaluable experience through which one discovers what is possible for oneself (btw, ths is not particularly aimed at you, yonnie, I just start pontificating this late in the evening !).

Have a great weekend everybody.

  • #839
  • Jul 10, 2009 3:31pm Jul 10, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting lolpie
Thanks to Ace for this system

Although I'm demo testing I just closed 1000+ pips for profit.
  • #840
  • Jul 10, 2009 4:52pm Jul 10, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting jtrade
Unfortunately, not quite : my backtests only tell me what was a very tradeable parameter set. What would be best in the future cannot be known. Consider also that the time filters I imposed severely restricted and reduced entries and especially reversal entries - look at 11andy11's posts above. No third trade with my parameters, sometimes for the worse.

I agree with an earlier poster that the biggest profits will come from holding out for the few really huge trades, but psychologically this is VERY hard - impossible,...
Holding onto long tail trades is extremely difficult and I only know of a small handful who do it regularly and their account growths are much smoother than most. The biggest problem with it being of course having some good trades not make as much as possible and some stopping out all together.

This week I held most of my trades till Wednesday afternoon. I was up close to 1600 pips at peak on 3 pairs, but netted close to 900. Had I held a little longer I could have closed today for a few more and possibly held till next week, but this is against the major trends of Monthly and Weekly. As much as I think the bears will have control for a couple of weeks pushing things down, I certainly wouldnt hold my bets on it. If we were trading with that trend then I would be more than happy to hold them, but IMO we are having a needed pullback before resuming in the general weekly and monthly direction. In saying that also I have read (I dont pay much attention to them though) a few articles that state we havent bottomed yet, so the last move up could have been the pull back for the crash drop!. I dont know about that, but in anycase trading a breakout and getting some good pips is good enough. In time I will hold some winners for longer.

Have a good weekend all

Razor
3 traders viewing now