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Silent Service Method

  • #2,861
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:21am Jul 8, 2009 11:21am
Quoting pi piper
I bought GBP CHF at 17500. Anyone else like the look of the support here?
i'd kill for that setup but i don't see any price action to confirm that "buy"..maybe its just me...
  • #2,862
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:24am Jul 8, 2009 11:24am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Ones Market stop correcting this piglet will fly down like a
tomahawk from helicopter
Actually there is no system. Simply draw 1 H chart and on the NEXT
Dollar pop like today, fine those support lines and set your BUYs.

I'll snow you on the images:
Ok, come on, just how much acid did you actually take this morning?
  • #2,863
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:27am Jul 8, 2009 11:27am
hey Cw..i remember you were talking about your box trading...i'd love to hear more about it..
thx
  • #2,864
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:32am Jul 8, 2009 11:32am
Quoting hel13rock
There are a few big moves just about to occur. I'd be tempted to wait for the PA to actually happen rather than just buy blindly in case it does hold.

Don't get me wrong, your trade could well be a winner but it could tank too, there's nothin' at the moment to tell you either way? I hope your stop loss is either very big or very small! (not sure which would be better)
I had this level in mind from previous action. Its a good round number and has been support and resistance before although its only really visible on the Daily. The last time was the 23rd June and on the 24th it just took off. If you were going to wait for PA at this level looking back at 23rd + 24th how would you have played it?
  • #2,865
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:33am Jul 8, 2009 11:33am
Quoting hel13rock
Ok, come on, just how much acid did you actually take this morning?

apparently enough to get him to that state
  • #2,866
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:35am Jul 8, 2009 11:35am
Quoting pi piper
I bought GBP CHF at 17500. Anyone else like the look of the support here?
1.75 is without doubt an excellent level to watch for PA; it is a very important hystorical level, and i was tempted to buy like you. But i didn't. I hope to see PA to tell me to go long in the lower TF...
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  • #2,867
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:44am Jul 8, 2009 11:44am
Quoting pi piper
I had this level in mind from previous action. Its a good round number and has been support and resistance before although its only really visible on the Daily. The last time was the 23rd June and on the 24th it just took off. If you were going to wait for PA at this level looking back at 23rd + 24th how would you have played it?
Well I've got it on my weekly chart quite firmly. Why did it take off on the 24th? Because the Swiss central bank stepped in to weaken their currency as CW explained.

I am going to wait for PA at this level but I use candlesticks so I'm waiting for a doji reversal or similar.

The point with this particular setup is that eurchf reaching 1.50 was the reason the chf took off and eur chf hasn't weakened back to that level quite yet so just why would gbp chf do anything else but drop despite s/r?

The point in general is that certain bar/candle formations will TELL you that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of a move. Taking trades on the basis of a s/r level being met without any confirming PA is just a gamble.

Like I said, you may win this time but you'll increase your win % if you wait for appropriate PA. Just trying to help.
  • #2,868
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:46am Jul 8, 2009 11:46am
Quoting bakko85
1.75 is without doubt an excellent level to watch for PA; it is a very important hystorical level, and i was tempted to buy like you. But i didn't. I hope to see PA to tell me to go long in the lower TF...
Seconded...
  • #2,869
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:47am Jul 8, 2009 11:47am
Quoting hel13rock
Ok, well I missed the point totally but at least I learnt something from it

S+p500 has broken below and both usd/jpy and eur/jpy are both dropping like stones but is that not more related to oil dropping in a similar fashion?

Or have i stumbled upon a correlation between oil and the s+p500? The mind boggles

The trouble is this is all knowledge after the event, presumably I will have to wait for these pairs to retrace to a s/r line to be able to trade them in the direction of a possible new trend?
EUR/JPY is a very highly related pair to stocks in general. For a good oil play, check CAD/JPY if you have that pair to trade. Japan imports all of it's oil, so this pair moves nicely with oil. So does the NOK. (Norway, think North Sea oil rigs.)

I think the Oil and S&P does relate to a point, but this is more of a "Oh shit! Things aren't as great as we thought" moment? Perhaps.....

CW
  • #2,870
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:48am Jul 8, 2009 11:48am
Quoting bakko85
1.75 is without doubt an excellent level to watch for PA; it is a very important hystorical level, and i was tempted to buy like you. But i didn't. I hope to see PA to tell me to go long in the lower TF...

That is my plan as well.
  • #2,871
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:50am Jul 8, 2009 11:50am
Quoting nomask
hey Cw..i remember you were talking about your box trading...i'd love to hear more about it..
thx

The latest video was kinda like a set up for that.
  • #2,872
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:50am Jul 8, 2009 11:50am
Quoting nomask
here is where you can find it
and how i like to use it...
p.s:glad your trade doing well now...
Thanks Nomask! Wow, trade took a real turn so far, but a long ways to go, we'll see from here........

I'll start practicing and using the extension. I'll let you know of any other questions. Your answers and help is much appreciated.

Hey CW: I've had issues determining targets, as far as where I expect a trade to go (now I am confident in my ability to manage trades, hiding stops behind minor levels), but if I open a trade is there a recommendation on how to figure out a "final" target? I'm guessing it would be based on chart patterns, fibs, etc....

Nomask: If you use fibs for this, (total newbie question here), and price hits 50% for example, what would be the typical target for that price (or level)?

Thanks!
  • #2,873
  • Jul 8, 2009 11:59am Jul 8, 2009 11:59am
Quoting clockwork71
EUR/JPY is a very highly related pair to stocks in general. For a good oil play, check CAD/JPY if you have that pair to trade. Japan imports all of it's oil, so this pair moves nicely with oil. So does the NOK. (Norway, think North Sea oil rigs.)

I think the Oil and S&P does relate to a point, but this is more of a "Oh shit! Things aren't as great as we thought" moment? Perhaps.....

CW
I've got the cad/jpy/oil thing but it's still always after the event in that oil tends to move erratically and cad/jpy is always there straight after so unless your trading the news you still can't profit from it unless it's a valid long term move.

My head and heart are both telling me to wait until these things retrace near a s/r level or at least a downwards trendline and then wait for PA. You see? Your message is getting through!
  • #2,874
  • Jul 8, 2009 12:05pm Jul 8, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting drebin
Thanks Nomask! Wow, trade took a real turn so far, but a long ways to go, we'll see from here........

I'll start practicing and using the extension. I'll let you know of any other questions. Your answers and help is much appreciated.

Hey CW: I've had issues determining targets, as far as where I expect a trade to go (now I am confident in my ability to manage trades, hiding stops behind minor levels), but if I open a trade is there a recommendation on how to figure out a "final" target? I'm guessing it would be based on chart patterns, fibs,...
There are 2 good ways that i know of to determine a target price. Trail your stops is good advice but first method is to draw channel lines. If there is a level that has rejected price in a channel on a few occasions then put your tp just above that level.

The next is fibonacci. I have my fibs set up with extension levels for 1.68, 1.5 and 1.32, similar to nomask. I am using fibs less and less these days but they can be useful to give you an idea of what levels other traders are targetting.
  • #2,875
  • Jul 8, 2009 12:21pm Jul 8, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting bakko85
1.75 is without doubt an excellent level to watch for PA; it is a very important hystorical level, and i was tempted to buy like you. But i didn't. I hope to see PA to tell me to go long in the lower TF...

I thirded it
-happyTrading-myFx.
  • #2,876
  • Jul 8, 2009 12:34pm Jul 8, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting myfx
I thirded it
Hey buddy, watch out, you're learning TOO fast! You should surely go through the same torment as the rest of us did before we found this thread! Glad to see you're "getting it" sooner than I did.
  • #2,877
  • Jul 8, 2009 12:52pm Jul 8, 2009 12:52pm
TF1h, INSIDE BAR setup forming (not the best setup, i agree )..Maybe go long at the break of IB..??? Divergence on MACD.
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  • #2,878
  • Jul 8, 2009 1:00pm Jul 8, 2009 1:00pm
Take a little rice,take a little beans
gonna rock and roll down to
New Orleans xxx
  • #2,879
  • Jul 8, 2009 1:02pm Jul 8, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting bakko85
TF1h, INSIDE BAR setup forming (not the best setup, i agree )..Maybe go long at the break of IB..??? Divergence on MACD.
For me the trend on the hourly is down, and price hasn't really decided yet, risky long imho.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #2,880
  • Jul 8, 2009 1:07pm Jul 8, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting tac
For me the trend on the hourly is down, and price hasn't really decided yet, risky long imho.
Blimey, I thought I'd had a few beers but you boys are OUTSIDE! Why are you even evaluating the hourly? I don't give a fig what happens intraday, if it ain't sticking out on a daily chart I'm not going to trade it and that is that. Good luck both of you
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