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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #8,541
  • Jul 7, 2009 5:12am Jul 7, 2009 5:12am
Quoting fti
heros, early death seems their destiny.
be wise, take the easy road.
Hey, great AOW strategy--- the top/bottom pickers are the heroes, we be patient, let them take the bullets, then, we jump in the trend
  • #8,542
  • Edited 5:43am Jul 7, 2009 5:17am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting imjscn
Hey, great AOW strategy--- the top/bottom pickers are the heroes, we be patient, let them take the bullets, then, we jump in the trend
Generals, they are never in the front waves, look what happened to the ZiLong commanders. When my general arrives, it is there to kick butts.
becareful of signals coming back from the fronts,esp outdated info, get emotional about them, and you walk right into killing fields.

If you have the time, check this out, becareful that it doesn't take all of your lifetime.

Starts here. So much lessons..................
Inserted Video


best get the VCDs this may not last long as someone here had been killing much of my links.
  • #8,543
  • Jul 7, 2009 5:50am Jul 7, 2009 5:50am
Sir, Let me confess the truth .... our gov blocked youtube for a while (perhaps more than 6 months), I haven't ever got a chance to watch any youtube you and others posted here. I'm waiting patiently for the day they unblock the thing.
  • #8,544
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:03am Jul 7, 2009 6:03am
Quoting imjscn
Sir, Let me confess the truth .... our gov blocked youtube for a while (perhaps more than 6 months), I haven't ever got a chance to watch any youtube you and others posted here. I'm waiting patiently for the day they unblock the thing.
hey imjscn,
is everything allright there ?
saw news 150 dead n 1500 prisoned in xianghao...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,545
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:08am Jul 7, 2009 6:08am
Quoting maheswara
u r not increasing ur exposure above normal ,
if the volatility dropped 30% then increase base size by 30% ,
aint ur exposure still be on the normal side?
Only if you can see into the future, I guess. Maybe my understanding of this MO is all wrong but I wouldn't be increasing base size (not of the scout for sure) to compensate for lack of volatility. Are we talking about different things here perhaps? It certainly doesn't fit into the "making sure of victory before attacking" mindset anyway. Sounds like you are increasing your size because you are not sure of victory.
  • #8,546
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:11am Jul 7, 2009 6:11am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Only if you can see into the future, I guess. Maybe my understanding of this MO is all wrong but I wouldn't be increasing base size (not of the scout for sure) to compensate for lack of liquidity. Are we talking about different things here perhaps?
yea maybe ,
im talking about volatility...
high vol decrease size ,
low vol increase size ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,547
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:12am Jul 7, 2009 6:12am
So was I - edited my post, sorry. I understand what you are saying but I think it is dangerous, for me at least, to increase my size because I am unhappy with the rate of movement in the PA. Rather, it would indicate to me that it wasn't going anywhere fast right now, and I should wait for a better opportunity to press my attack.
  • #8,548
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:13am Jul 7, 2009 6:13am
Quoting imjscn
Sir, Let me confess the truth .... our gov blocked youtube for a while (perhaps more than 6 months), I haven't ever got a chance to watch any youtube you and others posted here. I'm waiting patiently for the day they unblock the thing.
Oh , its the tv series 三国演义 by Laser Video Publishing Co. Shenzhen
  • #8,549
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:17am Jul 7, 2009 6:17am
Thanks, I will get the vedio. It's easy to buy DVD on the streets here.
  • #8,550
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:17am Jul 7, 2009 6:17am
Quoting maheswara
yea maybe ,
im talking about volatility...
high vol decrease size ,
low vol increase size ...
low vol increase size, then high vol appears and you are sitting duck. "impatience & greed knows no bounds".
Only way clear then is expanding spiral within spiral. The safe path is spiral within apiral contraction.
  • #8,551
  • Edited 6:30am Jul 7, 2009 6:19am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting imjscn
Thanks, I will get the vedio. It's easy to buy DVD on the streets here.
not sure if there is DVD , mine is VCD boxsets series.

Did a search, yes they have dvd set.
http://stores.moviesville.com/Items/...~Collector%27s

You don't need it, probably expert in 3 kingdoms classics already, don't they teach it in china?
  • #8,552
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:24am Jul 7, 2009 6:24am
Is the 84 episode Romance of the Three Kingdoms that was on China TV a few years ago any good?
  • #8,553
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:26am Jul 7, 2009 6:26am
Quoting ukmanthailan
So was I - edited my post, sorry. I understand what you are saying but I think it is dangerous, for me at least, to increase my size because I am unhappy with the rate of movement in the PA. Rather, it would indicate to me that it wasn't going anywhere fast right now, and I should wait for a better opportunity to press my attack.
its not because im unhappy , its just to compensate the missing exposures , tend to keep my risk within my appetite...
slow doesnt mean market has no direction ...
it just takes longer to get to a point ...

although when u increase size , skew becomes a little different...
it happens automatically for me ... decreasing or increasing size on market vol ...

btw I was just giving example , in practice I increase a little (not double it n all) ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,554
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:29am Jul 7, 2009 6:29am
Quoting ukmanthailan
So was I - edited my post, sorry. I understand what you are saying but I think it is dangerous, for me at least, to increase my size because I am unhappy with the rate of movement in the PA. Rather, it would indicate to me that it wasn't going anywhere fast right now, and I should wait for a better opportunity to press my attack.
I think there are two kind of low volatility, -- one is a steady smooth trend with low volatility like we saw the day before. That's the real trend which we can size up. Another is directionless range with low volatility. That's the range we should avoid overload.
  • #8,555
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:33am Jul 7, 2009 6:33am
Quoting fti
low vol increase size, then high vol appears and you are sitting duck. "impatience & greed knows no bounds".
Only way clear then is expanding spiral within spiral. The safe path is spiral within apiral contraction.
lol true can become sitting ducks if greed n patience not kept checked
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #8,556
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:35am Jul 7, 2009 6:35am
Quoting imjscn
I think there are two kind of low volatility, -- one is a steady smooth trend with low volatility like we saw the day before. That's the real trend which we can size up. Another is directionless range with low volatility. That's the range we should avoid overload.
now, now, don't get rigid now, there are a million variances and possibilities.

dance baby dance

she moved already !
  • #8,557
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:41am Jul 7, 2009 6:41am
Anyways...I've been waiting 3 and a half hours for this move and haven't felt like increasing my size.

I guess it's good we all trade differently or we'd all be chasing the same money.
  • #8,558
  • Edited 7:00am Jul 7, 2009 6:44am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting fti
not sure if there is DVD , mine is VCD boxsets series.

Did a search, yes they have dvd set.
http://stores.moviesville.com/Items/1404440?sck=3063613&caSKU=1404440&caTitle=The%20Romance%20of%20the%20Three%20Kingdoms~42-DVD~Collector%27s

You don't need it, probably expert in 3 kingdoms classics already, don't they teach it in china?
Great! Thanks, Sir! I will get it this weekend.

LOL, I did start reading 3 Kingdoms when I was a little kid. Unfortunately, I decided that ShuiHu was much more fun at that time. Otherwise, I might already be a little expert at that time
3 Kingdom became interesting after I grew up with some history perspectives. But it wasn't so attractive untill I met a western politician. He was very knowledgeable expert about China. From an outsider's views, I started to read 3 Kingdoms in our reality-- politics, public and personal lifes... fancinating.

There are some chapters in school's textbook, but kids normally don't get anything from that. Our education system focus on high score disregarding what's really in the textbook. If lucky, we can meet some high profile teacher in university and be guided into good stuffs. So, most of kids get real good stuffs from family not from teacher. That's a pity.
  • #8,559
  • Edited 7:36am Jul 7, 2009 7:24am | Edited 7:36am
The author of 三国演义 罗贯中 is pro 刘备. So whoever oppose them are play down. If we take the author's bias aside and look carefully to all the events unfold, we can see many are not as what he discribed.

Eg 1: If 关羽 华容道 don't let go 曹操, the whole story have to rewrite.

Eg 2: when 刘备 first asked for help from 诸葛亮, he take whatever 诸葛亮 said and no question asked. But after he become the king, he stopped listening and resulted in his own final defeat.

There are many more, just read with an open mind you will find them.
  • #8,560
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:37am Jul 7, 2009 7:37am
Quoting maheswara
hey imjscn,
is everything allright there ?
saw news 150 dead n 1500 prisoned in xianghao...
oh, well, close windows, drinking tea, enjoy music, make some pips
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