Technical Analysis Fallacy

ive never felt so stupid. range trading is so friggin difficult. lol!

This is my typical day of piggish setup. Fortunately, I detected this setup in the early morning, and completely switched to watch movies after one pig run. That's the only way I can escape away from being piggish

relax guys, your cards will come

jest1081,
it happens sometimes.

no worries... u can avoid ranges for now.
& if u work on it, u may range-trade like a pro, in the future.

I was thinking it was just me that was finding this really hard going today. After logging on here, I'm glad to see it isn't.


After "turning on the wind" twice this morning, I know exactly how you feel. If this had been my first day back on my live account I would probably have gone outside and shot myself for being such a fool! Managed to make a small profit today but it's been very hard work.

ukmanthailan,
if it feels hard work, then it's best to avoid trading when price is in a range/consolidation.
Price rarely trends, markets mostly are in ranges (goes without saying there are minor trends every now & then, & even within ranges).

Rests would be appropriate. we do need them from time to time.
Good luck

This is advice that ALL seasoned Forex Traders heed and newbees need. Overtrading (especially in Forex) = account suicide. I would take it. Good luck though.

Good Morning, fti and all !

ECB: Hard talk, soft policy source: Economist.com
http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2009w27/ECB.jpg
The focus on policy rates may put the ECB in a bad light but these are no longer a reliable guide to the overall monetary-policy stance. If you look at market rates the policy stance in the euro area is as loose as anywhere else, because of stimulus decisions taken at the height of the financial crisis. In October the ECB decided it would offer banks as much cash as they wanted, at a fixed interest rate (the refi rate) and against a wider range of security than usual, for up to six months. It also scheduled extra three-month and six-month refinancing operations, so that banks could come more often to the central-bank well.
In May the ECB council agreed to extend the offer of fixed-rate cash to one year. At the first 12-month refinancing operation on June 24th, euro-zone banks borrowed a staggering €442 billion ($620 billion). With so much cash splashing around, the charge that banks make for overnight loans has stayed well below the refi rate, with some occasional spikes (see chart). Since the €442 billion cash injection, overnight interest rates in the euro zone have fallen to a record low of 0.3%, below those in Britain and scarcely higher than in America. Indeed banks can now borrow more cheaply in euros than in pounds for either three, six or 12 months.
Before the crisis, the ECB would aim to keep overnight interest rates close to the refi rate. Since it moved to unlimited fixed-rate funding, the central bank has been content to allow the overnight rate to drift much lower than the policy rate. In effect, the bank now has a target range for short-term rates: the upper bound is the 1% refi rate and the lower bound is the rate the central bank pays on banks’ deposits with it, currently 0.25%. The deposit rate has been a better guide to the policy stance than the refi rate has. ECB-watchers and markets understand this, even though it has not been spelt out in so many words by Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s president.

http://www.economist.com/images/20090704/CFN703.gif
Why be so coy? One concern is that by playing up the fight against recession, the ECB could appear to have lost sight of inflation. Keeping the totemic refi rate above zero may be seen as necessary to prevent inflation expectations from drifting up. There may also be a reluctance to admit that such a gushing provision of liquidity has altered the policy stance. Since the start of the crisis in August 2007, the ECB has insisted the two are separate. “They are bold on liquidity because they don’t see it as mainstream monetary policy,” says Charles Wyplosz of the Graduate Institute in Geneva. Yet the terms of its refinancing for banks have clearly led to looser monetary conditions.
Another reason for obfuscation is to mask differences among rate-setters. Monetary-policy hawks can reassure themselves that the policy rate is not too low. Doves are happy that effective interest rates are nearer to zero. And Mr Trichet can claim there is a “consensus”. The terms of the truce make it easier to reverse policy when the time comes. By restricting its liquidity support, the ECB will be able to guide overnight interest rates towards 1% without having to alter its policy rate.
Because the ECB has had one eye on the exit since the start of the crisis it has earned plaudits from those who think the Federal Reserve has been incautious. That judgment is too kind to the ECB, which could afford to have scruples about the medium term because other central banks were taking more care of the present. It is also unfair on the Fed, which had to stand in place of America’s collapsed shadow-banking system. When the economy was in most danger, the ECB could have cut rates more quickly. “If the ECB had been more proactive, the recession would have been less bad,” says Marco Annunziata of UniCredit. The striving for consensus militated against bolder action.
Another criticism is that the ECB has not done more to ease credit conditions by buying government and corporate bonds outright, as the Bank of England and the Fed have done. Its scheme to purchase up to €60 billion of the safest bank bonds, launched this month, is modest by comparison. Mr Trichet believes that focus makes sense, as euro-zone businesses and homebuyers rely more on banks than capital markets for credit. In America, capital markets matter more, so the Fed had to get its hands dirtier by buying commercial paper and mortgage-backed securities.
The ECB is also loth to soil its hands with public debt, though banks flush with central-bank cash are keen buyers of such low-risk assets. If this is monetisation at a remove, so be it. The central bank keeps its independence from government and does not have to worry about selling bonds back into the market once the interest-rate cycle turns. “If you want to stay clean, the exit strategy is easier,” says Thomas Mayer of Deutsche Bank.
But offering ample liquidity support to banks gets you only so far. By buying assets, the Fed allows American banks to shed them, freeing scarce capital for fresh lending. As losses mount in the euro zone, capital may trump liquidity in determining credit growth. Lending to the private sector slowed to 1.8% in the year to May, an all-time low. Until credit starts to revive, the ECB cannot think about tightening policy. It may yet have to be bolder.

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Asia Briefing:
Sydney-- fund selling EurUsd to new low;
S&P500-- fall 5 pips more after NFP broke 900;
North Korea is going to test new long range missile;

http://media.economist.com/images/20090530/D2209AS1.jpg


ok, still risk aversion, this time USD is the safe heaven;

Anything else: U.S. holiday
Looking forward: G8 next week.

GBPUSD will rally uptrends from now , 1000 pips, Alloh Willings.

Hi ALL,

Some of you may be wondering about my silence.
The reason is that I was contemplating if, I should write this for you.

And the reason you are reading this is because I felt it a responsibility on my shoulders that that I should leave without.

I feel sadden to inform all, that I shall no longer be around as I had decided to close ALL my accounts for trading FX retail. The reasons for this is many folds, but mostly because I had decided to end this experiment for the reasons following.

After nearly 2 years on this endeavor in this retail forex game. I have come to understand the structure of this emerging industry and that, it is still in its most infant state, that the risks involve in its participation is dangerous for my financials. I find it not prudent to continue although I had much success in terms of returns from the activity. But on my experiences from the activities, I also had red flagged many dangerous possibilities.

I realised from the prices and spreads at extreme stress levels, to be absolutely illiquid. I noticed that, at many of my profitaking levels that although the charts did show certain prices, that I had no price access through the few brokers I had decided to try. They are a combination of ecns, broker/market makers, and "retail spot" for good net-worth individuals (IPB) services. Based on my experiences, with the exception of the spot boys, all had failed to afford me true market access at fastmarkets or high stress support or resistance zones. I had tried numerous esp the "ecns", and had discarded a few, esp the market making ones, due to dissatisfaction of the price and service performance. However after much comparisons and arguments, I feel that in reality, this is happening, most probably due to access illiquidity and that true liquidity and prices was not accorded me by their supporting liquidity providers. This is most likely due to that trading at being small retail from a handful of marketmakers and unmarketable sizes, liquid market access may not had been afforded vis a vis the interbank access.(I feel this because I could free my spot positions with the bank). In essence, I would be inclined to believe the brokers may had tried. Only that they could not provide what they was without.

Further I also realised that because of the unmarketable ticket size, that my positions were probably internally booked by some computers, running on some in-house algorithms, and that such had sight of my blotter all the time, as well as my orders. This I find rather uncomforting, that the broker, also acting to market-make me prices could, if the algos so wished, could "shade" me with full knowledge of my trade intents. I feel, there may be some oversight to this conflict of interest of broker/marketmaker role. I am not sure if the regulators are happy with this existing business structure. I surely wish this displeasure of mine is unfounded, but the feeling nags me on red flags in many of my trade experiences, esp in stressed ss/rr zones.

Moreover, as in all otc market structures, it is hard for customers to exercise much rights, as mostly, I had signed away in the customers agreements, that I am aware of all sorts of conditions that may be detrimental for me. And when arbitration arises , seems to have to deal with absolutely ....,, responses from the brokers. And Without proper surveillance equipment and recording of supporting documentation esp logs and "time & sales" doesn't help.

In consideration, of all this factors , I feel much more comfortable to the confines of Structured markets, where smaller traders may have some protection. I therefore had come to the decision to halt this "wild wild west" adventure, which I feel not prudent to continue. Remembering that I am retired and cannot afford any possibilities of damaging my retirement nestings, esp when I can see so many red flags in the infancy and teething of this markets' development.

I hope all will understand my position. What I had tried to present to you in this thread is almost complete picture of my ways and thoughts in trading, and I hope that it makes useful for you, in your quest.

I will revisit here sometimes, to see if there is any messages for me.

Goodbye ALL.
And Good Fortune.

regards

PS: Happy Independence Day to America

I am saddened to hear that you are leaving forex FTI.
I have learnt alot from your thread.

Good Luck with your next endevour whatever that may be.

Just returned home after driving 10 hours, not news I like to see.

Tis a problem for the small retail trader, risk exposure from broker, fills and many more, and a much higher degree I'm sure for you Fti, but imho with much prudence is exploitable.

I have thought about venturing into futures through CME, with may alleviate some of your concerns, but expand others as market availability is limited on 24/7 concerns.

Much to think about in your post, sorry to see you go.

Best wishes for your future.

j

boss, goodbye and enjoy ur retirement. cheers!

FTI,

I will miss you

V

thank you for everything you have given us , sir ...
I hope someday fate throw it upon us to meet again
take care ...

Then Said a teacher, speak to us of teaching,

and he said, no man can reveal to you aught but that which already lies half asleep in the dawning of your knowledge.


The teacher who walks in the shadow of the temple, among his followers, gives not of his wisdom, but rather of his faith, and his lovingness.


If he is indeed wise he does not bid you enter the house of his wisdom, but rather leads you to the threshold of your own mind.


The astronomer may speak to you of his understanding of space, but he cannot give you his understanding.

The musician may sing to you of the rhythm which is in all space, but he cannot give you the ear which arrests the rhythm nor the voice that echoes it.

And he who is versed in the science of numbers can tell the regions of weight and measure, but he cannot conduct you thither.

For the vision of one man lends not its wings to another man.
And even as each one of you stands alone in God’s knowledge, so must each one of you be alone in his knowledge of God and in his understanding of the earth.

—Kablil Gibran

Dear fti,

I feel so sad to see your leaving. But it's my problem, I'll digest it alone later.

Tons of thanks to you!

Enjoy your leisure retirement. Eat more durian, smoke less!

fti:

Thank you for all the teaching.

Wish you good health, and good luck.

Hi, fti:

Enjoy your retirement life. And good luck to you.

fti,
it's a surprise. Sad to see u go. But understandable.
Maybe it's really time for your retirement. pretty sure u deserve it.
Be sure to lurk & post.
Good luck, God bless & Enjoy!

One of the Smart ones leaving is always a chore to comprehend but, in my opinion, He is not leaving but, moreso, reducing his contribution to that that could be more usefull.

Sail On FTI...
I wish you well