What do I think

Hi,
I decided to write my observation, to make my mind 100% clear when making decision. I have my blog here:
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/ [all free]
I keep track of my thinking there that I will post here too, however if there is any picture up there I will only place a link to it on my blog.


Price action on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change [came out much better than expected] gave me some clear view on what's going on.
Firstly there was quite a big spike up that broke 1.3340 on EU as I said. EU, EJ and UJ pairs apricieated strongly, however retracement on Euro pairs was same quick as quick was jump up [around one hour]. USDJPY did not retreace this way, but UJ plunged during asian session, so news spike can be understeanded as a return to yesterday price.

Overall price action brought me to thought that there's not too much pressure in currencies pot. Price is quite free to go either up or down [hower I would be much happier to open long positions on good news or pullbacks]. So for today I don't see reason for sharp moves, what's more I'm expecting Thursday and Friday to be rather quiet days.

PICTURE

There's new commentary on my blog here:
http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/2009/0...hink-that.html

Apart of market reality I think that recent price action is driven by psychology. My new idea is that there is a bunch of traders that just become less aware of reality because of reality did not gave any sign of itself...

Tere's new post on my blog:

My recent GBPUSD prediction absolutely missed reality. GU decreasd on interest rate, but on friday recoveret strongly. Daily chart however does not look hat bad...

more...

Finally it's time to change my judges. I shouldn't marry my opinion about GBPUSD which I was watching closely recently.

I was waiting for price to retrace, as the pair was moving high for too long and too fast to keep up with such a dynamics.

There is still possibility of move back, however this pair must have some nice potential to move even further up. Maybe not on a news, but in general. I thin that because of total reduction on last news spike I was writing yesterday.

For today I see great breakout setup on GU and already bought some, however there is a chance for it to be broken downward. There i just more room above 1.55 than below 1.54

And here's the chart:
HERE

That's EXACTLY what I meant just about 5 hours ago!
As I have no explanation for this move I've closed all my demo position now. Price have some chance to appreciate more, but in other hand there is plenty of room to shadow this at least partially fake move [this also refer to what I said yesterday about timing].
There is interesting point @ 1.5545 - it's a last swing high before this sweet run up. I have set buy limit there on my demo account as price may bounce for about 50-70 pips from there [it's not a trading advice, whatever you do, you are responsible for it ]

PICTURE

[You are also invited to viit y blog here: http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/]

Have I just said "fake move" yesterday?
Here it goes total reversion to 1.5515 and then bounce to 1.5600 [exactly as I said 50-70 pips from 1.5545]!

Now it's good moment for final decision. If price will go back to touch the top of last rally I would expect it to rise even further [after a little consolidation around 1.58]. If price won't touch that level I would set sell stop at 1.5510, as this might bring some nice 100 points profit in first run, and might be first sign of trend change.

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GBPUSD Is still running up. For tonight I'm leaving buy limit @ 1.5820 with 100 pips SL and sell stop @ 1.5510.

The most unexpected what can happen to me is price ranging after retracement to 1.55

PICTURE

My GBPUSD long order was filled in during early European session. I was very good in predicting a bit bigger move down so my 100 pips SL was not triggered.

Now when price will break 1.59 I will start to manage this trade by moving SL somewhere higher.
There is possible scenario from two days ago, that price will go strongly up and then shadow most of that move, so I will possibly be out around 6pm GMT.

PICTURE

If price will reach 1.5755 [last wing low] I will try to close it with no gains.
If it bounce before reaching that resistance, I will move SL to 1.5755 ad then to next swing ow after price will return above new high @ 1.5950

PICTURE

P.S.
Comments welcome

As there was no any extraordinary price action I have closed my GU position with 97 pips gain. The only reason for that is closing position before market close on Friday

Here is some analisys of Risk/Reward ratio [also my blog ]
In terms of Risk/Reward ratio I wouldn't say that it was 1:1. Please keep in mind, that my 100 pips SL was placed in case some accident happened.It's not exactly same thing...

PICTURE

Today European session showed nice plunge on both GU and EU pairs. As Euro seems for me to be more vulnerable to risk aversion I would expect it to firstly retrace and secondly fall maybe even further. Good retracing trigger is US CB Consumer Confidence, so if there will be no retracement before that I would hope for good news and sell after move up. The problem is how far up can it move, or how long would it move up on good US news. I see nice resistance @ 1.3944 [it's last swing down before plunge] However I expect to be stopped out maybe two times before real move down will begin. Dependably on difference between expected and released data and initial price action I would expect to place first order around 5-15 min after news, if it didn't work, next half an hour up to one hour may be next good moment, and the third one will be after 2-3 hours.

CHART

UJ appreciated over 100 pips last night after I posted my long sentiment on this pair. EU raised around 60 pips at the same time, however now it retraces and I'm demo-shorting it from 1.3874.

For US news I see opportunity to short EU even further, however I'm not sure what impact exactly may be. But there is much more room below it's current price than above.
UJ have some chance for small retracement, but general trend is still up.


CHART

It's more and more obvious that something much bigger is on the line. GU goes plainly up as it was not planning to turn back anytime soon, UE retrace from time to time but nothing big downward, as if skyrocketing prices did not generate any sell pressure among traders.

Under such circumstances I'm going to make some huge step back to draw fibs from last year july high and follow monthly pivots. Will post some of my charts with lines soon.
Yet I won't comment on current charts and wait for tommorow news. To make it easier to watch I've started to post screens of 30M charts from previous data release. You can see it here:
http://fx-tool.blogspot.com
I'm just starting, but I have already posted charts for Pending Home Sales what you may find helpfull for tommorow trading

It's a hard time when you figure out that there is no gains with no risk.
It may get you when last position was looser and you think if it's a good idea to open again
It may get you, when last time was looser, and now your position is on a regain-last-loss level, but you still see the room for it to go further, however don't see any room to lower your current SL what keeps you aware that it still may be another loss.

My way of overcoming it is to be aware of nothing. I'm just look at price action as it was meaningless for me. As only involved thing was my trading plan, not money [trading plan not only for this given position, but general trading plan for this expected downtrend what means that if not this trade, maybe next one will succed.

I'm shortening EU and GU again as I said yesterday but there is no any special signal. I keep my SL at top of today [GU:1.6176 EU:1.3965]and TP around the bottom of yesterday [GU:1.5800 EU:1.3805].

You can see this article on my blog here
PS you can subscribe me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Krysztau

This week I'm waiting for either breaking up above recent high 1.6662 or below recent low 1.5800.

If it will happen during important news I would expect even price to not retrace around that level. If it will be broken during regular activity I will wait for retracement, and then enter with some small SL aiming for huge profit [300 - 500 pips]


fx-sniper.blogspot.com

I'm still bearish in my mind. Two recent news action brought massive decreases on GU, however yesterday GU regained almost all of its loses. Today retail sales move GU down again, however this time it broke latest resistance 1.62, and yet it did not even gave a sign of retracement, so maybe it's a sign of moving further down. There is still US Unemployment Claims on its way, that might be nice trigger to break firmly 1.62 support, however...

more

I give up all my opinions. Lack of direction lasted long enough, so both directions make sens. For now it seems that investors make some adventage of interest rate diferential so maybe the longer GU and EU will last on their levels the better for them. I'm reading Alchemy of finance by G. Soros, and geting more and more convinience that every move on the market will bounce back sooner or later. Will see and post. For tomorrow there is one my favourite data release: Existing Home Sales. If nothing significant will happen this may be nice trigger for move back up to 1.65 on GU or 1.3950 on EU. But I only good or neutral release will be good for taking long, and only if price will remain unchanged during the European session.


See my FX blog here

Tuesday fundamentals did not affected the market however marked moved around 200 pips up on GU and EU. As it seems to be ranging time there is time for contraction today or tommorow.
Home Sales data will be strong mover today.
Best scenario would be trade short on reversal after about half an hour of rising on EU and GU after release.

See full blog: http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com/

http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com update:
I see a lot of fuuz around 1.6660 level [ by myself placed SL at that level]. Today US Consumer Confidence is in my opinion crucial for nearest future of GU. Personally I will trade it long especially if data were neutral or better than expected. If before the news price will be not more than 80 pips from current top @1.6743 I expect it to go even further. If it's too far from it we will probabily see either no action up or 50-80 pips up within firs 1,5-2 hours just to rebound to prerelease price.

If price will break current top before the news I would be very cautious as both direction would be possible regardless of level of confidence.


full article

http://fx-sniper.blogspot.com update:

First of all Consumer Confidence was lower than expected, secondly at a release time it was 200 pips below today top. As none of my condition was filled I did not trade it at all, however it's worth of attention that bad US news caused another 100 pips decrease with not much sign of bounce back yet. Therefore I have no any prefered direction of trading for tommorow. I expect manufacturing PMI to triger change of local trend, and non-farm payroll to dictate trend for nearest week or two.

As an ilustration, there's a picture of today GU 30 min chart.

PICTURE