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Silent Service Method

  • #2,421
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:36am Jun 30, 2009 5:36am
Quoting jicjoc
Also watching longs on eurjpy. Nothing else interesting...

Id be all over ej only eurusd is at the top of its range and looks to be pinning on daily, definitely not enough to trade, but enough to cause a little retrace. So ej will go lower yet before it bounces. It will bounce, it broke free from its little box yesterday
Dammit...
Missed it...
  • #2,422
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:28am Jun 30, 2009 6:28am
I'm not overly impressed with mt4 mobile. I thought it'd have a bit more functionality than it actually has. It does definitely do the job though, pretty robust at what it does. I can see myself using it to move stops and monitor trades but wouldn't want to take trading decisions based on it.

What I do like however is that I can just connect my laptop to the phone and get online that way wherever I am
  • #2,423
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:31am Jun 30, 2009 6:31am
[off-topic]
If you have a home PC you can setup a remote desktop connection. That way you can use the full MT4 at home, configure it to send text alerts to your phone and monitor stuff while you're not around, and just use the laptop to make decisions.
  • #2,424
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:42am Jun 30, 2009 6:42am
Quoting hel13rock
I'm not overly impressed with mt4 mobile. I thought it'd have a bit more functionality than it actually has. It does definitely do the job though, pretty robust at what it does. I can see myself using it to move stops and monitor trades but wouldn't want to take trading decisions based on it.

What I do like however is that I can just connect my laptop to the phone and get online that way wherever I am

Exactly.
  • #2,425
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:44am Jun 30, 2009 6:44am
Quoting jicjoc
fxpro has a whopper of a 4hour GU pin, closed and everything. 100 pip long nose. Perfect.
Normally i dont touch pins at the top of a range in an uptrend. Too dodgy against the trend.
This is very tempting though

What do you think Chris?
Most of the time, the best pins are at extremes.
  • #2,426
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:46am Jun 30, 2009 6:46am
Quoting SaepeExertus
clockwork71 Excellent thread. I certainly appreciate it.
As an fnb and late arrival I’m just getting to pg 20. As I see it, you have laid out within 20 pages a mythology that rivals Warren Buffet himself..

One of the advantages a fnb has, is his book of dumb and stupid questions if filled with nothing but blank pages.

In your AUDUSD weekly chart you have on pg 20 r/s at 0.7996 and 0.6270. I understood the ending numbers should be 50 or 00. I believe I understand the reasoning.
(uniform pips= easier management?)

On my chart I have the...

That on eat .96 was me being sloppy - ignore it. Should be 00
  • #2,427
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:47am Jun 30, 2009 6:47am
Quoting hel13rock
My thought on how far you should look back on charts to look for s/r lines or zones is that s/r tends to occur at or very near to round numbers. These round numbers acted as s/r in the past due to the pyschological effect on traders of price reaching those levels. Once these levels have been touched the first time as price approaches them the second or subsequent times they will tend to be even stronger levels.

A good example is the 1.30 level on usdcad. Zoom a weekly chart right out and you can see it react to this level in 1992, 1993 and 2003....
Very well put.
  • #2,428
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:57am Jun 30, 2009 6:57am
Quoting hel13rock
This could already be obvious to everyone or I may have just stumbled upon something useful, bear with me...

I'm short eurgbp at the moment, I sold it not much below 86 as it seems to be holding below that.

Eurgbp is calculated directly from gbpusd and eurusd. So, if gbpusd goes up more than eurusd or if one goes down in relation to the other then eurgbp will change in accordance with that. So far quite clear.

Now then, if you were just concentrating on eurgbp for your technical analysis you would be fine. 86 has acted as support on the way...

In my thinking, what you are getting at is something called relative strength. There are two main pairs I use to gauge it. EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD. The reason I use those two is twofold: 1) Both pairs represent each countries largest trading partner, and 2) These currencies tend to move in tandem against the USD.

What I mean by #1 is obvious, but #2 is this: EUR/USD and GBP/USD will quite often move in the same direction. So will the two other pairs.

So all tings being equal, if we have a long set up in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, you can look at the EUR/GBP to see what's going on. More to the point, who is stronger. If EUR/GBP is trending up strongly, and there is a set up in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.....you want to go long EUR/USD.

Why? Because it's about buying the strongest, and selling the weakest. In our scenario above, the order of strength would be the following:

1) EUR
2) GBP
3) USD

Which do you want to own???? Which one do you want to get rid of? It's a simple matter of strength.

I actually did a couple of videos on this subject in the PF, dealing with various ways to gauge stregth of individual currencies. (I believe I used those two pairs in the first video, and the CZK in the second as a more difficult example.)

If you think about it, this makes sense. I swear.

As for your other pair - once you get to GBP/AUD (I think that was the pair) - you need to measure the 2 currencies against a basket of other currencies to get an overall picture in my opinion. It gets a little more diluted at that point to look at just GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

CW
  • #2,429
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:03am Jun 30, 2009 7:03am
Ok, thanks, that clears up a few things in my mind.

I think what you're saying is that I've got it roughly right in my head and it is something worth thinking about but maybe I need to think about it a little bit more before I can usefully use the information.
  • #2,430
  • Edited 8:11am Jun 30, 2009 8:01am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting clockwork71
In my thinking, what you are getting at is something called relative strength. There are two main pairs I use to gauge it. EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD. The reason I use those two is twofold: 1) Both pairs represent each countries largest trading partner, and 2) These currencies tend to move in tandem against the USD.

What I mean by #1 is obvious, but #2 is this: EUR/USD and GBP/USD will quite often move in the same direction. So will the two other pairs.

So all tings being equal, if we have a long set up in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, you can...
Excellent post...
Thanks!
  • #2,431
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:49am Jun 30, 2009 9:49am
Candlesticks and daily pivot points on a 15 minute chart a la John Pearson? I don't think so... although he does sound plausable. I've got Dow Jones on my other broker with some cash to spare. Took a bounce off of weekly r1 and low and behold, closed it at +$15, could've taken +$75, what a berk.

Well, might keep an eye on that but I'm not convinced. The silent service method is working great for me anyway, would I want to bother trading intraday?
  • #2,432
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:01am Jun 30, 2009 10:01am
Eurgbp, usdjpy starting to come within range.
Gold also has fallen off the chart from 943. It had to...
  • #2,433
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:04am Jun 30, 2009 10:04am
Gold is a funny thing to trade. Most of the time it makes very small daily candles and then every now and then it goes crazy! I think I would only ever trade this long term. I've still got a couple of trades on this from 955 and I'm keeping them til 865 but it's weird to watch it's daily moves.
  • #2,434
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:19am Jun 30, 2009 10:19am
Quoting hel13rock
Gold is a funny thing to trade. Most of the time it makes very small daily candles and then every now and then it goes crazy! I think I would only ever trade this long term. I've still got a couple of trades on this from 955 and I'm keeping them til 865 but it's weird to watch it's daily moves.
Agreed. Gold moves on so many different things, it is really hard to trade on small time frames. It's a lot like trying to scalp AUD/NZD, it can be done.....but it's a lot of work.

Gold is more of a long term play in my opinion.

CW
  • #2,435
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:39am Jun 30, 2009 10:39am
http://i40.tinypic.com/20f5aol.png
  • #2,436
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:47am Jun 30, 2009 10:47am
Quoting Low
http://i40.tinypic.com/20f5aol.png

If you like to play silver - I recommend SLV, the ETF. It's not as whippy.
  • #2,437
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:57am Jun 30, 2009 10:57am
I wouldn't be going long gold or silver at the moment. As you know I'm short gold and silver does seem to be following it.
  • #2,438
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:01am Jun 30, 2009 11:01am
Ah so Xag is Silver. Ta!

That was a beaut of a move.
Started yeaterday when it hit off 14.30.
Thanks!
  • #2,439
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:02am Jun 30, 2009 11:02am
Quoting hel13rock
. As you know I'm short gold and silver does seem to be following it.
Well....one of us had to be right.

Cheers
  • #2,440
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:34am Jun 30, 2009 11:34am
LOL, I'm only right because I'm trading at such a low volume I can short gold at 955 and not care if it reaches $1500 an ounce! I'm reckoning on 865 before too long and I'll be up a few hundred bucks.

Wouldn't go long either still though.
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