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4H Box Breakout

  • #681
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:17am Jun 30, 2009 2:17am
hello matlobien:
could you tell us your "one other breakout system",thanks
  • #682
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:31am Jun 30, 2009 2:31am
Quoting kepalalutut
Tanyasiapa, I cant agree with you more! It's hard to determine (as usual) where is the real destination of GJ. Even a 10 years experience traders also being 'cheated' by this pairs. So, just need to be a little more alert.

BTW, my 'daily average' shows that GJ can go as high as 160.94 for today, and as low as 157.88. So if my beloved GJ go below 157.88, I WILL CLOSE THE TRADE. Hehehe! Not to disrespect ACE (our thread owner), but I can't loose 'so much'.

@Jtrade: Can you post the ATR indicator as you shown in post #671. Very much appreciated.

@Tanyasiapa....
May i know how you know the daily average of GJ?and is it different from ATR? Ace said that he uses ATR as a filter to this method, and he said that it never turns him down.. Ace, can you please explain more about using ATR to filter the trade?

Kepalalutut : Great!! Welcome my brother..

Happy pipping..
  • #683
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:50am Jun 30, 2009 2:50am
Quoting tanyasiapa
May i know how you know the daily average of GJ?and is it different from ATR? Ace said that he uses ATR as a filter to this method, and he said that it never turns him down.. Ace, can you please explain more about using ATR to filter the trade?

Kepalalutut : Great!! Welcome my brother..

Happy pipping..
Here goes the indicator. But bare in mind that this indicator is DAILY average while our trading is WEEKLY type, unless some kind-hearted guys willing to tweak this indicator to suit WEEKLY Average.. hehehe!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 (T_S_R)-Daily Range Display#2.mq4   8 KB | 652 downloads
  • #684
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:59am Jun 30, 2009 2:59am
Quoting aidans
Thank Ace284 give us this perfect set-and-forget system,...
Hi,
It's great to see you backtest the system. I myself backtested this system MANUALLY (ouch..that was hurting my eyes a lot..lol) from Jan 08 to June 09. And only after i backtested it, i believe in this system. One strong point of this system is that we always get good R:R whether it's 1:2, 1:3, even 1:4. That money management is the one that will lead us to success IMO.

I have attached my manual backtest in excel. It's not so sophisticated though, i didnt intend to show that to others, but here are the quick summary :

GJ
In Jan-Des 08 this pair made around +1868 pips. The worst lost is Mar 08 with -1329 pips. The best win is Oct 08 with +1873 pips. I'm using TP 3x with static SL at the other side of the box.

In Jan-Jun 09 this pair made a whoopy +4564 pips. The best month is Jan with 2493 pips (4 weeks with 3x TP,awesome !!). Since then it only lost during Mar with -91 pips. Later, i concluded that it's better to pass a trade with 250pips or more box size, since it is to dangerous for my account.


EJ
Jan 08-Des 08 made +1554 pips. THe worst month is Mar with -685 loss (combined it with GJ's loss..whew...account destroyer??) The best month is Des with 806 pips. I'm using 2x TP and SL at the other side of box for this pair.

Jan-Jun 09 it made 3320 pips! Best month is Jan with 1332 pips worst month is May with -109 pips.


Both pair combined in 2008 made 3422 pips, and in 2009 till June made 6912 pips!!

Some things i learn from manual backtest is:
1. It's better to pass a trade with a box size > 250 pips. while it's true that in the right time it will give you a huge amount of pips if it hits your TP, you still need to protect your account.
2. Some of the losses could've been avoided if we moved the SL to BEP. Right now, i moved my GJ SL to BEP after it hits 2x (with 3x as TP), and EJ SL to BEP after it hits 1x (2x as TP).

Hope this help you out...If you read my backtest, i'm sorry if it isnt clear enough for you...

Happy pipping...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Backtest 4H BreakOut.xls   44 KB | 705 downloads
  • #685
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:57am Jun 30, 2009 3:57am
Quoting haojzh
hello matlobien:
could you tell us your "one other breakout system",thanks
1 Trade a day from Paulus.
Only GU. Today I don't trade - Box to big - 200 pips
  • #686
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:06am Jun 30, 2009 4:06am
Quoting tanyasiapa
Hi,
It's great to see you backtest the system. I myself backtested this system MANUALLY (ouch..that was hurting my eyes a lot..lol) from Jan 08 to June 09. And only after i backtested it, i believe in this system. One strong point of this system is that we always get good R:R whether it's 1:2, 1:3, even 1:4. That money management is the one that will lead us to success IMO.

I have attached my manual backtest in excel. It's not so sophisticated though, i didnt intend to show that to others, but here are the quick summary :

GJ
In Jan-Des 08 this...
Exactly how I trade this method.
Very conservatively. Rather BE than SL. Also only 2x or 3x
I also trade AJ.
And yes if box is to big I don't trade.
  • #687
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:11am Jun 30, 2009 4:11am
Quoting matlobien
Exactly how I trade this method.
Very conservatively. Rather BE than SL. Also only 2x or 3x
I also trade AJ.
And yes if box is to big I don't trade.
Matloebin, how you determine a 'BIG' box? how many pips?
  • #688
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:22am Jun 30, 2009 4:22am
Quoting kepalalutut
Matloebin, how you determine a 'BIG' box? how many pips?
As Tanya said: >250
200 also makes me a bit uneasy.
Remember 2x is then 400 and 3x is 600
  • #689
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:44am Jun 30, 2009 7:44am
This is a very nice thread for those looking to trade this market aswell as commodities. I have been trading a Breakout system which is very similiar and the results are not all that different (this system is taken off the 4 hours candle, I trade a variable breakout based on the previous weeks close). The entry points are similiar but this system looks easier from a new traders perspective because it has a distguishing candle to trade off and some very simple guidelines.

I do like the fact that many of you have done some research and backtested this system, in alot of cases more throughrally than most I see.

The one thing I can say is that there will be some drawdown periods as tanyasiapa mentioned and the goal is to stick to the plan. If you dont trade the plan then you wont get those great results. Drawdown is a fact of trading, the spreadsheet that showed the EUR/JPY was great. The most interesting part (if I read it correctly) was that the systems Ave Win % was less than 50% but the PF (profit/price factor) was up averaging around 1.50. That in itself shows that this has a viable edge if you trade it correctly (even just changing you buffer will still net great results, its a variable system) then in the long run you will get great results.

Last a question, does anyone leave a portion of there trade to run. I know most are aiming for 3x profit which no-one will argue with but does anyone take trades that are in the direction of the major trend (weekly is probably best as this is more a weekly outlook setup) with a small % left to run in the event that you can catch a trade. Holding a position for much longer than 3:1 can help substantially over the long haul with smoothing your equity curve.

Great job all, and a very nice start for those who took the switch through Mid Monday (if thats how you play it)

Take it easy
  • #690
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:02am Jun 30, 2009 9:02am
Quoting cruze2005
Last a question, does anyone leave a portion of there trade to run. I know most are aiming for 3x profit which no-one will argue with but does anyone take trades that are in the direction of the major trend (weekly is probably best as this is more a weekly outlook setup) with a small % left to run in the event that you can catch a trade. Holding a position for much longer than 3:1 can help substantially over the long haul with smoothing your equity curve.

Great job all, and a very nice start for those who took the switch through Mid Monday (if...
I look at the daily and weekly to see where the trend might go based on s/r and if it has potential I'll just let the trade run for the whole week
  • #691
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:20am Jun 30, 2009 9:20am
Quoting matlobien
I really want to thank you again.

Using this system and one other breakout system on Forex Factory I managed to double my live account in 1 month.

For newbies, please be patient and learn from the Masters on this forum.
It took me 7 years and I am still learning every day.

The pips will follow you.
Appreciate it = )
  • #692
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:51am Jun 30, 2009 9:51am
Quoting lolpie
I look at the daily and weekly to see where the trend might go based on s/r and if it has potential I'll just let the trade run for the whole week
  • #693
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:52am Jun 30, 2009 9:52am
Heyas everyone, just wanted to say I joined this site yesterday, been reading pretty much this thread only for the last week. Opened up a demo account and started in on it. I read this entire thread and this system seems very successful and I want to thank ace for it. If I have some success with it I may open up a micro account and go for it =)

Currently, I check the progress of the chart each day just cuz Im excited lol, so I am trying my hardest to not pull out when things look tough. Currently looks like its goin back down...eek hope it goes back up.

I am trading GBP/JPY and have TP set to x3. I have couple indicators goin and using that spread sheet posted earlier in the thread to see the TP points. Had to make a correction to the spreadsheet dont think it was calculating stuff correctly. Also, have the nonlag MA going...I can see how this would be useful if you watched the progress of the trade throughout the entire week. - According to the current red line its showing, I should take my profts now...going off what the MA shows in previous months. But, will ride the system through anyways =)


I have a question though, when you guys mention RE what does this stand for? Everything else think I have goin good.
  • #694
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:55am Jun 30, 2009 9:55am
Quoting tanyasiapa
May i know how you know the daily average of GJ?and is it different from ATR? Ace said that he uses ATR as a filter to this method, and he said that it never turns him down.. Ace, can you please explain more about using ATR to filter the trade?

Kepalalutut : Great!! Welcome my brother..

Happy pipping..
Yes, good question to bring up. I have discussed this before but I think its pretty important to discuss again.

ATR for those of you who don't know is, average true range. The indicator comes with Metatrader 4.

Open a weekly chart with GBP/JPY or any pair, and throw an ATR(16) onto the chart. You'll see a number next to the ATR(16).
Mine reads ATR(16) 6.5731.

So if in a week, the price moves 300 pips north. You would cancel your short order because IF a short does get activated, the price will most likely not reach TP 4x or 3x.

Below is a chart to show what I mean.

* Now keep in mind that on average the price shouldn't reach certain levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: atr.gif Size: 63 KB
  • #695
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:05am Jun 30, 2009 10:05am
Quoting GenTarkin
Heyas everyone, just wanted to say I joined this site yesterday, been reading pretty much this thread only for the last week. Opened up a demo account and started in on it. I read this entire thread and this system seems very successful and I want to thank ace for it. If I have some success with it I may open up a micro account and go for it =)

Currently, I check the progress of the chart each day just cuz Im excited lol, so I am trying my hardest to not pull out when things look tough. Currently looks like its goin back down...eek hope it goes...

RE or BE?
BE means break even
  • #696
  • Edited 11:02am Jun 30, 2009 10:49am | Edited 11:02am
Must be BE Im thinkin of, in that case I was guessing it was break even, just wanted to make sure =)

Also, in the standard MT4 is there a s/r indicator? What does S/R stand for?
Thanks
  • #697
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:36am Jun 30, 2009 11:36am
Quoting GenTarkin
Must be BE Im thinkin of, in that case I was guessing it was break even, just wanted to make sure =)

Also, in the standard MT4 is there a s/r indicator? What does S/R stand for?
Thanks
Support and Resistance. Its doesn't come with Metatrader 4, you have to download it.
  • #698
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:19pm Jun 30, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting tanyasiapa
We won't really know where GBPJPY will be several days more.. But i have several area i watch carefully, S/R line at 160.43 and 162.48 and also 165.37. We all can't know for sure whether the pair will break those levels or not, we just watch those levels and watch price action there. For GBPJY, i think it still have good chance to hit at least 3x based on the S/R line. But we all dont know what the market will do.

For EURJPY, it has hitted my TP at 2x for +155 pips profit. Minus 81 pips loss yesterday, it will add +74 pips for EURJPY this week....

Hey tanyasiapa, is there an indicator for that picture you posted that can show me the same thing? S&R and trend? Can ya link it for me?
  • #699
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:24pm Jun 30, 2009 12:24pm
Fantastic system.Watching the chart below,GBPUSD just hit the tp4 on the upside trade.Now the downside trade has opened again.I pray for another journey mercy to the tp4 down.
Attached Image
we cannot succeed without a well defined risk management.
  • #700
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:41pm Jun 30, 2009 12:41pm
GBPJPY has also reached the tp4 of the upside trade.The chart below clearly shows it.More power to the elbow of the starter of this thread.This is a 5-star thread.
Attached Image
we cannot succeed without a well defined risk management.
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